After a shocking loss at home to SJSU, the Lobos now look to rebound on the road at Air Force, a place they haven’t won at since 2012. Strange things happen in Clune Arena, so be prepared for anything.
A Little About Air Force
What they’ve done so far:
The Falcons had a bit of a rough time in non-conference play, at least after they got past the cupcake portion of the schedule at the beginning. They won just two of their last eight games going into conference play, both at home. In fact, not that it applies to this game, they’ve yet to win a game on the road this season, going 0-9 away from Colorado Springs. That also means that they’re 10-4 at home this season, including a 3-2 record in conference play. They have already picked up nice wins against Utah St., Fresno St., and San Diego St. at home and still have shots at UNM, Nevada, UNLV, and Boise St down the road. They feel like a different team at home versus on the road, and unfortunately, the Lobos only get to see the good version of the Falcons this season.
Coach:
Dave Pilipovich is in his 5th season with the Falcons, having compiled a 70-86 record. His best season was his first, where he rode a senior-laden roster to a 18-14 record, including an 8-8 record in conference play. Since then, it’s been a bit of a rebuilding process, as the team hasn’t won more than 14 games in a season or more than 6 games in conference play. Air Force is difficult to recruit for and coach at, so he’ll probably be given a longer leash than most, but it’s worth noting that his predecessor, Jeff Reynolds, was fired after five sub-par seasons. Of course, in that case, it was also because he lost the team, so unless that happens to Pilipovich, I’d expect to see him back next year.
Probable Starters:
#15 Jacob Van (6’2” Guard, Junior): Van came out of nowhere last season to become a primary contributor for the Falcons, going from riding the pine in early February to dropping 37 points against UNLV in the conference tournament. His scoring has been a little inconsistent this year, but he’s still averaging 11.5 points per game on the season. He’s a very good three-point and free throw shooter, but he still seems to prefer attacking from within the arc.
#20 Trevor Lyons (6’3” Guard, Junior): Lyons might feel like he’s been around forever, but that’s because you are remembering his brother, Michael. Trevor isn’t quite the player his brother was, but there are some similarities to their games. For one, they both like to attack the rim and draw fouls, but are willing to take shots from the outside as well. They also are decent ball-distributors who limit turnovers and are good rebounders for their position. The biggest difference between them is their size, as Michael was at least a couple inches taller. That helped him finish better in the lane, allowing him to shoot 57% from two his senior year while Trevor has never shot better than 45% in his career.
#5 Zach Kocur (6’3” Guard, Senior): Kocur also feels like he’s been around forever, as he’s been in their starting lineup since midway through his sophomore year. He had a down year last season, but has returned to form this year. He’s an excellent three-points shooter, making 43.8% of his attempts this season, which may not be the 47% he shot as a sophomore, but it’s still really good. He takes about five three point attempts per game, so the Lobos will need to keep track of where he is on the perimeter at all times.
#35 Hayden Graham (6’5” Forward, Senior): Graham is a wing who likes to cut to the basket, but will hit the open three when it’s given to him. He’s probably the most impressive basketball player on this version of Air Force and is the guy they rely on to get them offense when their system isn’t working. He’s also the best rebounder on the team, averaging 5.6 boards to go along with his 11.9 points per game.
#33 Frank Toohey (6’7” Center, Junior): Like Van, Toohey made the jump from seldom-used bench player to starter midway through last season and has since become one of the Falcons’ primary sources of offense. He averages 11.9 points per game on 57.7% shooting from two and 40.5% shooting from three. He’s also a very good offensive rebounder and is effective at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, where he leads the team with 4.2 attempts per game. He can find himself in foul trouble occasionally, which is bad news for the Falcons, as they’re pretty thin in the post.
Some Relevant Stats
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
Air Force is an above-average offense, thanks to their excellent three-point shooting and solid ball movement. As might be expected based on the size of their team, they’re not nearly as productive down low, but they’re still dangerous as they’re constantly looking for backdoor layups. They also take good care of the ball, which is impressive given how much their offense relies on ball movement.
The Falcons aren’t as effective on the defensive end, however. Just like on the offensive end, they struggle close to the basket, allowing teams to shoot about 55% from two. On a related not, they don’t block many shots. However, they are very good at preventing offensive rebounds, which is extremely important for a team that plays as much zone as they do. Because of their zone defense, they do give up a lot of three point attempts, although teams only shoot an average percentage against them.
Scattered Thoughts
- One thing that Air Force does really well is luring their opponents into taking a bunch of threes. The Lobos certainly aren’t immune. In fact, since Noodles took over, the Lobos haven’t taken fewer than 21 threes in any game against the Falcons. Incidentally or not, the Lobos are 4-4 against them in that span. Because of their size, Air Force is vulnerable to teams who can attack them down low and even though Tim Williams is out, it’s probably a good idea for the Lobos to still try to do that.
- That game on Saturday was another ill-timed, semi-inexplicable loss. One thing that is going on right now, and was evident against SJSU, is that the offense is a jumble right now with Tim out. Guys were constantly having to be redirected to their positions, people didn’t move when they were supposed to, and generally they seemed lost. That confusion has led to a bunch of bad turnovers, leading to easy fast breaks (SJSU scored 23 points off only 14 turnovers!) That should get better as time goes on, especially with a full week of practice available after this game, but it’s been a worrying trend.
- Sam’s played pretty well the past couple of games after a pseudo-benching the two games previous. Having him and Dane playing well on the wings should help mitigate the injuries to both Tim and X, as they should both be able to provide length and athleticism in a four-guard lineup.
Prediction
Goodness, who knows? Clune is a really hard place to play at and the Lobos have struggled there recently, even with better teams. Plus, the loss Saturday certainly didn’t inspire confidence. However, I do think that the Lobos are a significantly better team in this matchup, especially with Dane Kuiper returning. It will be close and stressful, but I’ll pick the Lobos to win 71-68.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (14-10, 7-5) at Air Force Falcons (10-13, 3-7)
When: Wednesday, February 8, 2017 at 7pm MT
Where: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO
Watch: ROOT Sports
Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB