The Lobos gutted out a win at UNLV on Wednesday, overcoming the absence of two starters thanks to some solid team play. They’ll have to do it again on Saturday, as both Tim and Dane are still out for this game against SJSU. Although they are towards the bottom of the conference, the Spartans aren’t pushovers, so the Lobos will still need to get good performances by the entire roster if they’re going to keep pace with the conference leaders.

A Little About SJSU

What they’ve done so far:

The Spartans played a relatively light non-conference schedule, but held their own in doing so, going 7-4 in that stretch. Things immediately got tougher once conference play started, as they had to go on the road to play Nevada for their conference opener and then turn around and host Colorado St. the next week. They’ve managed to pick up a nice win at home against Fresno St. and on the road against Air Force, but have struggled overall.

Coach:

Dave Wojick is now in his fourth season with the Spartans, where he’s gone 28-84. That’s obviously not great, but given where the program was when he came in, it makes some sense. The program is showing improvement, though, and they’re having their most successful season in years (their 10 wins is the fifth most in program history and the most since 2011). It would be a boon for the school and for the conference in general if they can become a contender in the conference at some point, so Wojick will probably be given another year or two to prove that he’s on the way there.

Probable Starters:

#0 Terrell Brown (6’2” Guard, Freshman): After a stretch of seeing limited minutes for a few weeks, Brown worked his way into the starting lineup in their last game and played fairly well. He’s more of a scorer than a distributer and is willing to take shots from deep or drive to the rim. He hasn’t been shooting particularly well from the field, but he gets to the free throw line fairly regularly. He can also get in foul trouble at times, so the Lobos may have success attacking him.

#21 Jalen James (6’4” Guard, Junior): James is the main distributor on the team, leading the Spartans with 2.7 assists per game. He is a little streaky on offense, having some games where he is the Spartans’ best offensive player and some games where he can’t buy a bucket. He is a very good free throw shooter, so when he is able to get to the line several times, he can really help his team out.

#25 Jaycee Hillsman (6’6” Forward, Junior): Hillsman has found himself in and out of the starting lineup this season, but looks to be back in right now (One of the reasons that the Spartans have already used 10 different starting lineups this season). He is most effective on offense inside the arc, especially when get can get to the free throw line, where he shoots 82.9%. He’s not a huge threat outside, but he’ll take a three every once in a while.

#15 Brandon Clarke (6’8” Forward, Sophomore): Clarke is probably the best player in the conference that no one knows about simply because of the team he plays for. He leads the Spartans with 18.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game and is shooting over 60% from the field. He’s not a great jump shooter, so that 60% is mostly due to how good he is close to the basket. Their offense pretty much revolves around him, so if the Lobos can shut him down, they’ll probably win easily.

#11 Ryan Welage (6’9” Forward, Sophomore): While Clarke is mostly a post-only player, Welage is a stretch four, as he’ll take pretty much the same amount of shots outside the arc as within. He is the team’s second-leading scorer, with 12.1 points per game, and is also their second-best rebounder. His scoring has dropped off in conference play, mostly due to a cold streak from deep. He’s still capable of going off, though.

Some Relevant Stats

(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)

SJSU clearly struggles on offense, as they’re not particularly good at shooting anywhere on the court and they’re not much of an offensive rebounding team. The areas where they are best have to do with avoiding steals, turnovers, and blocked shots.

The Spartans are much better on defense then they are on offense, however. They’re particularly good at preventing teams from shooting well, or even that often, from three point range. They also prevent teams from getting offensive rebounds pretty well and they block their fair share of shots. They are a little vulnerable close to the rim, which usually bodes well for the Lobos, but they usually have Tim Williams. There should be some opportunities there, though.

Scattered Thoughts

• Damien Jefferson had his coming out party against UNLV, celebrating his first career start with an impressive 13-9-4 line. From the beginning, he’s shown flashes of his offensive potential, with a nice jumper and the ability to get to the rim at will. Now that he’s looking more comfortable and playing more in control, he might be starting to realize that potential. That’s going to be scary for other teams, as he looks like he’ll have days where he’s practically unguardable. Between him, Jalen Harris, Jordan Hunter, and Dane Kuiper, the Lobos have a lot of young talent at the guard position, which is incredibly valuable in college basketball right now. Should be exciting to watch.
• I think it’s worth highlighting Elijah Brown, as he played one of his best games of the season on Wednesday, and not just because he scored a bunch of points. Despite the absence of Tim Williams, he didn’t try to do everything himself or generally force the issue. And he still dominated the game. He took good shots, drew fouls, distributed the ball, and rebounded well. All in all, he looked every bit of the conference player of the year that he was expected to be going into this season.
• The Lobos are currently half a game back of first and half a game ahead of fifth. It’s going to be a wild finish for the conference title, and maybe even a crazier tournament. As a fan of one of the teams involved, that’s super stressful. However, as a fan of basketball, it’s going to be a blast.

Prediction

Although the Lobos aren’t the same team without Tim and Dane, they should still win this one handily. If they impose their will on the Spartans like they’re capable of, this will be a double digit win. I’ll pick the Lobos to win 77-64.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (14-9, 7-4) vs San Jose St. Spartans (10-10, 3-6)

When: Saturday, February 4,2017 at 4Pm MT

Where: WisePies Arena AKA The PIT, Albuquerque New Mexico

Watch: ROOT Sports

Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB