The Lobos are coming off a much-needed win against Boise State on Valentine’s Day to keep pace with the rest of the top of the conference. Now, they’ll need to do it again, and again, and again, and again, starting on the road against a reeling Fresno State team. We’re in the home stretch, which makes a strong finish seem both more real, and more necessary than ever.
A Little About Fresno State
What they’ve done since last time:
The Bulldogs opened their conference season with a loss at the Pit and have had some major highs and lows since. On one hand, they’re the only team in the conference who managed to beat Nevada twice (although Utah State could end up doing that as well), but that road win against the Wolf Pack is the Bulldogs’ only road win in conference play. They’ve been dealing with some injuries and suspensions recently, which helps explain why they’ve lost three of their last four, but at this point, they’re pretty much out of the conference regular season title race.
Coach:
Rodney Terry is in his 6th season at Fresno, compiling a 100-95 record overall, with his 100th win coming just a couple of days ago in the Bulldogs’ win against SJSU. He seemed to be on the hot seat the last couple of seasons, but a conference championship and a return trip to the NCAA Tournament has put that talk on hold. In fact, he recently was awarded a contract extension, making it seem as though Fresno is committed to him for the foreseeable future. After several seasons of consistent improvement, it looks like that streak will end this year, as his team already has more conference losses than they did last year. They still could end up being a dangerous team in the conference tournament though.
Probable Starters:
#5 Deshon Taylor (6’1” Guard, Sophomore): Taylor moved into the starting lineup about a month ago and has been the Bulldogs’ best offensive player this conference season, shooting high percentages from everywhere on the court and scoring a team-high 15.6 points per game. He has also been really effective at getting to the free throw line, taking almost 7 free throws per game. Also, as a rule of thumb, if the guy has “Taylor” on the back of his jersey, you shouldn’t let him open, as both Deshon and Jahmel are shooting around 40% from three in conference play. No one else is shooting above 25%.
#1 Jaron Hopkins (6’6” Guard, Junior): The Bulldogs’ offense still runs through Hopkins, as he has the highest usage rate on the team by a good margin. He does most of his damage on offense by driving to the rim and either converting or getting fouled, but also he’s been the best ball distributor on the team, picking up 3.5 assists per game in conference play. However, that’s also come with 3.1 turnovers per game. He doesn’t shoot a lot of threes, but he’ll take one or two occasionally to keep people honest.
#20 Sam Bittner (6’6” Forward, Sophomore): Bittner is a relatively recent addition to the starting lineup and, odds are, will be the odd man out if Terry decides to shuffle the lineup again. However, he has seen his minutes increase as the season has gone on, so we’ll probably still see plenty of him either way. He’s not much of a threat offensively, as he has the lowest usage rate on the team, although he’ll take the occasional three.
#3 Paul Watson (6’7” Forward, Senior): After having a solid non-conference season, Watson has had a rough time in conference play. That’s mostly attributable to an extended slump shooting the ball from three, as he went from a 46% three point shooter in non-conference games to a 23% shooter in conference games. He also went from an 83% free throw shooter to a 64% shooter. The rest of his numbers have stayed consistent, so it’s a little curious to see his shooting drop off like that. However, you know that player is still in there somewhere.
#11 Bryson Williams (6’8” Forward, Freshman): Williams is one of the handful of guys on the Bulldogs that you would consider a true post, as he does all of his work inside the arc. He’s shooting a respectable 58% from the field in conference play (which is actually lower than it was in non-conference games) and he’s probably the best rebounder on the team, especially on the offensive end. He does find himself in foul trouble regularly, which is one of the main reasons he doesn’t play more than he does.
Stat Comparison
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
As we can see in the plot above, the Lobos have better offense than the Bulldogs, mostly driven by their ball movement and their free throw shooting. In fact, Fresno is pretty bad at free throw shooting, overall, although they get to the line a lot. Expect to see a lot of fouls called in this one, in other words. The Bulldogs are slightly better shooting threes than the Lobos and avoid steals better too, but otherwise both teams are pretty even in most categories.
On defense, the Bulldogs look to be a little better than the Lobos, mostly thanks to the difference in three-point defense. They are notably worse at preventing teams from getting to the free throw line (and at fouling the right person), but are at least a little better than the Lobos in every other category. That weakness does happen to coincide with the Lobos’ strength, so it won’t be a surprise to see the Lobos at the charity stripe regularly.
Scattered Thoughts
- With the Lobos’ win against Boise St., they’re still very much right in the mix for the regular season championship, as they sit only a game behind the first-place CSU Rams. So, it’s time to figure out our rooting interests for the weekend. Here’s what I’m thinking (in order of importance):
Utah State over Nevada (at Nevada)
Wyoming over Boise St. (at Boise)
UNLV over SDSU (at SDSU)
Air Force over SJSU (at SJSU)
Yeah, that’s right. The best-case scenario is for all the road teams, and potentially all of them underdogs, to win this weekend. Weirder things have happened, I guess. - Serious question: How much longer should we expect announcers to stop mentioning the collapse against Nevada when the Lobos are leading in the second half? Just through the end of this year or will it take longer before that’s no longer a key talking point in their game notes? And should the Atlanta Falcons expect to receive the same treatment next year?
- Fresno State is pulling out all the stops for this game, in terms of student promotions. They’re giving away t-shirts, tacos, soda, an Apple Watch, and scholarship money in hopes of getting as big of a student crowd as possible for this game. On one hand, that feels a little desperate. On the other, maybe UNM should try something similar. I’m not sure the Kiss Cam is working anymore.
Prediction
I like the way the Lobos are playing right now, especially on the road. So, if they play to their potential, I think that they can win this game to finish the sweep of the Bulldogs, even without Tim Williams. However, I have a feeling that it will be another close one that will keep us on edge until the final buzzer sounds. I’ll guess the Lobos win 75-71.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (16-10, 9-5) vs. Fresno St. Bulldogs (15-11, 7-7)
When: Saturday, February 18, 2016 at 4pm MT
Where: Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: 770 AM/94.5 FM KKOB