Coming off of a beating at the hand of Boise State, the Lobos will look to regroup this weekend when they play Air Force in a neutral game in the Cotton Bowl. Last year, the Lobos won a wild one against the Falcons, 47-35, and I have a feeling that this game will be similarly high-scoring.
A Little About Air Force
Last year’s somewhat-surprising Mountain Division Champions, the Air Force Falcons are off to another great start to their season. Led by 10th-year head coach Troy Calhoun, the Falcons are sitting at 4-1 on the season, with a 1-1 record in the Mountain West. The sole loss on the season came last week at Wyoming, where the Falcons fell 35-26, thanks in large part to the four turnovers they committed. Despite those mistakes, they managed to score a touchdown to pull within 2 with 3:31 left in the game. I’m sure they spent this week trying to tighten things up so that sort of thing doesn’t happen again.
Like the Lobos, Air Force is known for running a triple-option offense. That’s easily evidenced in their play calling, as they run the ball more than four times as often as they throw it. When they do throw it, though, they’re going for a homerun. Their quarterback, senior Nate Romine, has only attempted 65 passes in their five games, completing just 27 of them. However, he’s still thrown for 809 yards and 7 touchdowns. That means that when he completes a pass, on average it goes for almost 30 yards. The main benefactor of those deep balls has been 6’4” senior wide receiver Jalen Robinette, who has caught 14 passes on the season for 386 yards and 3 touchdowns.
So, because of the Falcon’s emphasis on the run, we’ll be hearing a lot out of the backfield. The primary rusher has been fullback D.J. Johnson, who has 73 attempts on the season for 329 yards. However, he’s yet to score a touchdown this year. The more explosive threats are senior tailback Jacobi Owens, who averages 6.7 yards per carry, junior wide receiver Tyler Williams, who averages 6.3 yards per carry, and our old friend, junior tailback Timothy McVey, who averages 8.4 yards per carry. You may remember McVey for his 5-touchdown game against the Lobos last year, unless you’ve successfully blocked that performance out.
On defense, the Falcons are led by junior linebacker Grant Ross, who leads the team with 39 tackles, and by senior safety WESTON STEELHAMMER. Awesome name aside, Steelhamer is on several national award shortlists, is second on the team with 29 tackles, and leads the team with 2 interceptions. The Falcons also have a couple of strong pass rushers, with senior defensive lineman Ryan Watson leading the team with 6 sacks and senior linebacker Haji Dunn Jr. right behind him with 4 sacks on the season.
Some Relevant Stats
- After facing a Boise State team ranked 3rd in rushing defense by Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings, the Lobos get a break this week by facing Air Force, who is ranked… 5th Air Force has only given up more than 100 yards rushing once this season, last week at Wyoming, and managed to shut down Navy’s run-focused offense to the tune of 38 attempts for 57 yards. The Lobos did have some success rushing the ball against Boise State, and they’ll need to do the same if they want to come away with a win against the Falcons.
- Advanced metrics can’t seem to make up their mind about the Falcons overall, as they’re 38th in FEI, 70th in FPI, and 80th in S&P+. For reference, the Lobos are 117th, 98th, and 93rd, respectively. That means that while those ratings all see the Lobos as a well below-average team, they see the Falcons as anywhere from a team that would be competitive in a Power 5 conference to a below-average team. Given the quality of the Falcons’ schedule so far, it’s hard to say what to believe at this point, but it’s unsurprising that they are currently 14-point favorites in this game.
- If you’ve felt like the Lobos have been giving up a lot of first downs due to penalties, you’re not alone. So far this season, they’ve given up 2.8 first downs due to penalties on average, which is tied for 7th in the Nation. That’s a lot of drives kept alive due to mistakes by the Lobos, many of which can and should be avoided. Hopefully this trend will end soon.
Scattered Thoughts
- It looks like Austin Apodaca is out again this week, which means that it rests on Lamar Jordan once again to lead the offense. His game against Boise State was a mixed bag, as it featured some effective running by the quarterback, but one of his worst passing performances. I hope that we can chalk it up to a strong Boise State defense, because for the Lobos to be successful on offense, the explosive running game needs to be complemented by at least the threat of a pass. We’ve seen Lamar show the ability to create big plays in the air in the past, so we know he can do it. Let’s hope that he can start showing it again against the Falcons.
- With the Lobos and Air Force both losing last week, only Boise State and Wyoming from the Mountain Division are currently undefeated in conference play. Boise State clearly seems like the class of the division right now, but Wyoming looks like they might be the most improved team from last season. The Lobos close their season out against the Cowboys in a game that could end up deciding whether or not the Lobos are bowl-eligible. It doesn’t look like it will be a gimmie, that’s for sure.
Prediction
Going into this game, I have to wonder how well the Lobos will bounce back from getting blown out by Boise State last weekend. That game felt like the sort that could either put the team into a tailspin or be the sort of wakeup call that gets them going. If it’s the former, this game could get ugly quickly. However, I’m more inclined to think that we’ll see the latter, with the game being a high-scoring, but close affair. I think the Falcons will probably end up winning with a score something like 45-38, but if the Lobos get a couple of breaks, they can absolutely come out with a win.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (2-3) vs. Air Force Falcons (4-1)
When: Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 1:30 MT
Where: The Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX
Watch: ESPN News
Listen: 770 KKOB