The Lobos are in a bit of a skid, having lost three straight conference games, all of which saw them with second-half leads. Unfortunately, things don’t get easier from here, with another tough road swing staring them in the face. First up is Colorado St., who are one of the hottest teams in the conference and tend to play well at home. It won’t be an easy one, by any measure, but a win could be just the thing to get the team back on track, and talk some Lobo fans off the ledge.
A Little About Colorado State
What they’ve done so far:
After going 8-5 in non-conference play, including a solid win at Colorado, the Rams have gotten off to a hot start in conference play. They’re 3-1 so far, with wins against UNLV, Air Force, and at SJSU, and a one-point loss at Boise State. Aside from Boise State, that hasn’t exactly been a tough start to their conference season, but they’ve looked pretty good regardless. We’re probably a few weeks away from knowing how seriously to take them as contenders for the conference title, especially with some pending ineligibilities, but they’re in the hunt right now.
Coach:
Everyone’s favorite Diet Coke addict, Larry Eustachy, is now in his 5th season with the Rams. He just picked up his 500th win last week (his 98th with the Rams), so he’s be around for a while and has had good success pretty much wherever he’s been. His teams tend to rely on transfers, and this year is no different, with only one player having more than a single year of experience playing for the Rams. He seems to have both his fans and enemies among the CSU fan base (go figure), but he was just extended through the 2020-21 season, so he’ll probably still be around for a few years.
Probable Starters:
#11 Printiss Nixon (6’2” Guard, Sophomore): Nixon has been the third option for the Rams, averaging 12.5 points per game on the season. He’s a bit of a gunner, taking about 10 shots per game, but he also gets to the free throw line with regularity, where he is an 83% shooter.
#22 JD Paige (6’3” Guard, Sophomore): Paige is the main distributor of the Rams’ offense, leading the team with 2.8 assist per game. On top of that, he averages 8.9 points per game, so he’s not afraid to shoot it. He’s not a great perimeter shooter, making 29% of this threes, but he’ll get hot occasionally.
#3 Gian Clavell (6’4” Guard, Senior): Clavell is back for his second senior season, having missed most of last year with a hand injury. He’s the Rams’ best scorer, averaging 16.5 points and 5.4 rebounds per game on the season (numbers that jump up to 21.5 and 7.3 in conference play). He’s a 40% three-point shooter and will likely attempt a bunch against the Lobos.
#2 Emmanuel Omogbo (6’8” Forward, Senior): Omongbo has been a beast this season, averaging a double-double with 12.8 points and 10.6 boards per game. He spends most of his time down low, but he’ll still shoot a couple of threes each game. He’s also a very good rebounder on both ends of the floor, leading the team in both offensive and defensive rebounds.
#32 Nico Carvacho (6’11” Center, Sophomore): Carvacho is easily the biggest player on the Rams and plays how you’d probably expect. He takes the vast majority of his shots down low, he rebounds well, he blocks shots, and he’s not a great free throw shooter. He’s also prone to getting into foul trouble, which is something the Lobos should try to exploit.
Some Relevant Stats
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
The Lobos have had the better offense over the course of the season, but the Rams have been unstoppable in conference play. Their big change has been a massive increase in their three-point shooting percentage, going from 30% to 42%. It might just be a small-sample fluke, but it’s definitely something for the Lobos to watch out for. They’re also a good offensive rebounding team, which isn’t a surprise for a Eustachy team, which means that the Lobos will need to box out well, or they’ll give up a bunch of second-chance points.
Would you have guessed that CSU has been tied for the best defense in conference play so far this year? I wouldn’t have, that’s for sure. They do a particularly good job defending the perimeter, allowing teams to shoot less than 30% from there. For whatever reason, teams still try to take a bunch of threes against them, which either means that they’re actually good a goading teams into taking bad three-pointers, or they’ve been exceedingly lucky that teams haven’t been hitting shots against them. Either way, it will probably be in the Lobos’ best interest to try to attack the basket.
Scattered Thoughts
- In case you haven’t heard, Eustachy has kept playing three players, Kimani Jackson, Devocio Bulter, and Che Bob, after finding out that they will become academically ineligible for games after Jan. 17th. It’s been kind of a weird situation. After all, when a player is suspended, typically there’s not a two-week advanced warning to go along with the suspension. Some have called for Eustachy to sit these players now to show that their program won’t tolerate athletes who don’t keep up with their classes, but others have been a little more lenient, wanting to let the players play while they still can. Eustachy himself has sort of split the difference, playing each of the players in their first game after the news and then only a combined 2 minutes in their other game. I’m not really sure how I feel about this, but I do know a couple of things. First, if I’m being honest with myself, if this happened to the Lobos, I would probably find it easy to justify them playing while they’re still eligible. And second, say what you want about the Coach Neal era, but you can’t deny that the Lobos have done a great job in the classroom for the past several years. So, hopefully we’ll never have to be in this situation ourselves.
- Lost in the frustrations of the past few games has been the emergence of a couple of guys: Dane Kuiper and Jalen Harris. Noodles has been looking for a third and fourth scorer, and it’s starting to look like he may have found them. Jalen has been aggressive driving the ball and getting to the free throw line with regularity while Dane has solidified himself as a legitimate three-point threat. At this point, especially with Jordan Hunter’s injury, I don’t see a reason why they both shouldn’t be playing 30+ minutes per game.
- Like NMSU, CSU is an Under Armour school, which means that the Lobos have to play with the Under Armour balls again rather than the Nike balls that they, and a lot of other teams, typically use. I don’t know how much it will really affect the players shooting, but I would expect that it does (and you can do a Google search to see plenty of anecdotes of it affecting players). After all, players get used to what they practice with, so any sort of variation will take a bit to get used to. I’d rather see everyone use the same ball, but the NCAA is such a jumbled mess sometimes that it’s unlikely we’ll ever see that happen.
Prediction
CSU is playing as well as anyone in the conference, are at home, and have had a full week to prepare for the Lobos. I’m expecting the Lobos to have a tough time in this one, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll take some frustrations out on the Rams. I’ll take CSU to win 72-69, but I do think that the Lobos can go in and steal a road win if they play well for all 40 minutes.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (9-8, 2-3) at Colorado St. Rams (11-6, 3-1)
When: Saturday, January 14, 2017 at 12PM MT
Where: Moby Arena, Ft. Collins, CO
Watch: Root Sports
Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB