The road is set for the Lobos (12-6-2) to make a run to the College Cup in Houston. Coming off the Conference USA Tournament Championship, the Lobos are clicking as a team at the perfect time and could be ready for an exciting NCAA Tournament. After a couple of bad weeks in the middle of the season, the Lobos have gone 5-0-2 in their last seven matches including 2-0-1 against NCAA Tournament teams. The Lobos have the talent to play with any team in the country, which gives them the possibility of making a run to the College Cup.
Seeding:
It appeared that the Lobos had a chance for a national seed to get a first-round bye, and I do think that if the Lobos had won in regulation or overtime against Kentucky, the Lobos would have gotten the #16 seed. But since the game was officially a draw with the Lobos advancing on penalties, they didn’t get credit for the win. Coach Fishbein said that he thought the Lobos were one win away from getting a national seed, and I’m inclined to agree. At least the Lobos were given a first-round home match, but will take on a very good Portland team that was also in the national seed conversation.
Road to Houston:
The Lobos must win four matches to make the College Cup, with three of those matches having to come on the road (unless there are tons of upsets in the Lobos region, which feels unlikely). We will look closely at the five teams in the Lobos pod and will look at the other six teams in the region to see who is likely to make it to the elite eight and potentially face the Lobos.
New Mexico (12-6-2):
| New Mexico | Opponents | |
| Goals | 33 (7 1st Half, 26 2nd Half) | 17 (5 1st Half, 12 2nd Half) |
| Goals Per Match | 1.65 | .85 |
| Shots on Goal | 134-279 (.480) | 80-182 (.440) |
| Shots Per Match | 13.9 | 9.1 |
| Assists | 23 | 9 |
| Corner Kicks | 125 | 89 |
- Niko Hansen has led the Lobos attack this season with 13 goals and 2 assists. His right-hand man has been Chris Wehan, who has 8 goals and 3 assists.
- Sam Gleadle leads the Lobos with 5 assists on the season to go with his 1 goal.
- Jason Beaulieu has been a steady force in the goal for the Lobos this season, with a .77 goals against average and 7 complete-game shutouts and another team shutout where he went the first 80 minutes.
Portland (12-5-1): First up for the Lobos is a home match against a good Portland Pilots squad that is ranked 20th by Top Drawer Soccer, which is two spots lower than the Lobos. This shows the selection committee did no favors for either side, since you could easily make the case Portland should be hosting a first-round match and/or the Lobos should have a first-round bye.
| Portland | Opponents | |
| Goals | 36 (10 2nd Half,26 2nd Half) | 18 (5 1st Half,13 2nd Half) |
| Goals Per Match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Shots on Goal | 85-205 (.415) | 76-186 (.409) |
| Shots Per Match | 11.4 | 10.3 |
| Assists | 24 | 15 |
| Corner Kicks | 103 | 82 |
- The Pilots are led by Benji Michel, who has scored 10 goals and has 4 assists on the year. The Lobos defense needs to make sure they limit Michel impact on the match.
- The Pilots goalie is Paul Christensen, who has a .98 Goals Against Average with 6 shutouts.
- The Pilots seem to either score a bunch of goal or are completely shut down, so if the Lobos can be the team that controls the ball, they should be able to win this match 2-0.
#11 Washington (13-6-0): The Huskies are a team coached by former Lobo assistant Jamie Clark and Lobo Soccer Legend Jeff Rowland. The Lobos faced Washington in the preseason in Albuquerque, with the Lobos winning the match 1-0. Washington has lost their last two matches in a tough Pac12 after winning six straight. Washington will host the winner of the UNM/Portland match on Sunday, which could provide some nice symmetry for the Lobos, as the last time the Lobos were in the NCAA Tournament, the Lobos beat Washington on the road to advance to the College Cup in 2013. The seniors on this year’s Lobo team were freshmen on that team.
| Washington | Opponents | |
| Goals | 30 (15 1st Half, 15 2nd Half) | 17 (8 1st Half, 9 2nd Half) |
| Goals Per Match | 1.58 | .89 |
| Shots on Goal | N/A | N/A |
| Shots Per Match | 14.9 | 10.9 |
| Assists | 22 | 14 |
| Corner Kicks | 114 | 68 |
- Washington has a very balanced scoring attack, with eight players with 2 to 4 goals on the season.
- Washington’s goalie is Auden Schilder, who has a .81 Goals Against Average with 5 shutouts.
- Lobos and Washington match up well, which isn’t surprising considering Clark coached under Fishbein, so there will always be some similarities between the two sides. This is a matchup that should be played every year, but I doubt it will because the travel is too much for only one match.
SDSU (9-4-5): The Aztecs will host UNLV for the right to face national seed Denver in the second round. SDSU is a very defensive-minded team that is very physical and they are more than fine to play a 0-0 game and hope for a goal in overtime.
| SDSU | Opponents | |
| Goals | 18 (5 1st Half, 13 2nd Half) | 12 (4 1st Half, 8 2nd Half) |
| Goals Per Match | 1.0 | .67 |
| Shots on Goal | 79-198 (.399) | 84-215 (.391) |
| Shots Per Match | 14.9 | 11.9 |
| Assists | 14 | 14 |
| Corner Kicks | 69 | 83 |
- The Aztecs are led by Travis Nicklaw, who has scored 5 goals this season.
- The Aztecs have a great goalie in Adam Allmaras, who has a .62 Goal Against Average with 11 shutouts.
- If the Lobos end up facing SDSU, which is unlikely given that both teams would have to win two matches for it to happen, the Lobos would have the advantage offensively and the two sides are very even in the defensive third.
