After blasting UL-Monroe in their game last week, the Lobos head to Hawaii to take on the Rainbow Warriors. The Rainbow Warriors have seen a lot of improvement this year, particularly on the offensive end, which means that this game will likely be a total shootout. It should be a fun one to watch, so congrats to everyone who is actually in Hawaii, as they’re the only ones who will be able to see it.
A Little about Hawaii
Last year, in the middle of a fourth-straight rough season, the Rainbow Warriors fired Norm Chow, which left the program looking for a new coach. Clearly looking to bring the program back to the pre-Chow days, Hawaii hired Nevada’s offensive coordinator, Nick Rolovich, who was previously the Rainbow Warrior’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach from 2008-2011. He has pretty much immediately revived the team’s offense, going from one of the worst in the country to an above-average unit. They’ve already won more games this season than last year and are looking for three more wins in their last five games, which would put them back in the Hawaii Bowl for the first time since 2010. They’ll have a tough go of it, though, as after the Lobos, they face SDSU and Boise State.
On offense, the Rainbow Warriors feature a new quarterback, as sophomore Dru Brown supplanted senior Ikaika Woolsey as the starter four games ago. Brown has been more dynamic in just about every way, completing 62% of his passes, already throwing 1243 yards and 9 touchdowns, while rushing for 5.0 yards per carry with 2 touchdowns. His main targets have been Marcus Kemp, a 6’4” senior who has 42 catches on the season for 787 yards and 6 touchdowns, and John Ursua, a 5’10 freshman who 26 receptions for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns. In the backfield, Hawaii mostly relies on junior Diocemy Saint Juste, who has 614 yards on 103 carries, which is good for 6.0 yards per carry. Their short-yardage back is senior Steven Lakalana, who averages 4.9 yards per carry and has scored 9 touchdowns on the season already.
Hawaii’s defense is led by junior safety Trayvon Henderson, who is second on the team with 56 tackles, tied for the team lead in sacks with 2, and leads the team in passes defended with 5. The team’s leading tackler is Jahlani Tavai, a sophomore linebacker who has picked up 69 tackles, 2 sacks, an interception, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. Senior cornerback Jalen Rogers has been the team’s ball-hawk, leading both the team and the conference with 3 interceptions.
Some Relevant Stats
- Based on Football Outsider’s S&P+ ratings, Hawaii is the 91st best team in the country, with the 51st-ranked offense and the 115th-ranked defense. For comparison, the Lobos are now ranked 73rd (which I think is their highest rating in years…), with the 32nd– ranked offense and the 117th-ranked defense. Both offenses are explosive, although they go about it in different ways. While the Lobos are clearly run-heavy, Hawaii is pretty balanced with a strong running attack and a strong passing attack. The defenses rate awfully similarly, with the Lobos being slightly better at stopping both the run and the pass, but are more prone to giving up big plays. With two strong offenses and two weak defenses, this is likely to be a high-scoring affair, with whichever team is able to get a few stops probably coming out ahead at the end.
- The Lobos have won four games and lost three so far this season. What has been the difference? Well, a few things in particular stick out to me. First, in wins, their running attack goes from good to elite, averaging 430.8 yards in wins vs. 298.7 yards in losses on a nearly equal number of attempts. Second, the offense tends to commit more penalties in losses, with about 20 yards of extra penalties in losses compared to wins. Finally, the defense is able to get turnovers in wins, averaging 1.5 per win and 0.3 per loss.
Scattered Thoughts
- Hey cool, this game isn’t on TV or available to (legally) stream. It sounds like Oceanic Sports, who has the rights to the game, has refused to let a local network pick it up or even allow it to stream online, which seems a little odd to me. I won’t pretend to know anything about regional sports networks or how game rights work, but it seems to me like they could have made a little extra money by letting us watch the game. Of course, scheduling the game at 10pm MT might have meant that the number watching the game out here would be basically the same either way.
- Around the Mountain West, the big game this week is Boise State at Wyoming, which could have some interesting implications for the Lobos. If Boise State wins, they’ll pretty much have the Mountain Division locked up, barring a complete collapse down the stretch. If Wyoming wins, the door opens back up for the Lobos. My guess is that Boise takes it, but if not, it could get fun, assuming the Lobos keep winning games.
Prediction
This seems to be a fairly even matchup, with the Lobos maybe being a little better, but Hawaii having home-field advantage. I like the way the Lobos have played the past two games, and if they can keep it up, I think that they’ll win this one in a shootout. I’ll pick the Lobos to win 45-40.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (4-3) vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (4-4)
When: Saturday, October 29, 2016 at 10pm MT
Where: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI
Watch: Oceanic, which if you have it and you don’t live in Hawaii, you may want to rethink your cable package.
Listen: 770 KKOB/94.5 FM