Five in a row, a 7-3 record overall, and still in the hunt for a division title. This season has been wild and frustrating and thrilling all at the same time and it almost feels like there’s not much more we can ask out of the Lobos. But here we are, with only two games left in the season, and I’m personally feeling greedy and want to see just how much success this team can have. They have some tough games coming up, this week at Colorado State and next week hosting Wyoming, but they’re both winnable. Let’s get this one first and make it six in a row.

A Little about Colorado State

What they’ve done so far

As you might expect from a 5-5 team, the Rams have had an up-and-down season. They don’t really have any bad losses, but they don’t have any great wins either. In fact, based on what we’ve seen this year, the Rams have basically won the games that they should have been expected to win, and lost the games that they were expected to lose. That leaves them one win shy of bowl eligibility right now and you know that they have to view this game as being their best chance to get that sixth win, as next week they travel to San Diego State.

Coach

Mike Bobo is in his second year with the Rams, having taken over for Jim McElwain last season after McElwain jumped ship to Florida. He helped guide the Rams to a 7-5 record last season and their third consecutive bowl game, where they lost in the Arizona Bowl to Nevada. He was the offensive coordinator at Georgia before he got the job in Ft. Collins, so the Rams are hoping that he can bring in some SEC-level players soon.

Offense

The Rams have a fairly balanced offense, getting about half of their yards in the air and half on the ground. Behind center recently has been junior QB Nick Stevens. Stevens began the season as the starter, but had a rough game against Colorado in the Ram’s first game and lost his starting spot to true freshman Collin Hill. After Hill tore his ACL, Stevens got his spot back and has been pretty good since, throwing 8 touchdowns and only one interception since that first game. He’s been getting some good protection this year, as the offensive line hasn’t allowed a sack in three games, and have only allowed 1.2 per game this season.

CSU sort of does a running back by committee, with Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews getting the lion’s share of the carries, but Marvin Kinsey getting plenty of touches too. They’ve all been similarly effective, with Matthews picking up the most touchdowns and Dawkins being the biggest threat to catch it out of the backfield.

Junior WR Michael Gallup has been the primary receiver for the Rams, with 59 catches on the season, while the next highest total on the team is only 20. He’s a JC transfer in his first year with CSU, so with his 915 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, it’s safe to say that he’s adjusted well. Olabisi Johnson will be targeted a few times as well, and he’s been a threat to break a big play. He’s averaging 17.0 yards per reception with 2 touchdowns on the year.

Defense

The Rams’ star on defense has been senior LB Kevin Davis, who leads the team in tackles (89), tackles for a loss (9), sacks (3), and forced fumbles (4). He’s also picked off a pass for good measure. Sophomore safety Braylin Scott has been the team’s ball hawk, picking off three passes so far this season. Their defense as a whole does a good job getting into the back field, averaging 6.7 tackles for a loss per game and 2.4 sacks per game.

Special Teams

Wyatt Bryan has been pretty solid as a kicker for the Rams, making 11 of his 14 attempts, including a 46-yarder and a 53-yarder. He also tends to get touchbacks on kickoffs, so there’s a decent chance we won’t see either team get to return one. If we do see them try to return one, it will likely either be Dawkins or Detrich Clark, neither of whom have broken one out for a touchdown. Their punter is Hayden Hunt, who has been really good, with a 44.2 yards per punt average and half of his punts ending up inside the 20.

Some Relevant Stats

In the following two radar plots, Football Outsider’s S&P+ ratings related to both offense and defense are shown for both teams. In these plots, close to the middle represents the worst team rating for each stat, while close to the outside represents the best team rating. In the first plot, we look at just the offensive ratings. In it, Offensive S&P+ is the overall offensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at running and passing the ball, respectively. Standard Downs are how well the team performs in either first downs, second downs with less than 8 yards to go, or third and fourth downs with less than 5 yards to go. Passing Downs are how well the team performs in all other downs. Success Rate is how good the team is at getting at least 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% of the yards needed on second down, and 100% of the yards needed on third and fourth down. Finally, IsoPPP+ is a measure of how explosive a team is, that is, how good a team is at getting big plays.

Both offenses rate out pretty similarly overall, but they go about it in different ways. Colorado State has a more well-rounded offense, with much better passing than the Lobos, although the Lobos are slightly better on the ground. The Rams are also most dangerous in downs where they aren’t expected to pass, so if the Lobos can force a third and long, they have to like their chances of forcing a kick. Both teams are also ranked in the top 50 in explosiveness, so expect to see big plays by both teams.

In the next plot, we look at just the defensive ratings. In it, Defensive S&P+ is the overall defensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at stopping the rush and the pass, respectively. Standard Downs and Passing Downs can be thought of as how well the defense performs in the scenarios mentioned earlier in the description of the offensive stats, while Success Rate in this case is how good the defense is at preventing the offense at having a good Success Rate as described earlier. IsoPPP+ in this plot is a measure of how good a team is at preventing big plays.

On defense, the Rams generally rate out as being the better team, although they aren’t world-beaters by any measure. It’s great to see the Lobos run defense continue to improve, to the point where they’re actually in the upper half of the FBS in that category. Their pass defense is still pretty vulnerable, so expect to see CSU look to take advantage of that. The Rams are kind of the opposite, with a good pass defense and a bad rushing defense. Given the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, there’s a decent chance that this game turns into an absolute shootout.

Scattered Thoughts

• Austin Apodaca will reportedly be getting the start in this one, as he ran the offense well against Utah State to engineer a comeback victory, and Lamar Jordan has been plagued with a few mistakes the past few game. While Apodaca typically opens up the offense with the threat of the pass, CSU has a much better passing defense than rushing defense, so I’m guessing that even with Apodaca behind center, there aren’t going to be a ton of passes. His decision making has been pretty good in the run game this season, and I think that Davie trusts him right now, so I think that he’ll do just fine.
• Okay, so with Boise State winning last night, the scenarios for the Lobos making the conference championship are pretty easy at this point. If Boise beats Air Force next week, the Lobos can’t make it, as they could only tie with Boise, at best, and Boise holds the tiebreaker against them. If Air Force beats Boise, though, then things open up a bit:
  • If UNM loses to CSU but beats Wyoming, then the Boise will make the championship, as depending on how Wyoming does this week against SDSU, there will either be a three-way tie for first, which Boise would hold the tiebreaker, as it would be based on CFP ranking, or a tie between UNM and Boise, which Boise would hold the tiebreaker, as they won the head-to-head matchup.
  • If UNM beats CSU and loses to Wyoming, then either we end up in the same three-way tie as before, or Wyoming would win the division outright, depending on if they beat SDSU or not.
  • If UNM wins out, then they would win the division outright.

  Basically, the Lobos need some help if they’re going to make the conference championship, but it’s not ridiculous to think that they could make it. They just need to take care of their own business and hope that things sort themselves out.

Prediction

Colorado State is a pretty solid team, playing at home, on senior night, in the last game in their stadium, and needing a win to clinch bowl eligibility. Because of all that, I feel like this is going to end up being a tough one for the Lobos. If they can get a few stops and limit their mistakes, they’ll be able to come out with their sixth straight win, and I certainly hope they do. However, I think that CSU will probably win this game, something like 45-38.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (7-3) vs Colorado State Rams (5-5)

When: Saturday, November 19, 2016 at 8:15pm MT

Where: Hughes Stadium, Ft. Collins, CO

Watch: ESPN2

Listen: 770 KKOB/94.5 FM