In a game that started on Saturday and ended on Sunday, the Lobos clinched bowl-eligibility last week with their win against Nevada. I’m not sure if there were more people in the stands or on the field when the game actually ended, but it was an exciting game, nonetheless. This week, the Lobos look to keep their hot streak going when they travel to Utah State in search of their fifth-straight game.
A Little about Utah State
The Utah State Aggies, who are led by 4th-year head coach, Matt Wells, are in an unfamiliar spot right now. Sitting at 3-6 on the season, they’re in danger of ending the season with a losing record for the first time since 2010, which was also the last season where they didn’t make a bowl game. Looking at their schedule, none of their losses look particularly bad – at CSU is probably the worst one, and that’s not particularly surprising – but none of their wins are that impressive either. I think that they’re better than their record would indicate, but it’s been kind of a weird year for them.
On offense, they’ve tended to throw more than run, but that really due to the fact that they’ve been behind in most of their games. In their wins, they’ve rushed about twice as often as they’ve passed, but in their losses they pass about 33% more often than they rush. So, if they get to play the game they want to, expect them to run a fairly balanced offense, with slightly more running than passing.
Their quarterback is junior Kent Myers, who has had a bit of an up and down season so far. He’s has a decent completion percentage and has thrown for 1901 yards and 9 touchdowns, but he’s also thrown 5 interceptions. He also tends to look to run the ball fairly regularly, averaging about 10 attempts per game. However, he got banged up in the Aggies’ last game, so it’s unclear if he’ll play or not. If he’s out, Damion Hobbs will get the start instead.
The top skill players on offense have been junior RB Tonny Lindsey, freshman WR Rayshad Lewis, sophomore WR Ron’Quavion Tarver, and senior TE Wyatt Houston. Lindsey has been the primary back for the Aggies, especially with senior RB Devante Mays struggling with injuries this year. Lindsey’s not a particularly big back, but he’s pretty fast. Lewis and Tarver both lead the team in receptions, with 36, and are also tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns, with 2. Lewis is a smaller receiver, at 5’10, while Tarver is a bigger receiver, at 6’3”, who is also a deep threat. Houston has also been productive in their offense, already catching 31 passes. In each of his three games against the Lobos, he’s caught at least one pass for more than 20 yards, so don’t be surprised if they look for that again.
On defense, their best player this season might be junior safety Dallin Leavitt, who transferred in from BYU. He’s second on the team in tackles and has two interceptions, which ties for the team lead. Senior LB Brock Carmen has also been solid, leading the team in sacks with 3 and earning a conference defensive player of the week away. Senior LB Anthony Williams leads the team in tackles, which is a bit of a surprise, as he sat out last season and wasn’t much of a factor the year before.
Some Relevant Stats
In the following two radar plots, Football Outsider’s S&P+ ratings related to both offense and defense are shown for both teams. In these plots, close to the middle represents the worst team rating for each stat, while close to the outside represents the best team rating. In the first plot, we look at just the offensive ratings. In it, Offensive S&P+ is the overall offensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at running and passing the ball, respectively. Standard Downs are how well the team performs in either first downs, second downs with less than 8 yards to go, or third and fourth downs with less than 5 yards to go. Passing Downs are how well the team performs in all other downs. Success Rate is how good the team is at getting at least 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% of the yards needed on second down, and 100% of the yards needed on third and fourth down. Finally, IsoPPP+ is a measure of how explosive a team is, that is, how good a team is at getting big plays.
As we can see, the two offenses actually rate out pretty similarly, although the Lobos are slightly better in most categories. They both have solid rushing attacks and they struggle passing the ball. The biggest difference, in my mind, is in the explosiveness of the offenses. In IsoPPP+, the Lobos are the 47th best team, while the Aggies are 85th.
In the next plot, we look at just the defensive ratings. In it, Defensive S&P+ is the overall defensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at stopping the rush and the pass, respectively. Standard Downs and Passing Downs can be thought of as how well the defense performs in the scenarios mentioned earlier in the description of the offensive stats, while Success Rate in this case is how good the defense is at preventing the offense at having a good Success Rate as described earlier. IsoPPP+ in this plot is a measure of how good a team is at preventing big plays.
On defense, the Aggies rate out as better in each of these metrics, except for rushing defense, where the Lobos are slightly better. The Aggie’s main strength is their passing defense, which is the 17th best in the country (on a side note, the ratings for the top few passing defenses are so much higher than everyone else’s, they can make the 17th-ranked passing defense look below average.) The Aggies also do a decent job preventing explosive plays, ranking 35th in the country in IsoPPP+.
Scattered Thoughts
- Last week’s game was awesome for a lot of reasons, but the most important thing that came out of it was the 6th win of the season. The Lobos are now bowl-eligible for the second straight year, which they hadn’t done since the 2006 and 2007 season. To me, with that goal already reached, that means it’s time to start getting greedy. And by that, I mean literally. This week’s and next week’s games are both on ESPN2, which will net UNM a cool $1,000,000 between them. If they win both of those, it’s almost a certainty that their final game, at home against Wyoming, will be picked up for ESPN2 as well. Yeah, it’s a bummer that the game will be at 8:15, but I’m certainly not one to turn down half a million, so I’m not going to complain.
Also, with three games left on the schedule, the Lobos could end up anywhere from 6-6 to 9-3, with any of those records feeling possible. Would a 9-3 record on the back of a 7-game winning streak re-energize the Lobo fan base? I’d hope so. - As the world’s most prominent Lobo helmet blogger, it’s generally been a good year for the Lobo uniforms. It’s been especially cool that they’ve worn a different helmet/uniform combination in every game this season. However, I’ve found it interesting that they’ve completely abandoned the silver helmets so far this season, mostly in favor of the white ones. I’m a little torn on that, as the white helmets and the anthracite helmets both look pretty sharp, but that has left a pretty noticeable lack of silver from the boys in cherry and silver. The helmets have definitely been a win overall, though.
- Around the Mountain West, things went pretty much according to plan in the games last week. There weren’t really any upsets, so the most surprising thing was probably Wyoming blowing Utah State out. The biggest thing that happened was San Diego State clinching a spot in the conference championship, which is both a testament to how good they are, and how weak their division is as a whole. These things tend to be cyclical, but the balance of power is clearly in the Mountain Division right now.
Probably the biggest thing to watch out for this week is the number of teams that could be eliminated from bowl eligibility this week. Hawaii, UNLV, Utah State, and Nevada could all pick up their 7th loss of the season this week, and looking at the schedule, it feels like there’s a decent chance that happens. If it did happen, that would only leave 6 teams in the conference that could potentially become bowl-eligible (5 are already), which would be down from the 8 teams that went bowling last year. Of course, last year SJSU made a bowl game with a 5-7 record because there are too many bowl games, so who knows?
Prediction
Despite Utah State’s record, they’re not a bad team, so the Lobos will have their work cut out for them. In fact, by some metrics, the teams are of pretty similar quality. However, the Lobos have momentum right now and the Aggies don’t, which makes me think that the Lobos have the edge in this game. I’ll pick the Lobos to come away with a 28-24 victory.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (6-3) vs Utah State Aggies (3-6)
When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 8:15pm MT
Where: Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
Watch: ESPN2
Listen: 770 KKOB/94.5 FM