After probably the lowest point of the season, where a three-game losing streak was followed by a win that was overshadowed by some negative national attention, the Lobos finally had a feel-good win. Their 81-70 victory up in Boise felt significant for a lot of reason, and they can justify those feelings tonight, when they take on a feisty Wyoming squad in the Pit.
A Little About Wyoming
What they’ve done so far:
After kind of a weird finish to last season, where they basically sent a skeleton crew to the MW Tournament and then saw their head coach step down at the end of the year, combined with losing Josh Adams made most believe that the Cowboys were going to take a major step back this year. In fact, in the preseason conference poll, they were picked 10th out of the 11 teams. They haven’t proved to be the pushover that everyone assumed, however, following a solid 10-3 out of conference schedule with a 3-3 start to conference play. What has been interesting, though, is that because they had one of the better out of conference performances, expectations had jumped up going into the conference season, so they’ve somewhat underperformed those readjusted expectations. As per usual, the truth is probably in the middle
In conference play, Wyoming has been a little up and down, with convincing wins against Air Force, Utah State, and SJSU and convincing losses against Nevada, Fresno State, and UNLV. They seem to be better at home than on the road, but they’re no pushover wherever they are. Like most teams in the conference this year, they seem fully capable of beating or losing to anyone else in the conference on any given night.
Coach:
With Larry Shyatt stepping down in the offseason, Wyoming promoted Allen Edwards to the top spot. Edwards had spent the previous five seasons as an assistant coach for Shyatt, so most people figured that he would carry on the grinding style of play that the Cowboys became known for. Nope! They went from being one of the slowest tempo teams in the country to one of the fastest, making their games almost unrecognizable. Edwards has bounced around a lot of places, from Kentucky to VCU to Western Kentucky, so he’s clearly got his own style built from a wide variety of experiences. Time will tell if his style will work in Laramie, but early returns seem positive.
Probable Starters:
#3 Alexander Aka Gorski (6’5” Guard, Junior): Aka Gorski is the sort of guy who isn’t afraid to let it fly from behind the arc. It’s not uncommon for him to shoot more than six threes in a game and in two of the last three games he had 10 attempts. Because he’s an okay, and not great three point shooter, his scoring varies wildly, scoring 20 points one game and 4 the next. In other words, some games he can carry the team, other games he kind of fades into the background.
#23 Jason McManamen (6’5” Guard, Senior): A local boy for the Cowboys, McManamen earned a reputation as a gunner last season, taking as many as 15 threes in a game at one point, and shooting 45% from deep. He hasn’t reached either of those marks this season (having a season-high of 14 attempts in one game and a 32% three-point shooting percentage), but there’s still time.
#11 Jeremy Lieberman (6’1” Guard, Junior): Lieberman is… out there sometimes, I guess. He’s having a rough season in general, with a low shooting percentage, mediocre assist numbers, and a high turnover rate. He has a decent steal rate, so maybe they like his defense?
#5 Alan Herndon (6’9” Forward, Junior): Herndon is an athletic big who is comfortable shooting from anywhere on the court. He’s most effective down low, but he’s a decent enough three-point shooter to keep teams honest. On defense, he’s a very good shot blocker, rejecting shots at a high rate while avoiding fouls. He’ll play a decent amount of time at the 5, when the Cowboys put in Hayden Dalton – who is probably their best player and not starting for whatever reason – at the 4.
#33 Jordan Naughton (6’10” Center, Sophomore): Naughton is the Cowboys’ “true big” in the rotation, focusing on shots close to the rim and rebounds. He is clearly the best offensive rebounder in their rotation and he’s a pretty good rim protector as well. However, he does find himself in foul trouble on occasion, which can really limit his minutes.
Some Relevant Stats
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
Well, we can clearly see what the Cowboys’ focus is this year: playing fast, moving the ball around, and taking threes. However, they aren’t a particularly good three-point shooting team, shooting at a worse percentage than the Lobos. They also don’t focus too much on their offensive rebounding, so the Lobos have to make sure to take care of business on the defensive glass. The Cowboys do like to get to the foul line and are good shooters when they get there, so don’t be surprised if there are a ton of free throws shot and made in this game. All in all, those things make the Lobos rate out as a better offensive team overall.
Wyoming looks like the better defensive team in this matchup, mostly thanks to the fact that they seem to force teams to take a lot of threes, but to shoo them at a low percentage. They also do a pretty good job on defense down low, although they can send teams to the line too much. It is interesting to me, however, that the things they seem to be particularly good at on defense are things that the Lobos don’t really try to do, so they might have some issues trying to stifle the Lobos’ offense.
Scattered Thoughts
- I don’t think enough can be said for how different the end of a close game feels with Jordan Hunter on the court. Not only does he allow Neal to play a lineup with three ball handlers in him, Jalen Harris, and Elijah Brown, he is excellent at the free throw line. I have no doubt that if he were available, the Lobos hold on to the lead against Nevada. Seriously, it’s so good to see him look healthy again.
- Assuming that teams start beating Nevada at some point, I think that there’s a decent chance that a 13-5 record will win the conference. For the Lobos to do that, they’ll have to go 9-2 the rest of the season. Some games, like the last two, it feels completely doable, as I really do think that their peak is higher than anyone else’s that I’ve seen. Other games show that anything can happen. However, if they can defend the Pit the rest of the season, I think they’ll be in the hunt all the way to the end. Should be fun.
Prediction
I feel good about this one. The Lobos are playing well, they’re at home, and I think they can match up well against the Cowboys. They will need to defend the three point line, but if they do, they could come away with a comfortable win. I’ll take the Lobos to win 85-72.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (11-8, 4-3) vs Wyoming Cowboys (13-6, 3-3)
When: Saturday, January 20, 2017 at 6PM MT
Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB