Fresh off of winning the 50th anniversary game for the Pit, the Lobos head back out on the road to take on Illinois State. This game is part of the Mountain West-Missouri Valley Challenge, where most of the teams from the two conferences are playing each other. It’s a good opportunity for the conference to prove its mid-major superiority, so hopefully the Lobos can do their part to help.
A Little About Illinois State
What they’ve done so far:
The story for the Redbirds has been pretty simple so far: they’ve won all of their home games and lost all of their road games. Their toughest game so far was when they traveled to TCU, losing to the Horned Frogs by 9 last week. The rest of their games, with the exception of non-D1 Ferris State, have been against solid, but not particularly good teams, like Fort Wayne, Murray St., and IUPUI. Aside from the 3-point road loss to Murray St., the Redbirds have handled all of those games pretty easily. It’s worth noting that all of their starters are averaging in double-digits, but the guys on the bench are averaging a combined 8.8 points per game.
Coach:
Dan Muller is in his fifth season with Illinois State, where he has compiled a 79-60 record. He actually played for the Redbirds back in the late 90’s, which incidentally was the last time the program made the NCAA Tournament. They’ve been slowly building towards a return trip recently, with a trip to the NIT last season and to the CBI the year before. While the Redbirds probably won’t end up with an at-large bid to the tourney this season, they are certainly capable of winning the conference tournament, if they can pull off an upset against Wichita State.
Probable Starters:
#1 Paris Lee (6’0” Guard, Senior): As the Redbirds’ point guard, Lee poses a threat to either score or distribute the ball. He’s averaging 13.8 points, 5.6 assists, and 2.2 steals per game while shooting 55.6% from three. He has been prone to turning the ball over, as he is averaging 4.0 turnovers per game.
#2 DJ Clayton (6’6” Guard, Junior): Clayton is a junior who transferred to Illinois State from Western Kentucky. He only played one season at WKU, but lost a year of eligibility when he transferred. He’s shot the ball pretty well from the floor so far this season and rebounds pretty well from his position, giving him 10.6 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. He hasn’t been a great free throw shooter and turns the ball over a bit too much, though.
#11 MiKyle McIntosh (6’7” Forward, Junior): McIntosh is a wing with good size who can both shoot and rebound well. He’s averaging 14.2 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, with a couple of those boards coming on the offensive end each game. He is also turnover-prone and can find himself in foul trouble, which limits his effectiveness a little, but he’s definitely dangerous all over the court.
#23 Deontae Hawkins (6’8” Forward, Junior): Hawkins has been the Redbirds’ best player so far this season, averaging 16.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. He’s also shooting 53% from the floor, including 46% from three and 82% from the free throw line. He’s going to be a handful.
#10 Phil Fayne (6’9” Center, Sophomore): In his first season of D1 ball, Fayne has adjusted pretty well. He’s averaging 11.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting over 60% from the field. He’s struggled from the free throw line, though, and will likely be the guy the Lobos target if they need to send someone to the charity stripe.
Some Relevant Stats
The Redbird’s calling card is their defense, where they rank 63rd on KenPom. They force teams to have a longer-than-average possession length and to shoot at a low percentage from two, which indicates that they haven’t been allowing teams to attack them in transition. They are susceptible to a couple of things though. They are below-average at defending the three and they send teams to the foul line too often. The Lobos have yet to show that they can exploit the first part, but they should be able to get to the line regularly in this one.
The Redbirds’ offense is highlighted by their three-point shooting, where they’ve hit 38.8% of their attempts, which is good for 53rd in the country. They also shoot pretty well from two, but they haven’t been great from the free throw line. They’ve also been a little sloppy with the ball, turning the ball over at a high rate.
Scattered Thoughts
- Sam Logwood had to miss the last game with an injury and was then joined on the training table by Tim Williams, who got hit in the neck early in the game and had to miss pretty much the entire second half. Obviously Tim being out is a huge hit for the Lobos, but Sam’s absence hurts the team too. If there is any silver lining to these two guys being out, it’s that the guys on the bench will get more minutes than they would otherwise, which could pay dividends down the road. Hopefully they’re both back soon.
- If Tim can’t go for this game, there’s a decent chance that we see Joe Furstinger get his first career start. Given the expectations going into the season, it’s a little surprising, but based on the way he’s been playing, he just might deserve it. If anything, I hope that the other guys on the team see his energy and intensity being rewarded and join in as well.
Prediction
This is going to be a tough game for the Lobos, especially if Tim Williams isn’t able to go. If he is, I think that the Lobos could end up pulling out a solid road win against a good team. However, if he’s not, I think that it’s more likely that the Redbirds come out with a win. I think that it will be close either way, though.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (5-2) vs. Illinois State Redbirds (3-2)
When: Saturday, December 3, 2016 at 6pm MT
Where: Redbird Arena, Normal, IL
Watch: ESPN3
Listen: 770AM/94.5 KKOB