Last week, on their trip to Hawaii, the Lobos managed to pick up their third straight win, move to just a single win away from bowl eligibility, and, perhaps most encouragingly, win a game with their defense. They’re full of momentum right now and they’ll look to keep that going against the Nevada Wolf Pack, who after losing four of their last five, are just trying to get their season back on track.
A Little about Nevada
Nevada, who are led by fourth-year head coach Brian Polian, are coming off a season in which they went 7-6, which included a second-place finish in the West division and an appearance in a bowl game. They’ve had a tougher time this season, only winning once in conference play so far and now needing to win three of their last four to make it to another bowl game this year. A significant reason for their struggles is that they’ve been pretty banged up this season, with 10 players out for the season already and a few more players who might miss the game against the Lobos. With that many injuries, the Wolf Pack have seen both their offense and defense take step back this year, which means that this isn’t the same team that beat the Lobos 35-17 in Reno last year.
Their biggest loss this year was behind center, as their starting quarterback, senior Tyler Stewart, injured his shoulder in their most recent game. His replacement was sophomore Ty Gangi, who managed 300 yards and a touchdown over the rest of the game. Gangi will start again against the Lobos and, given how little he’s played in his career, it’s hard to tell how this change will affect the Wolf Pack offense. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see some nerves out of him, as this will be his first career start and it’s on the road, so if he is a little rattled, the Lobos need to take advantage.
With Stewart out, the stars of the Wolf Pack offense have been running back James Butler and wide receiver Wyatt Demps. Butler, a junior, has been a workhorse this year, averaging more than 100 yards and 20 carries per game. He leads the team, by far, in rushing yards, is second in receiving yards, and leads the team in total touchdowns. Demps, also a junior, is a big receiver who leads the team in both receiving yards and touchdowns. It’s been a breakout season for him, as he has already caught more passes this year than he had in his first two years at Nevada. Another receiver to pay attention to is senior Hasaan Henderson, who is also a big receiver and has over 1,800 yards receiving in his career. It’s unclear if he’ll play in this game, though, as he’s been dealing with concussion symptoms.
On defense, the Wolf Pack are getting back their leading tackler, senior linebacker Alex Bertrando, who missed last game with a concussion. In his 7 games, Bertrando picked up 67 tackles, including 3 for a loss. He will likely be called on a lot to try to stop the Lobos running attack. Nevada’s best pass rusher is sophomore Malik Reed, who leads the team with 5 sacks and 9 tackles for a loss. On top of that, he’s also managed to force three fumbles this year. Their secondary hasn’t been great at intercepting the ball, as only one of the defensive backs has even a single interception, but safeties Asauni Rufus and Dameon Barber are second and fourth in tackles on the team, respectively. Of course, if they end up with a lot of tackles in this game, that’s probably a sign that the Lobos are effectively running the ball.
Some Relevant Stats
To look at Football Outsider’s stats, I’m doing something a little bit differently this week. In the following two radar plots, S&P+ ratings related to both offense and defense are shown for both teams. In these plots, close to the middle represents the worst team rating for each stat, while close to the outside represents the best team rating. In the first plot, we look at just the offensive ratings. In it, Offensive S&P+ is the overall offensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at running and passing the ball, respectively. Standard Downs are how well the team performs in either first downs, second downs with less than 8 yards to go, or third and fourth downs with less than 5 yards to go. Passing Downs are how well the team performs in all other downs. Success Rate is how good the team is at getting at least 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% of the yards needed on second down, and 100% of the yards needed on third and fourth down. Finally, IsoPPP+ is a measure of how explosive a team is, that is, how good a team is at getting big plays.
As we can see, the Lobos are significantly better in every category than Nevada, with the exception of passing, where neither team is particularly good. The biggest advantage the Lobos have is in running the ball, which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, as the Lobos have the 9th highest rating in the country right now, so they’ll be better than most.
In the next plot, we look at just the defensive ratings. In it, Defensive S&P+ is the overall defensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at stopping the rush and the pass, respectively. Standard Downs and Passing Downs can be thought of as how well the defense performs in the scenarios mentioned earlier in the description of the offensive stats, while Success Rate in this case is how good the defense is at preventing the offense at having a good Success Rate as described earlier. IsoPPP+ in this plot is a measure of how good a team is at preventing big plays.
In this case, the Lobos are better than Nevada in every category, with the biggest difference occurring in the run defense, where Nevada rates only slightly better than ULM, and in Success Rate, where Nevada is the worst in the country. These stats bode well for the Lobos, as on paper, it’s hard to see how Nevada is going to stop the Lobos’ potent rushing attack. Of course, they managed to do it last year, so nothing’s a given.
Scattered Thoughts
- It’s unfortunate that this game was scheduled for as late as it is, as this could be a special night for the Lobos and a small crowd would be a bummer. Not only could they clinch bowl-eligibility, they could go on their first four-game winning streak since 2004, where they actually won five in a row to close out their regular season. This late time is entirely due to obligations with ESPN, so it’s probably a net positive, but I hope that plenty of people make it out so if and when the Lobos win, there will be lots of Lobo fans there celebrating with them.
- Around the Mountain West, the balance of power shifted a little last week when Wyoming beat Boise State with a game-ending safety. That probably cost the conference a ton of money, as Boise looked to be on track to play in one of the big bowl games, but that might be out of the question now. However, for the Lobos, that cracks the window open a little, as there’s now a chance that their last game of the season, at home against Wyoming, will be for the division championship. All they can control right now is themselves, though, so they need to just keep winning.
This week, the game with probably the biggest implications is Hawaii at SDSU, as an Aztec win would pretty much solidify their spot in the MW Championship game while a Rainbow Warrior win would make the race a little more interesting. It will also be interesting to see how Boise State does against San Jose State. The Broncos should win that game, but it might be hard for them to bounce back after such a disappointing loss last week.
Prediction
The Lobos look like they’re the better team on both sides of the ball, they’re playing well, and they’re playing at home. Needless to say, I like their chances in this one. So, I’ll pick the Lobos to come away with a 42-27 victory.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (5-3) vs Nevada Wolf Pack (3-5)
When: Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 8:15pm MT
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: ESPNU
Listen: 770 KKOB/94.5 FM