Now that we’re done with non-conference play, it seems like a worthwhile time to take a step back and see how all of the players are performing so far. As we did in our season preview for the players, we’ll be looking at some advanced stats to try to get a sense of what’s working, and what’s not working, for each player.

As I did in the season preview post, it’s worth noting that a description of each of the statistics can be found at the bottom of this post and all of the stats were taken from kenpom.com. Also, clicking on any plot should enlarge it.

Point Guards

The plot above shows the three guys who have spent time at the point guard position, Jordan Hunter, Jalen Harris, and Anthony Mathis. Jordan has played the bulk of the minutes and, by and large, has been the best option at the position. He has the highest assist rate and the lowest turnover rate of the group, has been the best rebounder, and has been arguably the best three-point shooter on the team. He could probably stand to be a little more aggressive on offense, both in terms of taking more threes and also in terms of driving the ball to the basket. It would also be great to see him get to the free throw line more often, as he’s shooting 85% from the charity stripe.

Jalen has taken up almost all of the remaining minutes at the position, even starting the last couple of games. As we can see, his stats have been awfully similar to Jordan’s this year, with only mild differences between each player’s shapes in the plot above. That’s been really encouraging to see, as there hasn’t been a huge drop-off in play. Coach Neal has sometimes determined which of the two players gets more playing time based on how they perform in-game, and that’s not a terrible strategy, given how they have played so far. One thing that sticks out about Jalen is how effective he has been attacking the rim. He’s making 54% of his shots inside the arc, which is solid for a point guard. He’s had a really good debut as a Lobo and I hope that fans are paying attention to him.

Anthony Mathis has been glued to the bench this season, for whatever reason. Because of that, his plot is all over the place, thanks to the small number of minutes he’s been playing (only 16 minutes all year). I figured that he’d start getting more minutes at some point, but the fact that he barely made more than a cameo in any of the blowout games make me wonder if it’s ever going to happen. Hopefully he gets an opportunity soon.

Shooting Guards

The plot above shows the guys who I think of as being shooting guards – namely Elijah Brown, Damien Jefferson, and Dane Kuiper – even though there’s a lot of overlap between this group and the wings. As we’d expect, EB has played by far the most minutes of the group and, also unsurprisingly, taken the most shots. He’s had a noticeable drop-off in performance this year, seeing his offensive rating go from a very good rating of 111.6 to a below-average rating of 98.3. That’s mostly been caused by a couple of things: his three-point shooting percentage has dropped 12 percentage points from last year and his free throw shooting has dropped by 10 percentage points. Other than those two things, he’s having basically the same season he had last year, with similar rebounding, assists, and turnover rates. He’s not really even shooting much more than last year either, which might surprise some people. The main difference is that he’s missing a lot more shots, and people pay attention to that.

Damien Jefferson has looked, at times, to be one of the most naturally gifted offensive players the Lobos have had in years. Other times, he finds himself in tough positions and either forces a bad shot or turns the ball over. In other words, he’s a freshman. Damien has been particularly good driving the ball, making 54% of his two-pointers and getting to the free throw line with regularity. He hasn’t been great shooting the ball from range, making only one of his 13 attempts on the season, or from the free throw line, where he’s just making 57% of his attempts. His shot looks fine, which makes me think that we’ll see both of those percentages improve by the end of the season.

Dane Kuiper has a reputation for being a solid, all-around player, and the stats back that up. He shoots the ball well, he rebounds well, and he has a decent assist rate. He’s also been shooting the ball well from deep, which the team desperately needs. It would be good to see him cut down on his turnovers a little and to get to the free throw line more regularly, but he’s definitely been an asset for the Lobos this year.

Wings

The plot above shows the performance of the three guys (Sam Logwood, Xavier Adams, and Aher Uguak) who I’m classifying as wings, although they sometimes see time at other positions. Until recently, Sam was starting at wing, effectively making him a three-year starter. He’s been pretty good on offensive this season, recording an above-average offensive rating thanks to his good shooting overall. He’s been a little more aggressive on offense, taking a higher number of shots and drawing more fouls, which has been good to see. However, he’s been really tentative to shoot threes, which is weird for a guy who shot almost 40% last season and has made 4 of his 9 attempts this year. Because he’s basically abandoned that part of his game, he’s not stretching the court the way you’d expect a wing to do. I think he belongs on the court, but if he’s going to play that way, it might be best as a part of a four-guard lineup.

As we would have expected, Xavier still plays like his hair is on fire. He grabs a lot of boards, forces a lot of steals, and is involved in a bunch of fouls. Because of that, he’s actually taken more free throws than he has field goals, which gives him an astronomical free throw rate. Because his game sometimes seems beholden to the refs, he does find himself in foul trouble some games, although that hasn’t been as bad as it was last year. He’s also basically stopped taking threes, which is probably a good thing, as he’s a career 22% shooter from there.

