After getting two home wins in the last week, the Lobos (7-3-0, 1-1-0) head east to Charlotte (6-2-0, 2-1-0) for the biggest conference match of the season for both sides. The winner of this match will have a great shot at winning the Conference USA regular season title as well as a national seed for the NCAA Tournament. For the Lobos, this is a huge opportunity to get the huge road win that has escaped them so far this year. They have lost three heartbreakers against three nationally-ranked teams, each by the score of 1-0. What was heartbreaking about those three matches is that the Lobos gave up goals in somewhat fluky ways, as the games against Indiana and Notre Dame were each won by a penalty kick, and Kentucky scored on a missed-hit strike that worked wonders. The Lobos are extremely talented and are capable of not just staying with the Charlotte side, but could even outplay them by a good margin. The question will be can they find a goal or two to win the match? Opportunities will be limited in this match, so it is imperative to make the most of any chance that you get. Niko Hansen or Chris Wehan need to do something special to put the Lobos out in front in this match and give the Lobos the huge road win.
Charlotte Stats:
| Charlotte | Opponents | |
| Goals | 18 (7 1st Half, 11 2nd Half) | 4 (1 1st Half, 3 2nd Half) |
| Goals Per Game | 2.25 | .5 |
| Shots On Goal | 46-104 (.442) | 22-67 (.328) |
| Shots Per Game | 13.0 | 8.4 |
| Assists | 16 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks | 51 | 29 |
- Charlotte is led in goal scoring by Harrison Steadman (5 goals), but the two playmakers to watch are Marco Sunol-Rojas (3 goals, 3 assist) and Brandt Bronico (1 goal, 4 assist). The Lobo defense needs to limit these two players’ impact on the match.
- Charlotte’s scoring is a little misleading, as in their first two matches of the year they scored 11 of their 18 goals on the season. So in their last six matches, they have scored seven goals. They have a good attack, but are more around a 1.5 goals per match scoring team than what their raw stats show.
- Elliot Panicco has played every minute in goal for Charlotte and has been great, with a .49 Goals Against Average and 5 shutouts.
Lobo Stats:
| New Mexico | Opponents | |
| Goals | 16 (5 1st Half, 11 2nd Half) | 5 (2 1st Half, 3 2nd Half) |
| Goals Per Game | 1.6 | .5 |
| Shots On Goal | 68-143 (.476) | 40-96 (.417) |
| Shots Per Game | 14.3 | 9.6 |
| Assists | 10 | 9.6 |
| Corner Kicks | 64 | 44 |
- Jason Beaulieu didn’t allow a goal in either match at home this last week, but didn’t get a shutout in either game because he didn’t play the full 90 minutes. While Beaulieu didn’t get the shutouts, he improved his Goals Against Average to .40. Beaulieu will be very important in the match and if he is able to make one or two great saves, it should be good enough for a Lobos victory.
- Niko Hansen continued his great play at home on Tuesday night, scoring his 8th goal of the season, including 4 game-winners. Hansen will be key in the match and could be the difference between the two sides. The Lobos need to find Hansen in dangerous spots and hope that he can break through early in the match.
- The Lobos have to be ready for counter attacks in this match and make sure that the communication between the goalie, backline and midfield is fantastic. If they are able to keep their formation, I like the Lobos chances to get the win, because it would take a world-class effort to find a goal.
Conference USA Standings
| Team | Conference Record | Conference Points | Overall Record |
| South Carol
ina |
2-0-0 | 6 | 7-3-0 |
| Charlotte | 2-1-0 | 6 | 6-2-0 |
| Kentucky | 2-1-0 | 6 | 7-2-2 |
| UAB | 1-1-1 | 4 | 5-2-1 |
| UNM | 1-1-0 | 3 | 7-3-0 |
| Marshall | 1-2-0 | 3 | 5-6-0 |
| FIU | 1-2-0 | 3 | 3-6-1 |
| FAU | 1-2-0 | 3 | 3-6-1 |
| ODU | 0-1-1 | 1 | 3-4-2 |
- Tiers are starting to shape up for the conference race, and if the Lobos win this match, they will be in a good position to challenge for the Conference USA title. A loss doesn’t end the Lobos chances, but it does limit their opportunities.
- Right now I would separate the conference into two tiers: South Carolina, Charlotte, Kentucky, UAB and UNM as tier 1, with Marshall, FIU, FAU and ODU as tier two. Each team in tier 1 is in a good spot for an NCAA Tournament selection.
Match Prediction:
This is going to be a great match that will feature two great defensive sides going head to head. Opportunities should be at a premium and, in all probability, it will take a world-class effort for either side to find a goal. The most likely outcome of this match is a 0-0 draw, with both teams only getting one or two great chances. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this match at 31% and coming away with a result at 68%. I will take the Lobos in a 1-0 win with Chris Wehan scoring the goal, as the Lobos are going to have fortunes turn in these big matchups on the road at some point, so that might as well be now.
Game Info:
Who: New Mexico Lobos (7-3-0, 1-1-0) at Charlotte (6-2-0, 2-1-0)
When: Saturday, October 8th, 2016, 5 PM M.T.
Where: Transamerica Field, Charlotte, North Carolina
Stream: conferenceusa.com (There is a fee)