The Lobos (4-6) have finished their non-conference schedule (depending on whether or not the Eastern Illinois game is rescheduled), and will open their Mountain West schedule on the road against the Fresno State Bulldogs (7-4). This game has a chance to be a building block for the Lobos, as a win at Fresno State will give them a huge conference road win and a leg up on the conference. While I don’t think the Lobos are in the top tier of the conference right now, road wins would help push the Lobos into that conversation. One thing that will be interesting to watch in this game is which team is can force their tempo on the other team. The Lobos so far this season have done a great job of dictating their tempo and playing around 78 possession per game, while Fresno tends to try to slow things down. Whichever team gets the tempo they want could decide the outcome of the game.
Fresno State Team Stats:
As we can see from their stats, the Bulldogs like to play at a much slower pace than the Lobos. While I don’t have the possessions per game information for the Bulldogs, my guess is they like to be around 65 possessions per game. One thing that we will also notice is that both teams don’t commit a lot of fouls, so there shouldn’t be a ton of free throw attempts in this game. That would benefit the lesser foul shooting team, which in this game is UNM.
| Bulldogs | Opponents | |
| Points Per Game | 61.7 | 58.3 |
| Field Goal % | 39.3% (251/638) | 37.2% (245/659) |
| 3 Point % | 27.8% (58/209) | 31.8% (62/195) |
| Free Throw % | 69.6% (119/171) | 65.9% (89/135) |
| Field Goals Per Game | 22.82/58 | 22.27/59.91 |
| 3 Pointers Per Game | 5.27/19 | 5.64/17.73 |
| Free Throws Per Game | 10.82/15.55 | 8.09/12.27 |
| Rebounds Per Game | 38.9, +.9 | 38.0 |
| Assists Per Game | 13.9 | 12.3 |
| Turnovers | 16.6 | 17.6 |
| Steals Per Game | 7.1 | 9.2 |
| Blocks Per Game | 6.2 | 3.1 |
| Fouls Committed Per Game | 13.73 | 15.54 |
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| Bulldogs | 16 (176) | 15.73 (173) | 15.64 (172) | 14.36 (158) |
| Opponents | 12.55 (138) | 14.36 (158) | 14.55 (160) | 16.82 (185) |
The Bulldogs have done a great job this season in the first three quarters of games and have been very consistent in their point production through those three quarters. Where the Bulldogs have had trouble is in the fourth quarter, where they have been outscored by 2.46 points. If the Lobos keep the game close or have a lead heading into the final 10 minutes, they will have a chance to win the game.
Fresno State Key Players:
The Bulldogs mainly rely on two players in Bego Faz Davalos and Candice White, so if the Lobos can limit their impact on the game, they should be able to come away with the win.
#4 Bego Faz Davalos is averaging 16.3 points, 11.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.45 steals, and a staggering 4.18 blocks a game. The match-up between her and van der Keijl will be a blast to watch.
#10 Candice White is averaging 14.2 points, 5.5 rebound, 1.8 assists and 1.82 steals a game.
Lobo Team Stats:
| Lobos | Opponents | |
| Points Per Game | 68.6 | 64.9 |
| Field Goal % | 38.4% (251/653) | 35.2% (248/704) |
| 3 Point % | 28.1% (68/242) | 30.6% (66/216) |
| Free Throw % | 55.9% (114/204) | 73.7% (87/118) |
| Field Goals Per Game | 25.1/65.3 | 24.8/70.4 |
| 3 Pointers Per Game | 6.8/24.2 | 6.6/21.6 |
| Free Throws Per Game | 11.4/20.4 | 8.7/11.8 |
| Rebounds Per Game | 47.3, +2.2 | 45.1 |
| Assists Per Game | 15.6 | 13.7 |
| Turnovers | 15.0 | 13.0 |
| Steals Per Game | 6.2 | 7.4 |
| Blocks Per Game | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| Fouls Committed Per Game | 13.9 | 17.8 |
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| Lobos | 18.2 (182) | 18.5 (185) | 15.9 (159) | 16.0 (160) |
| Opponents | 14.5 (145) | 16.9 (169) | 18.0 (180) | 15.5 (155) |
Players of the Game:
Marquette Game:
- Jaisa Nunn (10 points on the season)
- Alex Lapeyrolerie (6 points on the season)
- Rachelle van der Keijl (18 points on the season)
MW Picks:
(The team in bold is my pick for that game.)
CSU at UNLV
UNM at FSU
WYO at AFA
USU at BSU
Nevada at SJSU
The two games to watch on the slate today are the CSU/UNLV and UNM/FSU games, as both games will help decide the conference standings at the end of the year. If UNLV wants to challenge for the conference title, they need to win today against three-time defending champion CSU.
Game Prediction:
This has the makings to be a dogfight between the Lobos and the Bulldogs, with each team wanting to start the conference season with a win. To me, this is a classic toss-up game that the Lobos have a decent shot of winning. I give the Lobos a 46% chance of winning this game, and I think the Lobos will be able to control the pace of play and will come out with a 69-65 road win. For the Lobos to win tonight’s game, they need van der Keijl to win the battle in the paint against Faz Davalos, and for Cherise Beynon to be the best perimeter player in the game.
Game Info:
Who: New Mexico Lobos (4-6, 0-0) at Fresno State Bulldogs (7-4, 0-0)
When: Thursday December 29, 8 PM MT
Where: Save Mart Center, Fresno, California
Steam: Mountain West Network
Radio: 610 AM