UNLV (10-11-1): The Rebels will head to San Diego to take on SDSU, as they are the surprise winner of the WAC Tournament, beating the two best teams in the semifinals and the championship match. The Rebels are very much a .500 team and it would surprise me if they get past the second round, but they could be able to steal the match at SDSU with their solid attacking play.
| UNLV | Opponents | |
| Goals | 38 (20 1st Half, 18 2nd Half) | 43 (18 1st Half, 25 2nd Half) |
| Goals Per Match | 1.73 | 1.95 |
| Shots on Goal | 120-215 (.478) | 141-288 (.490) |
| Shots Per Match | 11.4 | 13.1 |
| Assists | 38 | 35 |
| Corner Kicks | 92 | 107 |
- The Rebels are a team that makes the most of their opportunities in the final third, but struggle to defend, giving up almost two goals a match.
- The Rebels attack is led by Danny Musovski, who has scored 12 goals and assisted on 6 goals.
- The Rebels have played 3 different goalies this year, all with sub-par results, but are led in goal by Enrique Adame, who has a 1.49 Goals Against Average.
- This would be a matchup that the Lobos should dominate if it happened, as the Lobos limit opponent’s attacks and Niko Hansen and Chris Wehan would have a field day against their defense.
Denver (17-0-3): The Lobos played Denver earlier this season on the road, losing 2-1 in double overtime. It was a match destined for a draw before Denver scored with just a few seconds left on a breakdown. Denver is a very good team and have one of the best defenses in college soccer, with a couple of All-Americans in their backline. This would be a matchup were the Lobos would need to find a goal and hope they can shut down the Denver attack.
| Denver | Opponents | |
| Goals | 33 (15 1st Half, 18 2nd Half) | 10 (4 1st Half, 6 2nd Half) |
| Goals Per Match | 1.65 | .5 |
| Shots on Goal | 109-266 (.410) | 40-148 (.270) |
| Shots Per Match | 13.3 | 7.4 |
| Assists | 42 | 6 |
| Corner Kicks | 130 | 72 |
- Denver boast a very balanced attack, with six players with 3 or more goals and nine players with 2 or more assists.
- Denver’s goalie is Nick Gardner, who has a .50 Goals Against Average with 11 shutouts.
- Denver doesn’t allow many chances for their opponents and when they do, they aren’t great chances.
Other Side of the Region:
#3 seed Clemson will have home field to the College Cup if they make it that far, so it is easy to say the road to Houston goes through Clemson. Mercer (13-6-1) will head to South Carolina (10-7-1) for the right to face Clemson. The other national seed on that side is #14 seed Albany (12-5-2), with Fordham (10-6-4) traveling to Boston College (8-8-3) to decide who faces Albany in the second round.
Tournament Odds:
Odds will change as the tournament goes along, so we will break it down to the first two possible matches for the Lobos and give the odds for each of those teams to make the Sweet Sixteen. Washington is the favorites to make it out of the pod, since they will have the home field advantage in the round of 32 game, and they don’t have to win two matches to reach the Sweet Sixteen. So, I place the odds of each team reaching the Sweet Sixteen at:
Washington: 53%
New Mexico 27%
Portland 20%
Tournament Expectations:
The Lobos have the talent to make the College Cup, but I think the expectation for the Lobo fans should be a first-round win against Portland with a decent possibility of winning the match at Washington. My expectation at the beginning of the year was that the Lobos would make the Sweet Sixteen, and I will keep my expectations there. All in all, everything from this point on is icing on the cake for a great season that has had a lot of great memories.
What to Watch:
- NCAA Tournament play is a different animal than the regular season, where every second of every match matters and one miscue can end you season. You must play loose and play like you would any match so that way you don’t tense up in the key moments of the match.
- Niko Hansen and Chris Wehan need to be the difference makers for the Lobos in the tournament. If they play to their potential in each match, the likelihood of the Lobos making the College Cup go up a fair amount.
- The backline of Tom Smart, Nick Rochowski, Matt Constant, and Aaron Herrera need to be on the same page in this tournament and keep spaces limited between them and the midfield. They will have great help from Chris Gurule, who was named Defensive MVP in the conference tournament, and Patrick Khouri in the middle of the field. Jason Beaulieu, who has been great in goal for the Lobos, will provide the last defense and should be able to continue his great play in the tournament.
- Who will be the other attacking players that step up to help Wehan and Hansen in the attacking third? Sam Gleadle was great in the conference tournament and will provide great energy and play making to set up Wehan and Hansen, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gleadle scored a goal or two in the tournament. Other players that could fit in this equation are Devin Boyce, Luke Lawrence, Josh Goss, Matt Dorsey and Simon Spangenberg.
Portland Match Prediction:
It will be a cold night in Albuquerque on Thursday, but this match should bring a lot of energy and some fireworks between these two good sides. This should be a great match between two evenly-matched teams, both sides liking to feel out the first half before opening things up in the second half. Because of that, if one side can get an early goal, they will have a pretty good advantage going into the second half. I give the Lobos a 39% chance of winning the match, and a 73% chance of getting a result before a shootout. I have the Lobos winning this one 2-0 with goals from Wehan and Gleadle. Survive and advance is the name of the game, and the Lobos will need the Lobo fans there to help them get to the next round.
Game Info:
Who: New Mexico Lobos (12-6-2) vs. Portland Pilots (12-5-1)
When: Thursday, November 17th, 7 PM MT
Where: UNM Soccer Complex, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Steam: MW Network
Tickets: Pride Pass will not get you in. $10 for Adults, $5 for UNM Students and children ages 3-18.