It’s time to go bowling! After a long postseason drought, the Lobos are now making their second straight appearance in the New Mexico Bowl. Unlike last season, where they came into the game as underdogs, they’re the favorites this year. As such, there’s every expectation that the Lobos will pick up their first bowl win since 2007, and only their second since 1961.
A Little about UTSA
What they’ve done so far
The Roadrunners got off to a rocky start, losing three of their first four games with a lone win coming against a non-FBS opponent. However, they do have the good fortune of competing in Conference USA, which is in the conversation with the Sun Belt conference for the worst FBS conference right now. They were able to pick up five wins in conference play which, along with the win against the FCS opponent, allowed them to become bowl-eligible for the first time in their school’s history. To be fair, they’ve only been postseason eligible for three years now, so that’s not bad at all. Their best win this season was probably their 45-25 victory at Middle Tennessee, while their worst loss was a 52-49 defeat to UTEP in five overtimes.
Coach
Frank Wilson is in his first season with UTSA, coming over from LSU where he was the running backs coach, recruiting coordinator, and associate head coach for several years. He won several awards while at LSU, mostly as a recruiter, so UTSA is hoping that he’s got the right pedigree to take their program to the next level. He’s done well in his first season, improving a 3-9 team to a 6-6 record and a bowl appearance. If he keeps this up, however, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a team from a Power 5 conference come calling in the next couple of years.
Offense
The Roadrunners have a fairly balance offense, slightly preferring to run more often than pass. They are more effective in the air, however, so given the team’s relative strengths, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them air it out a little. Junior QB Dalton Sturm has been having a solid season, completing almost 60% of his passes, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, and recording 18 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions. He’ll also run the ball regularly, averaging about 8 rushing attempts per game.
His favorite target has been 6’4” junior WR Josh Stewart, who was an all-CUSA honorable mention selection. Stewart has caught 36 passes on the season with an 18.9 yards-per-catch average and 5 touchdowns. The team’s leader for touchdown receptions, though, has been junior Kerry Thomas Jr., who has caught 31 passes with a 16.5 yards-per-catch average and 8 touchdowns.
UTSA’s backfield primarily features two backs: senior Jarveon Williams and sophomore Jalen Rhodes. Williams leads the team in rushing yards, with 775, which have come on 191 rushes, good for 4.1 yards per carry. He’s picked up 8 touchdowns as well. While Williams has seen more touches, Rhodes has been the more effective runner, picking up 5.3 yards per carry and collecting 9 touchdowns on the season. They’re both threats as receivers out of the backfield, with a combined 35 receptions, 372 yards, and 1 touchdown.
Defense
The Roadrunners’ star on defense has been freshman linebacker Josiah Tauaefa, who set the school’s single-season record for tackles on his way to being named first team all-CUSA and CUSA Freshman of the Year. He was joined on the all-conference teams by junior defensive end Marcus Davenport (61 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery) and senior safety Michael Egwuagu (75 tackles, 1 interception, 1 fumble forced/recovered), who were both selected to the second team, and senior safety Jordan Moore (45 tackles, 1 interception, 1 forced fumble), who was an honorable mention.
Special Teams
Freshman Matt Guirdy is the main kick returner and although he’s pretty small at 5’8” 165, he’s been dynamic, averaging 24 yards per kickoff return and 16.3 yards per punt return. Sophomore Victor Falcon is the Roadrunner’s placekicker and is perfect on extra points and 10-15 on field goals, with a long of 45 yards. Their deep snapper is junior Matt Bayliss, who is worth mentioning because not only was he an all-CUSA honorable mention selection, he’s the tallest deep snapper in the FBS.
Some Relevant Stats
In the following two radar plots, Football Outsider’s S&P+ ratings related to both offense and defense are shown for both teams. In these plots, close to the middle represents the worst team rating for each stat, while close to the outside represents the best team rating. In the first plot, we look at just the offensive ratings. In it, Offensive S&P+ is the overall offensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at running and passing the ball, respectively. Standard Downs are how well the team performs in either first downs, second downs with less than 8 yards to go, or third and fourth downs with less than 5 yards to go. Passing Downs are how well the team performs in all other downs. Success Rate is how good the team is at getting at least 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% of the yards needed on second down, and 100% of the yards needed on third and fourth down. Finally, IsoPPP+ is a measure of how explosive a team is, that is, how good a team is at getting big plays.
As we can see, the Lobos’ offense is noticeably better in most facets of the game, with the exception of passing. That shouldn’t be much of a surprise at this point, as the Lobos have now pretty well embraced their identity as a running team. In fact, thanks to their offensive explosion against Wyoming, the Lobos now have the 28th rated offense overall, which should prove definitively that they can have an effective offense without being able to throw the ball well. UTSA doesn’t have a particularly impressive offense, ranking in the bottom 25% in just about every category.
In the next plot, we look at just the defensive ratings. In it, Defensive S&P+ is the overall defensive rating, and Rushing and Passing S&P+ are how good the team is at stopping the rush and the pass, respectively. Standard Downs and Passing Downs can be thought of as how well the defense performs in the scenarios mentioned earlier in the description of the offensive stats, while Success Rate in this case is how good the defense is at preventing the offense at having a good Success Rate as described earlier. IsoPPP+ in this plot is a measure of how good a team is at preventing big plays.
On defense, UTSA is better in every category, although they aren’t very good themselves. Overall, the Roadrunners are ranked 89th, while the Lobos are ranked 120th. In other words, this is unlikely to be a defensive showcase. UTSA is best at stopping the run, which bode well for them against the Lobos, although with how different the Lobos’ rushing attack is, who knows how that will shake out. It’s worth noting that the Lobos have been particularly vulnerable to big plays (surprising, I know), but UTSA hasn’t been particularly good at producing big plays. That could be good knew for the Lobos.
Scattered Thoughts
- Okay, so the Lobos ended up where they said they wanted to be: at home in the New Mexico Bowl. It’s debatable whether or not that’s what the fans wanted, but I can definitely see the reasoning behind wanting to stay in town. For one, even though they said they had other options, who knows what they were. They could have been bigger bowls, like say, the Las Vegas Bowl, or it could have been something like the Arizona Bowl, which is sort of like the booby prize for the bowl-eligible. For all we know, the New Mexico Bowl was the best available option. Besides, it’s also worth thinking about how much things like travel costs and conference sharing would cut into the payouts of other bowls. This could have been the best option in terms of dollars and cents as well. Finally, there’s something semi-romantic about winning a bowl game at home in front of your fans to finish exorcising the demons that have plagued the program ever since we were promised an extra digit on the scoreboard. They have a good shot to do just that this year. Then, hopefully we can have some other, bigger bowls in our sights.
- Congrats to Nik D’Avanzo and Teriyon Gipson, who were both selected to the all-MW second team! I would have liked to see Dakota Cox in there as well, but LB is a stacked position in the conference. At least he got honorable mention honors. Jason Sanders maybe should have deserved to be on a team as well, as he’s been great this season, but he ended up with an honorable mention as well. I could see him landing on one of the two teams next year, though.
- Time to finish it off for Markel.
Prediction
First off, UTSA is fully capable of going on the road and beating a team like the Lobos. However, I’m just not seeing it happen, especially if the wind is as bad as it’s supposed to be. I think the Lobos run all over the Roadrunners on the way to a 42-21 victory.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (8-4) vs UTSA Roadrunners (6-6)
When: Saturday, December 17, 2016 at 12pm MT
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: ESPN
Listen: 770 KKOB/94.5 FM