The Lobos are now on a three-game winning streak and are riding as high as they’ve been all season. They’ll take this high into their rematch with Utah State, who the Lobos lost to out in Logan in a game that began the three-game losing streak that the Lobos just pulled themselves out of. It clearly won’t be an easy game, but if the Lobos keep playing well, they’ll have a good shot at getting their revenge.
A Little About Utah State
What they’ve done since last time:
(Here is the preview for the first time these two teams met)
Since the Aggies’ 79-75 win against the Lobos on January 4th, they’ve had a rough go at it. They managed to win their next game in convincing fashion against UNLV, but then lost games at Wyoming, at SDSU, and then at home against Colorado State. That three-game losing streak dropped their record below .500 for the first time this year, a put them in a tie for last place in the conference. Thankfully for them, the league is really bunched this year, so that’s only three games out of first place. However, one has to think that they’re starting to run out of time if they don’t turn things around soon.
Coach:
Tim Duryea took over as head coach last year when his former boss, Stew Morrill, retired. Duryea has actually been at Utah State since 2002 and is fairly well-respected as a coach, but is still in the process of building his version of the program. He has a 24-25 record overall with an 10-17 record in conference play.
Probable Starters:
#4 Sam Merrill (6’4” Guard, Freshman): Merrill moved into the starting lineup the last time the Aggies faced the Lobos and has stayed there since. He’s likes to shoot it, taking about a quarter of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor, and he’ll mostly do his work from the outside, as he’s not really one who looks to get fouled all that often. He’s a very good shooter from deep, making about 45% of his attempts on the season, and he distributes the ball well, with a solid assist-to-turnover ratio.
#1 Koby McEwen (6’4” Guard, Freshman): McEwen is still looking like the guy to beat for MW Freshman of the Year, as he’s averaging 17.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game while shooting 47% from three in conference play. He shot 16 free throws against the Lobos last time out, so let’s hope we don’t let that happen again.
#11 Alexis Dargenton (6’8” Forward, Sophomore): Dargenton has solidified himself as the best rebounder on the Aggies, averaging more rebounds per game than the second leader (Moore) in about half the minutes. He’s tends to be a fourth or fifth option on offense, so he’s mostly out there for rebounds and defense.
#14 Jalen Moore (6’9” Forward, Senior): Moore has continued his solid senior season, averaging 17.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game in conference play. He’s also getting to the line somewhat regularly, where he’s only missed one attempt in conference play, and is shooting about 40% from three. He had a great game against the Lobos last time out, scoring 20 points with 7 rebounds and 5 assists, so one has to think that slowing him down will be a focal point of this game.
#15 Norbert Janicek (6’11” Center, Sophomore): Janicek is another guy who is primarily out there for rebounding and defense. In conference play, he hasn’t taken more than 4 shots in any single game and hasn’t scored more than 7 points either. He’s really the only “true big” that they have on the team, so the Aggies tend to play small most of the time, as Janicek only plays about half the game, more or less.
Some Relevant Stats
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
The Lobos rate out as being a better offensive team overall, but, as we’ve seen several times against several teams, they trail Utah St. in both three point shooting and three point defense. The Aggies are also better in a few other categories, such as avoiding blocks or steals and their assist rate. However, we see that the combination of lots and lots of free throws with superior two-point shooting can make up for some deficiencies elsewhere.
On defense, the teams rate out roughly equal-ish, with the Lobos being slightly better. The Aggies do a better job of keeping teams off the free throw line and off the offensive board, but they really don’t force all that many turnovers and they’re a little vulnerable inside the arc. However, they are solid against the three, both at keeping teams from shooting too often from there or from shooting a high percentage.
Scattered Thoughts
- Elijah Brown won the Mountain West Player of the Week this past week mostly thanks to his dominant performance against Wyoming, where he scored 33 points, had 10 boards, 3 assists, a block, a steal, and only one turnover. He’s really picked it up since conference play started on both ends of the court and is right back in the conversation for conference player of the year. I think that a big part of that is that he’s playing more within himself than he was earlier. The shot selection has improved, which has caused his three-point shooting to improve dramatically (27.6% to 40.8%), and he’s not forcing passes as much, which has dropped his turnover numbers a little bit. The Lobos need this version of EB to win the conference, as the combination of him and Tim Williams with the ever-growing supporting cast is really, really hard for teams to guard.
- Speaking of EB, thanks to some silly foul trouble, he only played 15 minutes against Utah State last time. And he still scored 17 points. I have a good feeling about this game if he’s able to play 30+, as per usual.
- Did you know that the Lobos are shooting 39.4% from three-point range in conference play? Feels worth mentioning (EB shooting 40% and Dane Kuiper shooting 56% from deep certainly help).
Prediction
Even though the Lobos lost the last time out against the Aggies, it was hard to come away from that game without thinking that it was a missed opportunity. So, I think that the Lobos will be more ready to seize the opportunity this time and that they will come away with a solid 81-68 victory.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (12*8) at Utah State Aggies (7-7)
When: Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 9pm MT
Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: ESPNU
Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB