The Lobos saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week up at Colorado State, which also ended any chance that they had of making the conference championship game. However, thanks to a Boise State loss to Air Force yesterday, the Lobos can still claim a share of the division title tonight against Wyoming. With it being senior night and with a title on the line, it could be an emotional night at University Stadium.

A Little about Wyoming

What they’ve done so far

Just a season after going 2-10, Wyoming has completely turned things around. They now sit at 8-3 on the year with wins against nationally-ranked Boise State and San Diego State. Thanks to Boise’s loss to Air Force yesterday, Wyoming now has a share of the division title locked up and has secured a spot in the conference championship against SDSU. Their only slip-up in conference play was on the road against UNLV, where the Cowboys lost a triple overtime game 69-66. All in all, it’s been a great year for them.

Coach

Craig Bohl is now in his third season in charge at Wyoming, who backed up a truckload of money to pry him away from the three-peat FCS National Champions, the NDSU Bison. That investment is starting to look like it’s paying off, as the Cowboys now look like one of the top teams in the conference. It will be interesting to see if Wyoming will be able to hang on to Coach Bohl after this season, but if they do, Wyoming might be good for a while.

Offense

The Cowboys have a fairly balanced offense, getting about half of their yards on the ground and half in the air. They do tend to run it a lot more than they throw it, but they’re not shy about airing it out. Their quarterback is sophomore Josh Allen, who has been effective in his first season as a starter. He’s thrown for 2,500 yards on the year with 23 touchdowns. He’s also a threat to run, averaging about 10 carries a game for 4.3 yards per carry. He has thrown 11 interceptions on the year, so the Lobos might have some chances to create some turnovers.

Wyoming gives the bulk of the carries to junior RB Brian Hill, and for good reason. He averages 5.5 yards per carry, has picked up 1,548 yards, and has scored 18 rushing touchdowns on the season. He’s got good size, at 6’1”, 219 lbs., so the Lobos can’t afford to make poor tackling attempts, otherwise he’s going to have a huge game.

Senior WR Tanner Gentry has been the top receiver for the Cowboys, catching 57 passes for 1,020 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. The Cowboys have a lot of size at receiver, with the 6’2” Gentry being joined by 6’6” Jake Maulhardt, 6’2” James Price, and 6’2” CJ Johnson.

Defense

The Cowboy defense is led by a pair of sophomore safeties, Andrew Wingard and Marcus Epps. Wingard leads the conference in tackles, with 110 on the year, and has picked off a pass, forced a fumble, and recorded two sacks. Epps is tied for the team lead in interceptions with 3, has forced two fumbles, and has recorded 92 tackles this year. Sophomore defensive end leads the team in sacks, with 5.5 on the season.

Special Teams

DJ May is the Cowboys’ primary kickoff returner, with an average return of 27.9 yards. He’s occasionally joined by Austin Conway, who also serves as the primary punt returner, averaging 8.0 yards per punt return and a touchdown. Freshman kicker Cooper Rothe has been a little inconsistent, making 12 of his 18 attempts, but has made a 46-yarder already this year. Senior punter Ethan Wood has been consistent, if nothing else, over his career, with an average punt sitting between 41.2 and 42.0 each of his four seasons.

Some Relevant Stats

In the following two radar plots, Football Outsider’s S&P+ ratings related to both offense and defense are shown for both teams. In these plots, close to the middle represents the worst team rating for each stat, while close to the outside represents the best team rating. In the first plot, we look at just the offensive ratings. In it, Offensive S&P+ is the overall offensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at running and passing the ball, respectively. Standard Downs are how well the team performs in either first downs, second downs with less than 8 yards to go, or third and fourth downs with less than 5 yards to go. Passing Downs are how well the team performs in all other downs. Success Rate is how good the team is at getting at least 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% of the yards needed on second down, and 100% of the yards needed on third and fourth down. Finally, IsoPPP+ is a measure of how explosive a team is, that is, how good a team is at getting big plays.

Both offenses are pretty good, but Wyoming’s rates out to be a little better. A large part of that is their ability to pass effectively, where they are ranked 26^th in the country, compared to the Lobos’ 109^th-place ranking. They are also an explosive offense, meaning that there is a really good chance that we’ll see the Cowboys rip off multiple big plays. The Lobo defense will need to have a great game tonight, otherwise Wyoming will put a bunch of points on the board.

In the next plot, we look at just the defensive ratings. In it, Defensive S&P+ is the overall defensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at stopping the rush and the pass, respectively. Standard Downs and Passing Downs can be thought of as how well the defense performs in the scenarios mentioned earlier in the description of the offensive stats, while Success Rate in this case is how good the defense is at preventing the offense at having a good Success Rate as described earlier. IsoPPP+ in this plot is a measure of how good a team is at preventing big plays.

On defense, neither team is particularly good, but Wyoming does rate out to being the better team in every category. Because neither team is particularly great at defense, but both are good on offense, one has to think that whichever team can force a few turnovers or limit the big plays is going to be the one that comes away with the win.

Scattered Thoughts

• It’s senior night, which means that we will celebrate a group of players that have been extremely important to this program. When most of them were recruited, the Lobos were coming off of several seasons where they were one of the worst teams in the FBS. So, these players had to take a chance on the team and place their faith in Coach Davie. Looking at where the program is now compared to where it was when they came in is startling, as this team will now be in a bowl game for a second-straight season and will have hopes of winning a conference title sometime in the next few years. None of that could have happened without these seniors, so I hope that we can give them the send-off they deserve tonight.
• With a conference title now out of the question, I’ve been wondering if fans would prefer to see the Lobos play in the New Mexico Bowl again, or travel to play in a different bowl game. I have mixed feelings about it myself, as playing here again is kind of fun and it would be great to see them win a bowl game at home, but I also don’t want the New Mexico Bowl to be seen as just a bowl game for the Lobos to play in if their eligible. And if they traveled to a bowl game and won it, would that feel more satisfying than if they won a bowl game here? Of course, worrying about this sort of thing is a nice problem to have.

Prediction

Wyoming is the better team by just about every metric and will want to win the division title outright, as that will likely let them play the conference championship at home. However, I’m going to be a gigantic homer and pick the Lobos to win 38-31. No way am I going to pick against these guys on senior night.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (7-4) vs Wyoming Cowboys (8-3)

When: Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 8:15pm MT

Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

Watch: ESPN2

Listen: 770 KKOB/94.5 FM