After a thrilling come-from-ahead then come-from-behind win against UTEP, the Lobos travel down south to take on the NMSU Aggies again. While the Lobos have been a little up-and-down since the two teams first met a few weeks ago, the Aggies have been on a hot streak. Hopefully the Lobos can snap that streak to come out with a sweep of the season series.
A Little About NMSU
What they’ve done so far:
Since we last saw them, the Aggies have gone on a five-game winning streak, beating Bethune-Cookman, Nicholls St., San Diego, Air Force, and Long Beach State. Of those games, only the San Diego matchup was on the road, which, incidentally or not, was the closest game. The Aggies also had an interesting game against Bethune-Cookman, which is apparently a school and not a randomly generated player in Madden. Against the Wildcats, there was an altercation before the first media timeout that led to six Aggie players and two coaches being ejected from the game. Now, most of those were for leaving the bench, but one was Ian Baker, who threw a punch, leading to a one-game suspension. The short-handed Aggies still managed to pull out a comfortable win, though.
Coach:
With Marvin Menzies taking the job at UNLV, the Aggies did exactly what the Lobos did when their head coach fled for greener pastures: they hired the associate head coach. So, Paul Weir is in his first year as a head coach, but this is his 10th season with the Aggies overall. It sounds like he had a lot of responsibilities under Menzies, so some aspects of the transition should be pretty smooth, although as we’ve seen, being the head coach is just tougher in general. He does have the luxury of returning 4 starters from last season’s team, which is why they’re again the prohibitive favorites in the WAC. Weir also has a history with Coach Neal, as Noodles helped Weir get his first college basketball job at Iowa.
Probable Starters:
#4 Ian Baker (6’0” Guard, Senior): Baker has still be struggling a bit this season, but the offense still runs through him. Although his shooting hasn’t been great, he’s been really good at getting to the free throw line. His best game this season did come against the Lobos, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him have another solid game.
#13 Sidy N’Dir (6’2” Guard, Sophomore): N’Dir has started all season and has actually been the Aggies’ leading scorer. He’ll take a few threes each game, but has been making a concerted effort to drive the ball and either finish at the rim or get fouled.
#2 Braxton Huggins (6’3” Guard, Junior): After a fairly quiet start to the season, Huggins broke out in the aforementioned Bethune-Cookman game, where he became the go-to guy once half the team was ejected from the game. He dropped 28 points in that one, which led to him earning a starting spot. He’s been really good at both getting to the line and converting free throws, like Baker, but he’s also been great from deep so far this season. If I were to put money down on a guy having a big game against the Lobos, it would probably be Huggins.
#35 Jalyn Pennie (6’5” Guard, Junior): Yep, that’s right. The Aggies have been running a four-guard lineup for the past few games. Pennie has been fairly quiet for the Aggies this year, only averaging 3.4 points per game, mostly thanks to a 12-point performance in their first game. His minutes have fluctuated quite a bit, even though he’s started every game, which leads me to believe that if the Aggies feel like they need to go big, he’ll be the guard who gets left out.
#22 Eli Chuha (6’7” Forward, Sophomore): Chuha has probably been the Aggies’ best post player this season, even though he doesn’t have a ton of size. He’s making about two-thirds of his shots from the field and is drawing fouls at a high rate. He’s even been shooting the occasional three recently, so the Aggies might try to play some with all five guys on the perimeter occasionally.
Some Relevant Stats
The Aggies have generally played at a slow pace this season, with only two games having more than an average number of possessions. They’ve been solid on defense and average-ish on offense, which has led to their recent successes. On defense, they both force a high number of turnovers and prevent their opponents from shooting well from anywhere on the floor. Their glaring weaknesses on that end of the court are that they give up too many offensive rebounds and they foul too often.
On offense, they’ve been most effective scoring from two-point range, making 53.9% of their shots within the arc. They haven’t shot well from deep so far this year, although that has been starting to change in recent games. They do shoot about 20 threes a game, so if they get hot, which teams seem to do against the Lobos this season, it could be another frustrating game to watch.
Scattered Thoughts
- We were on vacation the past week, which is why things have been a little quiet around here, but we did get the chance to watch both the Illinois St. game on Saturday and the UTEP game on Wednesday. Those games did leave us with a few thoughts.
- First, as many, many people have pointed out, the three point defense is still killing the Lobos right now and that’s a big problem, as every team has at least one guy who can shoot lights-out from deep. I don’t know if the defensive scheme is to blame, as it’s the same scheme that it was last year and the Lobos only allowed teams to shoot 32.5% from deep then, which is really good. I’m not really sure what is different that is causing the change, but one thought is that the Lobos’ are forcing a noticeably higher rate of turnovers, which makes me wonder if they’re gambling for steals a little too often, which leaves them out of position to guard the perimeter. Might be worth keeping an eye on.
- I have no doubts that the Lobos win both games if Tim Williams is healthy. I was pretty happy with the way the team played against ISU and felt like they might have gotten a little home-towned at the end, but they clearly did miss having Tim in that game. The UTEP game felt like one of those classic cases of letting off the gas too early and letting a team back in the game. Again, I don’t know if that happens if Tim is around. We’ll never know, but it will be good to have him back.
- Players of the game:
at ISU: 1) Elijah Brown 2) Joe Furstinger 3) Damien Jefferson
vs UTEP: 1) Elijah Brown 2) Xavier Adams 3) Jordan Hunter
- UTEP’s coach, Tim Floyd, made a plea after the game that the result showed why UNM and UTEP should play every year and why UTEP should be in the Mountain West. To the first point, I can see where he’s coming from, as building back up a rivalry is fun and should lead to some exciting games down the road. However, because UTEP hasn’t been particularly good recently, it doesn’t really do anything for the Lobos. Having three wins against UTEP and NMSU doesn’t really add much to the Lobos’ tournament resume and a loss in any of those games can really hurt. If the Arizona series becomes a permanent fixture, then that would help a lot, but I don’t know why they might want to do that. To Arizona, playing the Lobos is like how playing UTEP is to Lobos. Could be fun, has some history, but is more likely to hurt than to help. As far as the Mountain West comment goes, it literally only makes sense geographically. In fact, their arguments for joining the Mountain West are similar to UNM’s arguments for joining the Big 12. And I think that either thing happening is just as likely.
Prediction
The Lobos won the first game comfortably at home, but that doesn’t really mean much. I think the Lobos still pull out a win, but it will more likely be a 3-point win than another 13-point win. I’ll go with a 71-68 Lobo win.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (6-3) at NMSU Aggies (7-2)
When: Saturday, December 10 2016 at 7:30 pm MT
Where: PanAm Center, Las Cruces, NM
Watch: ESPN3
Listen: 770 KKOB