After pulling out a huge road win against San Deigo State, the Lobos are back at it Wednesday night, where they’ll head to Logan, UT to take on the Utah State Aggies. Last year, the Lobos had this same road trip, but instead of a great win, they were coming off a deflating, controversial loss and came out flat. Hopefully this game will also be the exact opposite as last year’s.
A Little About Utah State
What they’ve done so far:
The Aggies have been a team of streaks this season, both good and bad. They started out winning their first four games, but then ran into some stiff competition in Purdue, Texas Tech, and BYU, losing all three of those games. After losing their next game, they recovered to win their next three games, but are back on a three-game losing streak going into this game. What is really driving things, though, is simply the quality of their opponents. They haven’t beat a team with an upper-half KenPom rating, but have only lost one game to a team with a lower-half rating (Air Force). If that pattern continues, that’s good news for the Lobos, as UNM is now ranked 115th out of 351. USU is already 0-2 in conference play, having lost at home to Boise State and on the road to Air Force, so the Aggies are in desperate need of a win right now.
Coach:
Tim Duryea took over as head coach last year when his former boss, Stew Morrill, retired. Duryea has actually been at Utah State since 2002 and is fairly well-respected as a coach, but is still in the process of building his version of the program. He has a 22-22 record overall with an 8-14 record in conference play.
Probable Starters:
#0 Shane Rector (6’2” Guard, Senior): Rector is one of only two seniors on the Aggies roster, but has only been with the program for a couple years, having started his career at Missouri. He’s a fairly high-volume guy, using most of his opportunities to drive to the rim. Because of that, he gets fouled pretty regularly. He’ll still shoot his fair share of threes though, averaging about three a game and making roughly a third of those attempts. He also has a high steal rate, leading to his 1.7 steals per game.
#1 Koby McEwen (6’4” Guard, Freshman): McEwen has been one of, if not the most impressive freshmen in the conference and is probably the second-best player on the Aggies already. He’s averaging 13.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game while shooting 55% from the field and 40% from three. Like Rector, he gets to the line pretty regularly as well.
#11 Alexis Dargenton (6’8” Forward, Sophomore): Dargenton is a newcomer to the Aggies, having played at a JuCo last year. He mostly plays inside the arc, but will occasionally step back to shoot a three. He’s not a great shooter, though, making 44% of his two-pointers, 31% of this threes, and 56% of his free throws. He is a solid rebounder, though, and is actually averaging more rebounds than points right now (5.0 vs 4.6).
#14 Jalen Moore (6’9” Forward, Senior): Moore has basically been the face – and hair – of the program since he stepped foot on campus and that hasn’t changed this year. He shoots well from all over the court, blocks his fair share of shots without fouling, and gets to the line with regularity. He’ll be in the conversation for first team all-MW, most likely.
#15 Norbert Janicek (6’11” Center, Sophomore): Janicek is another JuCo transfer in his first season with the Aggies and has started almost every game this year. Of course, that’s mostly out of necessity, as the only other guy on the team who is 6’9” or taller is Jalen Moore, and he’s not a post. He’s effective around the rim, making 62% of his shots from two, but is pretty weak from the free throw line. He’s also still clearly adjusting to D1 play, as he has a fairly high turnover rate (especially for a big man) and has a tendency to get into foul trouble.
Some Relevant Stats
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
As we can see, Utah State has a slightly above average offense that focuses on ball movement, limiting turnovers, and shooting well inside the arc. They do take an average number of threes and shoot almost exactly league-average from range, so they’re certainly not a run-and-gun style of offense. They also don’t rebound particularly well on the offensive end, ranking in the bottom-25 in that category. We can also see how valuable the Lobos’ free throw shooting is, as they’re a noticeably better offense overall, but trail Utah State in several categories. It can be a winning strategy, but as I’ve mentioned before, if they don’t manage to get to the line, that is, they’re not getting calls, their offense can sputter. Hopefully they can improve in some other areas to be more consistent game-in and game-out.
The two teams have roughly even defenses, with the Lobos rating out slightly better. The main thing that the Lobos do better is force turnovers, which the Aggies aren’t particularly good at. The Aggies are better than the Lobos at forcing teams to shoot a low percentage and at keeping them off the offensive glass.
Scattered Thoughts
- So how about that game on Sunday? After being down by double-digits for a good chunk of the game, the Lobos managed to storm back at the very end to stun the Aztecs with a 68-62 win. That was easily the team’s biggest win of the year and one of the biggest of Coach Neal’s career. In fact, if the team manages to reach its potential, it will be because they continued playing the way they did in the second half of this game. They were able to spread the court to let Tim and Elijah go to work, move the ball around to get good looks against a tough defense, play solid defense themselves, and draw fouls against a team that usually doesn’t foul. I think that both Dane Kuiper and Xavier Adams deserve a lot of credit for that second half performance, as they really were the guys who sparked the turn-around. Hopefully they’ll both get more minutes in the future.
Players of the game: 1) Elijah Brown, 2) Dane Kuiper, 3) Xavier Adams - The injury bug has started to get to the Lobos, with Obij Aget likely out for a while with a broken hand and Jordan Hunter missing at least this game with an ankle injury. I think that we have an idea of what’s going to happen in the post, in that the rotation will now just include Joe Furstinger instead of Big O, but the point guard position is another story. Apparently, the plan right now is to give Anthony Mathis a chance as the backup point guard and Elijah some minutes there too. Neither guy seems like a natural point guard to me, but there really aren’t many other options on the team. Hopefully Jalen Harris is ready to go for 30+ minutes, though. He’s been great recently and the team needs him now more than ever.
Prediction
It may be just optimism speaking, but I have a feeling that the Lobos might have finally turned the corner and are becoming the team we keep hoping they’ll be. Because of that, I really like their chances in this game, even with the two injuries. I’ll take the Lobos to win 75-70.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (9-5) at Utah State Aggies (7-7)
When: Wednesday, January 4, 2017 at 9:15pm MT
Where: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
Watch: ESPNU
Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB