After a weekend off, the Lobos have a guest over for Valentine’s Day in the Boise State Broncos. Boise has been on a roll recently, which has put them in sole possession of first place. And although the Lobos can’t move back into first place with a win, a loss would likely put them out of the running.
A Little About Boise State
What they’ve done since last time:
After the Lobos picked up an 81-70 win out at Boise, the Broncos have been on a roll, winning five of their six games, including their last four. Their lone blemish was a 19-point loss at home against Nevada, which was a surprise mostly because of the margin. Other than that, they won at SJSU, Wyoming, and CSU while picking up wins at home against Utah St. and Air Force. This stretch has put them in sole possession of first place, half a game ahead of CSU, with six games remaining on their schedule.
Coach:
Leon Rice is back for his 7th season with the Broncos, where he’s gone 138-82. He’s led the Broncos to two NCAA Tournaments, most recently in 2015, and has hit the 20-win mark five times in the last six years. With his success has come plenty of offseason rumors linking him to other jobs, but he’s stuck around so far.
Probable Starters:
#55 James Reid (6’3” Guard, Senior): Reid, who replaced Paris Austin in the starting lineup a couple of weeks ago, is the Broncos’ resident sharpshooter, making 42.3% of his three point attempts while taking a lot of shots from behind the arc. He’s also an 88.4% shooter from the free throw line. He doesn’t rate out as a great defender, but his offense has been so effective that it more than makes up for any deficiencies on the other end of the court.
#3 Justinian Jessup (6’6” Guard, Freshman): Jessup is another guy to keep an eye on from the perimeter, making 37.8% of his threes on the season. As you might expect from a freshman, he’s been pretty inconsistent from game to game, where he’ll score in the double-digits some games and not score at all in others.
#15 Chandler Hutchison (6’7” Guard, Junior): Hutchison has been the Broncos’ best player in conference play, even making an argument for conference player of the year. He’s averaged 16.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.1 steals in conference play, all of which lead the team. He’s not a great free throw shooter, but he does get to the line regularly enough to be effective.
#13 Nick Duncan (6’8” Forward, Senior): Duncan is still the guy that you remember, in that he does most of his work from the perimeter. However, he’s been mired in a shooting slump in conference play, only making 27% of his three point attempts. That has limited his effectiveness, but he’s still a smart player who can affect the game in other ways. I still wouldn’t leave him open.
#33 David Wacker (6’10” Center, Sophomore): Wacker lost his starting job earlier in the season to Zach Haney, but returned to that role in their last game, thanks to a DNP by Haney. I don’t know what Haney’s status is for this game, so I’ll just assume that Wacker is starting again. He’s a big guy who finishes well around the rim, making 64% of his shots in the process. He tends to be the fourth or fifth option on offense, though, so despite the good shooting, he doesn’t score that many points. He is a solid rebounder and shot-blocker, although he can find himself in foul trouble on occasion. When everyone is healthy, that’s not too big of an issue, as the Broncos have a couple other guys who are pretty much interchangeable with him.
Some Relevant Stats
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
The two offenses rate out very similarly overall, with the Lobos being slightly better, but they do go about it differently. The Lobos like to get their points from the free throw line and down low while Boise takes a bunch of threes. What’s interesting about this particular Boise team is that they aren’t great at shooting threes, so they get their points there through volume, mostly. They don’t assist on a lot of their shots, which also kind of goes against what I think of when I think of the Boise St. offense. Still, even though it’s been different, it’s still been effective.
Boise St. rates out as the better defensive rating, mostly thanks to their three-point defense. They only allow teams to shoot 31% from behind the arc and they don’t allow teams to shoot many threes on top of that. Where they do struggle, and where the Lobos can take advantage, is that they put teams on the free throw line too often. In fact, this game will be an interesting contrast of styles, with the Lobos trying to take advantage of that Bronco weakness while Boise tries to shoot a bunch of threes.
Scattered Thoughts
- Obviously, having Tim out still is hard for the team, as he’s one of the best post players in the conference. However, I think that having Dane back is nearly as important. Not only does he spread the court with his shooting, he adds another athletic defender to the perimeter. That was evident at the end of the game against Air Force, where he helped force a turnover in a three-point game. Really, the defense as a whole just looks better with him out there.
- Elijah Brown had a second technical called on him at the Air Force game for attempting a dunk well after the play was over, which was thankfully rescinded after David Hall was talked out of it by the other refs (And because he missed it, apparently? The explanation was weird). Air Force was upset about it, as that’s pretty unusual to see and it could have given them a slim chance to tie the game rather than have the game go completely out of reach. Of course, if the technical hadn’t been called in the first place, I doubt there would have been any controversy at all.
In a completely unrelated note, I was watching Air Force play on Saturday and Zach Kocur lined-up, took, and made, a three a few seconds after a foul was called away from him. For whatever reason, no one seemed to think that it was an issue. - Coach Neal made mention in his press conference today that for the Lobos to get an at-large bid, they would have basically had to be perfect in their non-conference schedule because they couldn’t make up any missteps in conference play. I agree with him in that, which means that there are two possible solutions: 1) improve the non-conference schedule and/or 2) improve the conference. Neither option is easy to pull off, or even completely up to the Lobos, but I do think that the second one is what I would want to see. I posted an article yesterday about creating an elite basketball conference out of the Mountain West, which might seem impossible on the surface, but could be worth exploring. Anyway, if you haven’t checked that article out, please do.
Prediction
This is going to be another tough game for the Lobos and even though they beat Boise last time, they don’t have Tim Williams this time. And they’re at home, which is apparently a negative this year for some reason. However, the Lobos still do match up well against the Broncos, making me think that they’ll pull out a close win, 82-80.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (15-10, 8-5) vs Boise St. Broncos (16-7, 9-3)
When: Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 8PM MT
Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB