After a four-game win streak, the Lobos managed to suffer three losses on Saturday at Nevada: the game itself, Dane Kuiper, and Tim Williams. Now, the banged-up Lobos will need to pull themselves together for their trip to Las Vegas, where they will be looking for revenge against UNLV.

A Little About UNLV

What they’ve done since last time:

Since the Rebels pulled off the 71-66 upset in the Pit a few weeks ago, they’ve only played four games, in which they went 1-3. They were beat pretty solidly at home by SDSU, but bounced back a few days later to beat Air Force in a close game. They then went on a two-game road swing, in which they lost a couple of heartbreakers against Wyoming and SJSU. They’re now 10-12 on the season and 3-6 in conference play, which puts them in a tie for last place with Utah State and San Jose State.

Coach:

Mick Cronin Chris Beard MARVIN MENZIES! After one of the weirdest, and most public coaching searches in recent memory, UNLV eventually found their man in the former NSMU head coach. He stepped onto campus and was greeted with fan apathy, an administration in turmoil, and a depleted roster. Because of that, he had to cobble a team together, leading to a squad with 12 newcomers. It’s not a huge surprise that the team is down this year, but he’ll be given some time to build his program.

Probable Starters:

#30 Jovan Mooring (6’2” Guard, Junior): Mooring is a JuCo transfer who worked his way into the starting lineup when these teams last played and has been there since. He has been the highest-usage player on the Rebels since conference play started, taking the most shots of anyone on the team. He will attack both within and behind the arc, although he’s more effective from deep, and will get to the line with regularity. He also has the highest assist rate in the conference and is leading his team with 4.6 assists per game in conference play. He had a big game against the Lobos last time, scoring 19 points, dishing out 6 assists, and collecting 5 steals.

#2 Uche Ofoegbu (6’4” Guard, Senior): Ofoegbu has started every game that he’s suited up for this season, making him only of the only mainstays in the starting lineup. He has shot extremely well in conference play, shooting 55.3% from two and 50% from three. Last time he played the Lobos, he scored 14 points, grabbed 8 boards, and collected 4 steals.

#10 Zion Morgan (6’5” Guard,  Freshman): Morgan made his first start of the season in the Rebels’ last game, replacing Jalem Poyser, who had started every game of the season up until that point. His minutes have been inconsistent this season, so it’s hard to grade his performane, but he seems to be comfortable shooting the ball or attacking the rim and he also has a decently high steal rate. Because of how inconsistent his minutes have been, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Poyser back in the starting lineup and Morgan playing just a handful of minutes. Who knows?

#20 Christian Jones (6’7” Forward, Senior): Jones has been a regularly in the starting lineup whenever he’s been healthy, which has been off and on this year. He’s seems to be 100% right now though, as he’s played at least 30 minutes in each of the past five games. He plays offense entirely in the perimeter, where he is shooting a decent 46.3% He’s a solid rebounder, particularly on defense, and he does a decent job of getting to the free throw line.

#11 Cheickna Dembele (6’11” Center, Freshman): Dembele is another guy who moved into the starting lineup against the Lobos and has stayed there since. He’s not a great scorer, averaging 4.7 points per game in conference play, but is a good rebounder and shot blocker. He’s pretty much their only size though, so if he gets into foul trouble, which is not uncommon, the Rebels are forced to play small.

Some Relevant Stats

(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)

UNM is clearly the better offensive team, only trailing UNLV in three point rate and steal percentage by any real margin. The Lobos are much better at getting and converting free throw opportunities and they’re better at two-point shooting as well. Generally speaking, UNLV is not a good shooting team, although they have a couple of threats on their roster

The Rebels are slightly better than the Lobos on defense, mostly thanks to how well they prevent teams from getting to the line or taking three pointers. They’re also pretty good at preventing offensive rebounds. However, they don’t block many shots or turn teams over much

Scattered Thoughts

• The injury bug has come back, and with a vengeance. Dane Kuiper has become the third Lobo to enter a 10-day concussion protocol after banging his head on the shoulder of a Nevada player on Saturday. To add to the injury, he also broke his nose, so he’ll be having to wear a mask for the rest of the season. I may or may not start referring to him as Deadshot at that point. He’ll likely miss at least the next two and probably three games, but should be good to go for the Boise State game in a couple of weeks.
  The worse news is that Tim Williams is now sidelined with a “stress reaction” in his foot (aka, a pre-fracture), and there’s no timetable for his return. I’m sure I don’t need to tell you how big of a loss that is for the team, but it’s a good thing for Tim’s career that a) they caught it before it became a fracture and b) they’re letting it heal. Based on my extensive research (read: Googling), it will probably take him 4-6 weeks to completely recover, which would put his return near the conference tournament. Hopefully he’ll be able to play in his senior night, at least.
  So where does that leave the team for the next few games? Well, in the post, we’re down to three healthy players in Obij Ajet, Connor MacDougall, and Joe Furstinger. Because of that, it wouldn’t surprise me if we start playing more four-guard lineups, as Obij and Joe don’t particularly complement each other well on offense and this team will need to get some scoring from somewhere. It also means that Sam will likely be a big key to the Lobos’ success over the next few weeks. If he can step back into an increased role and provide scoring from both forward positions, it will go a long way towards making up for both Dane and Tim’s absence. We’ll also see a lot more of Damien Jefferson, I would guess, which should be fun in its own right.
• Losing to Nevada on Saturday was a bummer, but it wasn’t unexpected. However, these next three games are must-wins in my opinion. UNLV, SJSU, and Air Force are probably the three worst teams in the league, so any losses to them are missteps. We already have one of those this year, so if the Lobos are going to have any shot at the regular season title, they probably can’t afford a second.

Prediction

Even though the Lobos lost the last time out against the Rebels, that felt like a letdown game. Now, this certainly has the potential to be another letdown game, especially with guys missing, but I still think they’ll come away with another road win, 75-70.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (13-9, 6-4) at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (10-12, 3-6)

When: Wednesday, February 1, 2017 at 9pm MT

Where: Thomas and Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

Watch: CBS Sports Network

Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB