After a, let’s say, rocky non-conference season, the slate gets wiped clean and the Lobos will now turn their attention towards a conference championship. Their first test will be Fresno State, the reigning conference tournament champions. They also have their sights at the top of the conference standings, so this will likely be an emotional, competitive game.
A Little About Fresno State
What they’ve done so far:
The Bulldogs have had a pretty ho-hum non-conference season, despite a solid 8-4 record. They didn’t really pick up any great wins – their best being a win against a mediocre Oregon St. team on the road – and suffered a bad loss to Prairie View A&M, which would have been similar to the Lobos losing to Arkansas-Pine Bluff. They did play well against a good Marquette team on the road, ultimately losing 84-81. Like most teams in the Mountain West, the Bulldogs will need to repeat as conference tourney champions if they’re going to make it back to the NCAA Tournament.
Coach:
Rodney Terry is in his 6th season at Fresno, compiling a 93-88 record overall. He seemed to be on the hot seat the last couple of seasons, but a conference championship and a return trip to the NCAA Tournament has put that talk on hold. In fact, he recently was awarded a contract extension, making it seem as though Fresno is committed to him for the foreseeable future. He has seen his team improve every year in conference play, going from 3-11 his first season to 13-5 last year. If the team does that again, they’ll likely win the regular season title.
Probable Starters:
#5 Jahmel Taylor (6’0” Guard, Junior): Taylor has been absolutely lights-out from three point range this season, making 55.2% of his nearly 6 attempts per game. He’s been a bit of a revelation for the Bulldogs, as he wasn’t really counted on for much the past couple of seasons. Now, he’s averaging 12.3 points per game. It remains to be seen if he can keep this sort of performance up, but even if its close, he’ll be a thorn in a lot of teams’ sides.
#1 Jaron Hopkins (6’6” Guard, Junior): Hopkins is a transfer from Colorado playing his first season with the Bulldogs. He has the highest usage rate on the team, spending a lot of time driving the ball to the basket and shooting only the occasionally three. That has resulted in a lot of free throws, a lot of assists, and a lot of turnovers. He’s also a bit of a ball hawk on defense, as he’s currently ranked 23rd in the country in steal percentage.
#3 Paul Watson (6’7” Forward, Senior): A four-year starter, Watson is playing some of his best basketball in his final collegiate season. He’s averaging 13.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per game while putting up the best shooting and efficiency numbers of his career. He’s shooting 46% from deep on five attempts per game, so leaving him open is simply not an option.
#11 Karachi Edo (6’6” Forward, Senior): Edo has only played in one game so far this season, thanks to being ruled academically ineligible, but I’m guessing that he’ll find himself back in the starting lineup soon. He might be an undersized post, but that doesn’t stop him from being an excellent offensive rebounder and shot-blocker. He isn’t necessarily a go-to guy on offense, but he still gets his fair share of points thanks to the second-chance opportunities. He’s not a very good free throw shooter, which can limit his effectiveness in close games, however.
#13 Cullen Russo (6’9” Forward, Senior): Russo is more of a stretch-4 on offense than he is a center, although he’s struggled a bit in that role, only making 22% of his threes in his career. He’s a pretty solid rebounder and defender, with really good rates in defensive rebounds, blocks, and steals. The combination of him and Edo could make it difficult to attack the rim, so the Lobos will either need to get them into foul trouble, or find other ways to score.
Stat Comparison
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
As we can see in the plot above, the Lobos have a slightly better offense than the Bulldogs, mostly driven by their offensive rebounding and their free throw shooting. In fact, Fresno is pretty bad at free throw shooting, overall. However, they are much better than the Lobos at three-point shooting, which has been probably the Lobos’ main weakness this season. Other than that, the teams rate out pretty similarly in most of the other stats.
On defense, the Bulldogs look to be a little better than the Lobos, mostly thanks to the difference in three-point defense. It’s also interesting to note that because teams struggle to make threes against Fresno, they don’t take as many. That’s, um, not the case for the Lobos. The Lobos do prevent teams from shooting well from within the arc better than the Bulldogs, however, and they also do a better job of keeping teams off the free throw line. We could see offensive strengths against defensive weaknesses on both ends of the court in this one.
Scattered Thoughts
- It feels good to finally get back to action, as it feels like it’s been an eternity since we’ve been able to watch them play and there have been all sorts of questions swirling around the program. Besides whatever off-the-court stuff is or isn’t going on (I have no idea and don’t really want to speculate), the team clearly needed to make some adjustments if they are going to have any chance to be near the top of the conference. One such adjustment is likely to be a shortening of the rotation. Playing 12 guys each game doesn’t really work in the long run, so I think that we’re likely to see 8 or 9 guys getting significant minutes. It will be interesting to see who those players end up being.
- As I pointed out in our conference reset yesterday, I think that this is going to end up being kind of a wild conference season. Both UNM and Fresno St. realize that their only path towards the postseason is to win a championship, so the pressure is on and I think it will be an intense game. I hope that our guys are up for the challenge.
Prediction
I feel pretty good about this one for the Lobos, actually. If the Lobos lose, it will probably be because they still haven’t figured out how to guard shooters on the perimeter and the Bulldogs make a couple dozen threes. However, I like to think that the coaching staff knows it’s been a problem and has taken steps to address it. So, with that optimism, I’ll take the Lobos to win 71-67.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (7-5) vs. Fresno St. Bulldogs (8-4)
When: Wednesday, December 28, 2016 at 7pm MT
Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: ESPN3
Listen: 770 AM/94.5 FM KKOB