After facing a clearly-overmatched opponent in Arkansas-Pine Bluff at home, the Lobos head to Tucson, AZ to face a team on the other end of the spectrum. The Lobos will take on the 19th-ranked Arizona Wildcats Tuesday night, looking for what would be a huge upset win that would definitely get their season back on track.
A Little About Arizona
What they’ve done so far:
While the Wildcats maybe haven’t quite had the start they were hoping for, mostly because they haven’t gone undefeated, they have proven to be a very solid team. They picked up good wins away from home against Michigan State and Texas A&M and have completely avoided anything that could remotely be considered a bad loss. Their two losses came at neutral sites against Gonzaga and Butler, two teams who are currently ranked in the top 15. They’ve done this despite some injuries to key players, leaving them with only 7 healthy scholarship players for their game against UNM. Luckily for them, there’s not a lot of fat on the roster.
Coach:
Sean Miller is now in his 8th season with the Wildcats, compiling a 198-63 record and earning several coach of the year awards. He’s also taken the Wildcats to the Sweet Sixteen in four of his seven full seasons the team. With the two appearances in that round with Xavier, Miller has been to the Sweet Sixteen in more than half of his season as a head coach, which is pretty amazing to think about. As a side note, the Lobos already faced his brother, Archie, in their game against Dayton.
Probable Starters:
#5 Kadeem Allen (6’3” Guard, Senior): The lone healthy senior, Allen has been the best perimeter defender for the Wildcats this season. He’s averaging 1.7 steals and 0.9 blocks per game, both solid numbers for a guard. He’s shooting over 40% from three, so the Lobos will need to keep track of him on the perimeter.
#2 Kobi Jordan-Simmons (6’5” Guard, Freshman): Jordan-Simmons is a five-star recruit who has gotten his college career off to a good start. He’s averaging 12.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game while keeping a low turnover rate. He likes to drive the ball, but he’s not afraid to shoot it from deep either. He hasn’t really stood out on defense, which will need to improve if he’s going to be drafted in the first round at some point.
#1 Rawle Alkins (6’5” Guard, Freshman): Another five-star freshman, Alkins might end up being a one-and-done if he has a solid rest of the season. He shoots it well from all over the court and has been an effective rebounder on both offense and defense. If there’s a weakness to his game, it’s that he turns the ball over a bit too much.
#10 Lauri Markkanen (7’0” Forward, Freshman): Markkanen is the most likely one-and-done on the roster and why not? He’s a skilled 7-footer who can shoot it efficiently from deep, so it’s no wonder that DraftExpress currently has him 8th in their mock draft. He’s shooting 46% from deep, but he’s not afraid of contact either, as he gets to the foul line regularly. He’s been effective from the charity stripe too, shooting 84%. Bottom line, he’s going to be a handful.
#14 Dusan Ristic (7’0” Center, Junior): Yep, that’s right. Arizona starts two 7-footers. Ristic is more of a classic big, preferring to take his shots closer to the rim and grabbing a bunch of rebounds. He averages 10.7 points and 6.3 rebounds and, maybe most impressively, only 2.3 fouls per game.
Some Relevant Stats
Arizona is a team where their “weaknesses” are just where they are simply an above-average team in that category. By KenPom’s metrics, they have the 30th-best offense and the 28th-best defense, making them the 20th-ranked team overall. They shoot it well from all over the court, including the free throw stripe, they prevent teams from shooting well, they rebound well, they don’t turn the ball over, etc., etc., etc. The closest things they have to a real weakness right now is that they are young and, because of injuries, they have a thin roster. Neither has been much of a problem so far, though.
Scattered Thoughts
- After weeks of hints and promises, Coach Neal finally decided to make a lineup change against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Or changes, really, as only Tim Williams stayed in the starting lineup. Jalen, Dane, Aher, Tim, and Joe all started the game and got the game off to a good start, jumping out to an 16-0 lead 11 and a half minutes into the game. However, after the game, I don’t think we learned anything new about the team, simply because of the level of competition. The cynic in me says that this was a good game to make some drastic lineup changes, as just about any combination of players would have overmatched UAPB, but Noodles claimed that the same five guys might start against Arizona, which would be a much bigger statement. It will be interesting to see how the team responds, as they could either gel to become the team they have the talent to be, or this could be what leads the team to fall into dysfunction the rest of the year. It feels like a Hail Mary, but those end up working out sometimes.
- The Lobos shot 40 free throws against UAPB, which, interestingly enough, wasn’t even the most they’ve shot in a single game this season (they shot 43 against Houston Baptist). However, their performance from the line was incredible, as they only missed three foul shots as a team. For a team that excels at getting to the line, making a high percentage of those shots is of the upmost importance and, in general, they’ve been doing a good job of converting those opportunities. I’m not expecting them to make 92.5% every game, but 75-80% would be excellent. Just, stop missing the front ends of 1-and-1s, please?
Prediction
This is clearly going to be a tough game for the Lobos, as Arizona is a well-coached team with a lot of talent on the roster. However, with all of their injuries, they aren’t the deepest team. If the Lobos pull out a win, it will probably because they were able to draw a lot of fouls and force some of their players to play tentative defense. However, even then it might not matter. So, I’ll pick Arizona to win 74-62.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (7-4) vs. Arizona Wildcats (10-2)
When: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 7pm MT
Where: McKale Center, Tucson, AZ
Watch: Pac-12 Network
Listen: 770 AM/94.5 FM KKOB