Fresh off a conference-opening win against Fresno State, the Lobos will open 2017 with a visit to San Diego State. The Aztecs are again the conference favorites, so a win would be great for the Lobos, and for pretty much every team in the conference not named San Diego State.
A Little About San Diego St.
What they’ve done so far:
The Aztecs have had a pretty decent start to the season, picking up a nice neutral-court win against Cal and winning the Diamond Head Classic. They did have a rough time against a very good Gonzaga team, which could have been an opportunity to assert themselves as an NCAA Tournament team. In fact, that loss, combined with a three-game losing streak against middle-of-the-road teams and having some bad luck in getting some decent opponents in the Diamond Head Classic, have prevented the Aztecs from putting together the sort of resume they were hoping for. So, they’ll be needed to have a dominant run in conference play to be in the conversation for an at-large bid. That’s still a better position than most teams in the conference, who realistically can only make the NCAA Tournament by winning the MW Tournament in March.
Coach:
Steve Fisher is synonymous with SDSU basketball at this point, having coached the Aztec for almost two decades. He’s compiled a 375-199 record during his tenure at SDSU and a 559-281 record overall. He’s also made it to 8 NCAA Tournaments with the Aztecs, which is particularly impressive if you can remember where the program was 20 years ago. At 71 years old, he’s been subject to retirement rumors for a while, but keeps signing contract extensions, so who knows how much longer he’ll be around. When he finally does leave, it’s going to be a tough loss for his school, and for the Mountain West conference as a whole.
Probable Starters:
#42 Jeremy Hemsley (6’3” Guard, Sophomore): Hemsley has had a great start to his sophomore year, leading the team in scoring with 16.2 points per game while shooting 55.3% from deep. That three-point percentage is currently 11th in the country and, even if we’d expect to see that number go down, proves that he’s not a guy you want to give any space to on the perimeter.
#3 Trey Kell (6’4” Guard, Junior): Kell is second on the Aztecs in scoring, with 13.9 points per game, and leads the team in assists and steals, with 2.8 and 1.7 per game, respectively. He hasn’t been shooting particularly well from three this season (only 26.7%), but he shot 39.2% from there last year, so I expect that number to improve. He also does a good job on defense, posting a solid steal rate and rarely fouling.
#4 Dakarai Allen (6’5” Guard, Senior): Allen earns his keep on the defensive end, but is also effective scoring in transition. He is effective at blocking shots and forcing turnovers and, I would guess, will likely be tasked with shutting down Elijah Brown. He’s not a particularly good three-point shooter, and never has been, but he’ll still take a couple of attempts per game.
#14 Zylan Cheatham (6’9” Forward, Sophomore): Cheatham is a super-athletic player who likes to jump over everyone else, whether that is going for a rebound or to dunk on an opponent. He’s one of the Aztecs’ best defensive players and is their best rebounder. He is also really effective at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, where he shoots 78%. If he and Hemsley stick around for all four years (which I’d expect), they’re going to be a solid core for the Aztecs to continue to build around.
#21 Malik Pope (6’10” Forward, Junior): Pope is the sort of guy who can look like a first-round draft pick one game and a guy who should be glued to the bench in college the next. His games against UNM last year were evidence of this, as he only scored 3 points in one game and managed to drop 20 in the other. He can play good defense and can shoot from pretty much anywhere on the court, which is why people occasionally think of him as a potential lottery pick, but he hasn’t shown the sort of consistency that he needs to. I’m not sure if he’ll play in this game (as he missed the last couple with a knee injury), so if he doesn’t, expect to see sophomore Max Hoetzel start in his place.
Stat Comparison
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
As we can see, the Lobos and the Aztecs have a pretty similar offensive rating overall, but they go about it in different ways. Remember how in recent years, the Aztecs would mostly look to force the ball inside or settle for midrange jumpers? They aren’t that team anymore. Three point attempts now take up 42.5% of their field goal attempts, which is about 10 percentage points higher than any other season in the last 15 years. The interesting thing is that they aren’t necessarily shooting threes better than they have previously, they just take a lot more of them. They also play at a really slow pace, but that’s mostly driven by the fact that it seems like teams have to work for a while before they can get a shot off against this defense. Their offense runs at a roughly average pace.
Unsurprisingly, the Aztecs are still good at defense. They’re currently ranked 37th overall in defensive efficiency, a ranking they’ve earned because they basically do everything well on defense. They don’t let teams shoot well from anywhere on the court, they don’t give up many second-chance opportunities, and they don’t foul much. They Lobos will need to take advantage of any open shots they get, as the Aztecs will make them work for all of their points.
Scattered Thoughts
- I thought that the Lobos played pretty well, overall, against Fresno State on Wednesday. One of the biggest knocks against them the past couple of seasons is that they haven’t responded well to adversity, so seeing them regain their footing after a couple of FSU rallies was good to see. Plus, after expressing a need for more people to chip in on offense, Noodles saw Big O and Dane score in double-digits and Jalen add 9 points of his own. Dane in particularly is starting to look like he’s coming into his own and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finds his way into the starting lineup permanently.
Also, I know I’ve been bad about doing this recently, but here are my players of the game for this one: 1) Tim Williams, 2) Dane Kuiper, and 3) Elijah Brown. - Speaking of Elijah, there was some semi-controversy going on last week (as there apparently must be in Loboland), this time surrounding EB and Coach Neal’s relationship. There were certainly rumblings that EB wasn’t happy with Noodles and, interestingly enough, in the postgame show Noodles basically apologized to Elijah. Hopefully whatever rift was going on between them can start to be fixed, as they really need to be on the same page if this team is going to come close to reaching its potential and I think they both know that. This next game will be a good test, as if the team is disjointed at all, it’s going to be ugly. But, if they aren’t, they have a shot of coming out with the upset.
- I’m not going to lie, without a guy as unlikeable as either Jamaal Franklin or Winston Shepard, it’s a little bit harder to hate the Aztecs. Maybe someone will step up for them soon.
Prediction
It’s not easy to beat SDSU on the road. The Lobos almost pulled it off last year (and should have pulled it off, really), so they know that it’s possible. However, it still feels a little unlikely, especially as the Lobos still seem to be working on some things. So, I’ll pick the Aztecs to win 71-60, but I would love nothing more than to see the Lobos prove me wrong.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (8-5, 1-0) vs. San Diego St. Aztecs (8-4, 0-0)
When: Sunday, January 1, 2017 at 3pm MT
Where: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: 770 AM/94.5 FM KKOB