The Lobos are on a roll right now, having won 4 straight games and moving just a half game back of first place in the conference. They now head on the road to take on the only team ahead of them: the Nevada Wolf Pack. You probably remember what happened last time these two teams faced each other, as it is now required to be mentioned at least eight times each Lobo game, so you know the Lobos haven’t forgotten either. I’m sure they’ll be ready for this one.

A Little About Nevada

What they’ve done since last time:

The Wolf Pack have had a good three weeks since we last saw them, going 3-1 with wins on the road against Wyoming and Boise State and at home against Air Force. Their lost misstep happened last Saturday, when they lost to Fresno State for the second time this season, this one in Reno. That means that Fresno State is the lone team to beat Nevada, which is a big reason for why the Wolf Pack are now in sole possession of first place. They did manage to bounce back from that loss at home by heading up to Boise and thrashing the Broncos, 76-57. That convinced a lot of people that they’re the clear favorites in the conference, and a second win against the Lobos would probably convince everyone else.

Coach:

Eric Musselman is in his second season with the Wolf Pack, having compiled a 41-18 record so far. He’s been kind of a nomad in his career, never spending more than three years anywhere since 1995, but always coaching. He’s spent time as a head coach the NBA for the Warriors and the Kings and in the D-League for a couple of years as well. Nevada is his first collegiate head coaching job, but if things keep going well, it’s unlikely to be his last. There have been recent rumblings of the school trying to sign him to an extension, but it’s unclear if they’ll be able to ward off any Power-5 conferences that may come calling.

Probable Starters:

(It’s also worth noting that all five of these guys average over 30 minutes per game, so you’ll see a lot of them.)

#1 Marcus Marshall (6’3” Guard, Senior): Marshall has continued to be outstanding on offense, shooting over 50% from two, 40% from three, and 80% from the free throw line. He’s also distributes the ball well and doesn’t turn it over much. He’s not great defensively, but when you average 23.6 points per game in conference play, that will get overlooked a little. If Nevada happens to win the regular season conference title, there’s a decent chance he’ll win the MW Player of the Year award, so keep an eye out for that.

#14 Lindsey Drew (6’4” Guard, Sophomore): Drew is still the guy who runs the offense, averaging 5.3 assists per game. He doesn’t take a ton of shots, but he’s pretty good when he does. He’s also a solid rebounder for his position, averaging almost 5 per game.

#15 DJ Fenner (6’6” Guard, Senior): Fenner has cooled down a little from three point range since we saw him last, dropping his average from 52% to 48%. So yeah, it’s still a good idea to guard him out there. He’s been averaging 17.8 points and 4.3 rebounds per game in conference play, so he’s probably on track for an all-league award as well.

#24 Jordan Caroline (6’7” Forward, Sophomore): I’m sure we’re all aware of Caroline after the game in the Pit, where he scored 45 points against the Lobos, including the game-winner. It may or may not come as a surprise that he didn’t score 45 points in their four game since. Combined. He’s a tough player who plays hard and rebounds well, he’s just not the main scorer for the Wolf Pack, in general. And the Lobos need to make sure he isn’t again.

#0 Cameron Oliver (6’8” Forward, Sophomore): Even though he’s been a little overshadowed by some of the other guys on his team, Oliver is still at the heart of what they like to do. He’s an athletic big who is comfortable playing offense down low or at the perimeter and he’s maybe the best shot-blocker in the conference. His Achilles’ heel is his free-throw shooting, which hovers around 65%. He might not be the first or even second option on the team right now, which is a tremendous luxury for the Wolf Pack to have.

Some Relevant Stats

(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)

In the plot above, we see that Nevada has a slightly better offense than the Lobos, thanks to their advantages behind the arc and taking care of the ball. They aren’t a particularly good free throw shooting team, although they do have a few guys who can shoot well from the line. Because of their ability shooting the three, I would expect to see them take a bunch of shots from there. How well the Lobos defend the perimeter will be worth keeping an eye on.

As we can see, Nevada’s defense rates out slightly better than the Lobos. They’re particularly good at keeping opponents off the free throw line, which could spell trouble for the Lobos, and defending the three. They aren’t particularly good at forcing turnovers and their interior defense isn’t great, so look for the Lobos to continue to have success in the pain.

Scattered Thoughts

• I’m going to set the over/under for mentions of the Lobos’ meltdown against the Wolf Pack a few weeks ago at 7.5. It’s getting ridiculous, to be honest, and I’m starting to think that I want to win this game just as much for the announcers to stop talking about it as I want them to move into first place.
• It’s really, really easy to play the “what-if” game right now about that game in the Pit, as you could imagine them winning that game, then beating UNLV the next time out, and now being 8-1 halfway through conference play. However, I think that it’s just as easy to think that the reason they are playing so well right now is simply because of how hard they fell on their face in that game. Because they hit that low, they’ve pulled together as a team and are not only more cohesive because of it, they’ve actually got a better shot of winning the conference now than they would have. We’ll obviously never know what would have happened if they had won that game, but all things considered, they’re in a good place right now.

Prediction

Having watched a bunch of Mountain West games the past few weeks, I do think that these are the two best teams in the conference. Nevada is playing pretty well and is at home, but the Lobos are tough on the road and are playing well themselves. This game feels like it could go either way, so being a homer, I’ll just default to the Lobos winning, 85-83.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (13-8, 6-3) vs Nevada Wolf Pack (17-4, 6-2)

When: Saturday, January 28, 2017 at 2pm MT

Where: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV

Watch: CBS Sports Network

Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB