After a successful first weekend, the Lobos get back to action on Friday, when they’ll host in-state rival New Mexico State. This rivalry always seems to produce tense games, and this one should be no different. Hopefully that makes for a very, very loud Pit.
A Little About NMSU
What they’ve done so far:
The Aggies have played 3 games so far this season, winning two of them while losing one. Their first win was when they blew out NAIA Arizona Christian 100-52, which wasn’t used as an exhibition, for whatever reason. They got their first real challenge when they went up to Colorado State to face the Rams. In a close, hard-fought game, the Aggies almost pulled out the win on the road, but ultimately fell 64-61. They bounced back quickly though, beating Samford at home, 58-48, in a game that could either be described as a defensive battle or an offensive slog, depending on whether you’re a glass-half-full or a glass-half-empty sort of person. The Aggies would take the optimistic viewpoint, of course, as their defense really has been their calling card in this early season. If they can keep that up and get their offense to come around, they could end up being a dangerous team.
Coach:
With Marvin Menzies taking the job at UNLV, the Aggies did exactly what the Lobos did when their head coach fled for greener pastures: they hired the associate head coach. So, Paul Weir is in his first year as a head coach, but this is his 10th season with the Aggies overall. It sounds like he had a lot of responsibilities under Menzies, so some aspects of the transition should be pretty smooth, although as we’ve seen, being the head coach is just tougher in general. He does have the luxury of returning 4 starters from last season’s team, which is why they’re again the prohibitive favorites in the WAC. Weir also has a history with Coach Neal, as Noodles helped Weir get his first college basketball job at Iowa.
Probable Starters:
#4 Ian Baker (6’0” Guard, Senior): With Pascal Siakam now playing for the Toronto Raptors, this is Baker’s team. He’s gotten off to a little bit of a slow start, but he’s expected to be a high-volume scorer for the Aggies, taking a lot of shots from all over the court. He’s only shooting 11.8% from deep this season, but he’s shot 37.8% for his career, so he’s not someone you want to leave open.
#13 Sidy N’Dir (6’2” Guard, Sophomore): N’Dir is a guard from France who has gone from a seldom-used bench player last season to a starter playing most of the game this year. On offense, he will look to score from behind the arc, but is willing to take it to the rim as well. On defense, he has more blocks than steals this season, which is unusual for someone his size, but he did it last year too.
#35 Jalyn Pennie (6’5” Guard, Junior): Pennie started most of the games for the Aggies last season, where he was maybe their fourth option on offense, but he still managed to score fairly well, thanks to his three-point shooting. He’s had a hard time staying on the court this season, thanks to foul trouble, but based on his career, you’d expect that problem to go away at some point. He also shrunk two inches this season, according to the Aggies’ website, so maybe that should be cause for concern.
#23 Marlon Jones (6’9” Forward, Junior): Jones is a junior college transfer who has already worked his way into the starting lineup. He’s primarily a post presence, scoring all of his points so far from either inside the arc or from the charity strip. He has also had a hard time staying out of foul trouble so far, which I’m sure Tim Williams will take advantage of.
#11 Jonathon Wilkins (6’10” Forward, Junior): A left-handed post from France, Wilkins attended the same high school as Sam Logwood and Obij Aget, which also means that he was coached by Alan Huss. He started most of the games last season for the Aggies and seems to have solidified his spot in the starting lineup this year. He’s mostly asked to be a rim-protector, but he will chip in a few points occasionally.
Some Relevant Stats
It’s still super early, so the stats that we do have are going to see a lot of changes as the season goes on. There are some fun numbers that have popped up for the two teams, thanks to the small sample sizes:
- The Lobos have yet to have a shot blocked this season, which puts them at tied for first in that category with 9 other teams.
- NMSU’s opponents are only shooting 14.3% from three-point range this year, with Samford having the best performance by shooting 21.4% (3-15). The Aggies aren’t faring much better themselves, shooting 19.6% on the year from deep.
- The Lobos are shooting 64.5% from two-point range, which is good for 8th in the country. That helps offset their 25.0% three point shooting, which is 289th
One thing that might be worth actually paying attention to is the pace of the game. The Lobos like to play fairly fast, with an above-average adjusted tempo driven by their relatively short average possession length. The Aggies, on the other hand, are well below average in adjusted tempo (ranked 317th). That seems to mostly be due to the above-average possession length of their opponents, as the Aggies’ possession length is roughly average.
Scattered Thoughts
- So far this season, we’ve seen Coach Neal run with a 10-man rotation, for the most part, with all three freshmen getting some playing time. That’s intentional, according to Noodles, as he wants to let them get some experience early in the season so they can potentially be counted on later in the year. Dane’s coming back from an illness soon, so it will be interesting to see how the rotation ends up shaking out. The main problem is that there are plenty of guys who probably deserve some playing time, but there’s just not much time to go around. Consider this: with Elijah, Tim, and now Sam looking like they’ll be playing close to 30 minutes a game, that only leaves 110 minutes to go around. If you take out 40 minutes for Jordan and Jalen at the point and 40 minutes for O and Connor to share in the post, there’s a whopping 30 minutes to go around for X, Dane, Anthony, Damien, Aher, and Joe. People are going to get left out, is my point.
- The attendance hasn’t been great the first couple of games, and it’s hard to tell if it’s because of a lack of excitement about the team, if it’s because of the opponents, or some combination of factors. I will admit, it was hard to get up for Idaho State or Houston Baptist, but the crowd should be better against the Aggies. If it isn’t, the athletic department will likely be freaking out a little bit.
Prediction
The Aggies scare me a little bit, as I think they’re still solid defensively and their offense feels like it could break out of its early-season funk any game now. However, I still like the Lobos overall, mainly because this feels like another game that Tim Williams can take over. I’ll pick the Lobos to win in a tight game, 73-69.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (2-0) vs. NMSU Aggies (2-1)
When: Friday, November 18, 2016 at 7pm MT
Where: Albuquerque, NM
Watch: ESPN3
Listen: 770 KKOB