A week after a hard-fought and emotional win against Air Force in the Cotton Bowl, the Lobos return home for their last out-of-conference game of the year. Their opponent is the University of Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, who are conference-mates of NMSU in the Sun Belt. A win would put the Lobos back above .500 for the first time since the first game of the season and put them in a good position to become bowl-eligible heading into the last part of the season.

A Little about UL-Monroe

The Warhawks are led by head coach Matt Viator, who is in his first year at ULM. Not only is it his first year as the head coach for the Warhawks, it’s his first year in the FBS. Previously, he spent 10 seasons as the head coach at McNeese State, an FCS school, making the playoffs five times. The program he took over was in rough shape, only winning games against an FCS school and NMSU last season while firing their head coach halfway through the season. That’s been pretty par for the course for ULM, as in the program’s history, they’ve only made one bowl game, although they did win an FCS National Championship in 1987.

On offense, they recently lost their starting quarterback, sophomore Garrett Smith, to a leg injury for likely the rest of the season. That means that they’ll be turning to redshirt freshman Will Collins. By all accounts, they’re fairly similar players, so it’s unlikely that the offense will change much with a new guy under center. The Warhawks run a fairly balanced offense, rushing a little more often than they pass, but doing both with regularity. The main receiving target this year has been sophomore wide receiver Marcus Green, who leads the team in both receptions (23) and receiving touchdowns (3). The Warhawks don’t have ton of size at receiver, as R.J. Turner is the only receiver over 6’ to have more than 10 receptions, so it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to bully the Lobos the same way that Air Force did.

Out of the backfield, the Warhawks will mostly rely on two running backs, Ben Luckett, and Duke Carter, and whoever is playing quarterback. Luckett is the bigger back, at 5’11”, 214 lbs., but he and Carter have put up similar stats so far this season. Neither have jaw-dropping numbers, averaging fewer than 4 yards per carry, so I like to think that the Lobos will be able to keep them in check. Where the Warhawks do have some success running the ball is when they do a sweep with one of their receivers, usually Green.

On defense, ULM is led by linebackers David Griffith and Chase Day along with safety Tre’ Hunter. Day and Hunter are currently banged up, so Griffith has been the top performer, recording 48 tackles and 1.5 sacks on the season. Hunter is probably the best defensive player for the Warhawks, evidenced by his second-team selection in the Sun Belt Conference’s preseason awards, so if he’s hobbled with in injury, that could be bad news to an already-thin defense.

Some Relevant Stats

• Based on Football Outsider’s S&P+ ratings, ULM is the 119^th best team in the country, with the 91^st best offense and the 126^th best defense. By the same ratings, the Lobos are the 92^nd ranked team, with the 39^th best offense and the 125^th best defense. That looks to bode well for the Lobos, as their offense should be able to take advantage of the weak Warhawks run defense. The Warhawks are ranked 128^th in run defense, compared to 30^th in pass defense, and have given up an average of 268.2 yards per game on the ground.
• I think that the Lobo defense has been a bit of a disappointment this year, given that with their depth and experience, they were expected to take a step forward. I think that, in general, the defense is actually pretty similar to how it was last year, but one of the main differences is that they’ve had a really hard time forcing turnovers. Last year, they averaged 1.9 turnovers a game, which went a long way towards covering up some of the defense’s weaknesses. This year, those same weaknesses are present, but they average more than a turnover less per game (0.8 per game). There’s a decent chance that the reason for the drop in turnovers is just bad luck, so if that’s the case, hopefully things pick back up in this back half of the season.

Scattered Thoughts

• We’re at the part of the season where lots of players are banged up, one way or another, and for the Lobos, that mostly affects two positions: quarterback and the secondary. At quarterback, both Lamar Jordan and Austin Apodaca are recovering from injuries and although both are expected to be available in this game, it’s unclear how much their injuries will affect their play. In the secondary, the Lobos will be missing both I.B. Brown and Ryan Santos, who are recovering from an ankle injury and a concussion, respectively. That leaves the Lobos pretty thin back there, so hopefully the backups will be able to both be effective and stay healthy in this one.
• The big injury news this week was about Garrett Adcock, who has decided to retire after suffering another concussion. It’s a shame to see his career end this way, but I’m glad that he’s putting his health above football. He’s a guy who has taken advantage of his opportunities here at UNM, particularly in the classroom and the community, and he’s got a bright future ahead of him.
• Around the Mountain West, Boise State won a big game last night against BYU to keep them alive in their hopes of playing in one of the major bowl games. If they win out, they’ll have a good chance of that happening, particularly if they get some help from Houston. As for the rest of the conference, all of the other matchups are within-conference games, with the most important probably being the Wyoming-Nevada game. If Wyoming can pull out a win, I think that would answer any doubts about how serious of a contender they are this year.

Prediction

It seems pretty clear that the Lobos should win this game, and had we not see them lose games like this earlier this year, I don’t think there’d be any reason to expect them to not. They have a better defense and a much better offense, plus they’re playing at home. Because of that, I think that they’ll win comfortably, 42-21.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (3-3) vs UL-Monroe (2-4)

When: Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 7pm MT

Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

Watch: Root Sports

Listen: 770 KKOB/94.5 FM