Aher just playing was a little bit of a surprise, as the general expectation was for him to redshirt this year, but he’s been working hard and has been rewarded with a couple of starts recently. He hasn’t played a ton this season, but he’s had flashes where he’s shown that raw athleticism that makes him so exciting as a prospect. While he hasn’t made much of an impact on offense yet, he is leading the team in steal rate right now. Now that conference play is starting and the rotation is, presumably, going to be tightened, it will be interesting to see how much playing time he’ll get the rest of the year. My guess is that he’ll probably see reduced minutes, but given that he’s clearly on Coach Neal’s good side, who knows?

Posts

The plot above show the performance of the four post players, Tim Williams, Connor MacDougall, Obij Aget, and Joe Furstinger. Tim, unsurprisingly, has been the standout of the group, playing the most minutes, having a really good offensive rating, drawing a lot of fouls, and rebounding fairly well. He’s putting up pretty much the same season he did last year, except that he’s getting to the free throw line more often and converting his chances there. He’s one of the best post players in the conference and seems to be on track for another appearance on an all-conference team.

Connor has had a decent debut for the Lobos, mainly hampered by foul trouble. He’s been the team’s best rebounder on the offensive end, he draws a good number of fouls, and he makes 78% of his free throw attempts. Aside from the aforementioned foul trouble, he also turns the ball over a little too much and hasn’t been finishing as well around the rim as I thought he did. I think that the fouls have thrown him off his game a little, so if he can get that under control, I think we’ll see his production take a leap.

Obij has gotten the bulk of the minutes at the center position, although those minutes have been a little inconsistent. He has a hilariously high offensive rating, thanks to his 58% shooting from the field, his good offensive rebounding, and his ZERO turnovers on the season. Who had money on that happening? Anyway, Big O is what he is at this point. He blocks shots, makes a few dunks and put-backs a game, and occasionally gets into foul trouble. That might not be a star, but he’s still pretty useful.

Probably the biggest (positive) surprise of the season has been the emergence of Joementum. Joe has been really active, particularly on the boards and on defense. He’s leading the team in blocks, has the highest rebounding rate on the team, and seems to energize the team and the crowd when he comes in. He’s even been solid offensively, which seems like a cherry on top given what he does on the defensive end. He fouls a little too much and turns the ball over a little too much, but he’s had a much better season than just about anyone could have predicted.

Description of Stats

All of the stats shown are taken from kenpom.com.

• Min%: Percentage of possible minutes played. For example, in a 40 minute game, a player who plays 30 minutes would have a value of (30/40)*100 = 75%. Scale is from 0% to 100%
• ORtg: Offensive efficiency, which measures how effective the player is on offense. The higher the number, the better. Scale is from 75 to 140.
• Shots%: What percentage of the team’s shots did the player take when he was on the floor. So, if a team takes 10 shots while a certain player is on the court and that player took three of them, his value would be (3/10)*100 = 30%. Scale is from 0% to 35%.
• TS%: True shooting percentage, which is a weighted percentage of a player’s three point percentage, two point percentage, and free throw percentage. Scale is from 35% to 70%.
• OReb%: Offensive rebounding percentage, which is the percentage of potential offensive rebounds a player collects. Scale is from 0% to 20%.
• DReb%: Defensive rebounding percentage, which is the percentage of potential defensive rebounds a player collects. Scale is from 0% to 20%.
• ARate: Assist rate, which measures the percentage of baskets made by a player’s teammates that the player collected an assist on. Scale is from 0% to 40%.
• TORate: Turnover rate, which is the percentage of possessions that a player used where he turned the ball over. Scale is from 0% to 40%.
• BPS: A combination of block percentage and steal percentage. Block percentage is the percentage of opponent’s field goal attempts while the player is on the court that were blocked by the player. Steal percentage is the percentage of opponent’s possessions while the player is on the court where the player records a steal. BPS is just the two percentages added together. Scale is from 0% to 12%.
• FC/40: Fouls committed per 40 minutes played, which is calculated by taking the number of fouls the player committed over the season, dividing by the number of minutes that player played over the season, then multiplied by 40. Scale is from 0 to 10.
• FD/40: Fouls drawn per 40 minutes played, which KenPom estimates using some of the other statistics available, including total number of fouls committed by opponents, the amount of time the player was on the court, and the number of free throws the player took. Scale is from 0 to 10.
• FT%: Free throw shooting percentage, which is simply the number of free throws made divided by the number of free throws taken, multiplied by 100. Scale is from 0% to 100%.