With the tough loss at Fresno St., the Lobos are now 1.5 games back of the three teams tied for first in the conference, making their bid for a regular season conference title all the more difficult. It’s not impossible, though, but any reasonable path towards it has to start with a win against Colorado St. in the Pit. Last time these two teams faced each other, it got pretty heated, so this could end up being a wild, entertaining game.
A Little About Colorado State
What they’ve done since last time:
After the Lobos’ win up in Ft. Collins, it seemed assured that the then 3-2 Rams were going to fall off a cliff. After all, they were down to 7 scholarship players and had a lot of tough games ahead of them. Their next game only strengthened that idea, as they took a beating at the hands of Fresno State, losing by 21. Then, something clicked for the Rams and they’ve become one of the toughest teams in the conference, winning seven of their last eight to move into a tie for first place. So much for conventional wisdom.
Coach:
Everyone’s favorite Diet Coke addict, Larry Eustachy, is now in his 5th season with the Rams. He was just in the news recently when reports came out that some CSU officials had recommended his firing a few years ago due to his behavior towards his players, which really isn’t the type of news that you want to see go national. The response seemed to be a mix of shrugs from his supporters and outrage from his critics, both of which he has plenty. It’s unlikely that anything will come of it at this point, especially given that he’s signed to a contract through 2021 with a big buyout and the fact that his team is playing well, which tends to make people overlook a lot of things. I have a feeling that if they were 4-10 in the conference instead of 10-4, the reaction might have been a little different.
Probable Starters:
#11 Printiss Nixon (6’2” Guard, Sophomore): Nixon is still the third option for the Rams, averaging about 13 points on 11 shots per game in conference play. He hasn’t been shooting all that well from deep this season, making 33% of his attempts, but he is excellent at the free throw line, where he shoots 83%.
#22 JD Paige (6’3” Guard, Sophomore): For whatever reason, it turns out that Paige is a good bellwether for the Rams, in that when he plays well, they tend to win, and when he plays poorly, they tend to lose. When they win, he shoots 43.4% from the field, including 36.6% from three, and averages 10.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.7 turnovers per game. When they lose, he shoots 27.1% from the field, including 19.4% from three, and averages 6.4 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.7 steals, and 2.7 turnovers, worse numbers across the board. Other guys certainly see a drop-off in their production in losses, but Paige’s is pretty drastic.
#3 Gian Clavell (6’4” Guard, Senior): A big reason for why the Rams are on their current hot streak is because Clavell has gone supernova. In conference play, he is scoring 20.7 points per game, shooting 43.2% from deep (on a bunch of attempts), and grabbing 7.1 rebounds per game to top it off. He is also the Rams’ best defender on the perimeter, making him one of the more complete stars in the conference and a strong candidate for first-team all-MW.
#2 Emmanuel Omogbo (6’8” Forward, Senior): Omongbo is now best known to Lobo fans as the guy who got into a shouting match with one of our assistants after the game, but weirdly enough, he plays basketball too. And he’s pretty good at it, it turns out. Like Clavell, he’s been one of the main factors for why the Rams haven’t completely fallen apart, as he’s averaging 16.6 points and 11.0 boards per game in conference play. He’s a danger to score from anywhere, shooting 52.6% from three and 48.0% from two, and is a very good defender. Also like Clavell, you could make an argument for him to be first-team all-MW, although given the glut of options this year, he might have to settle for second-team.
#32 Nico Carvacho (6’11” Center, Sophomore): Carvacho is the only “true post” on the team, in that he never shoots threes, which is sort of what you’d expect out a guy his size. He’s not much of a scorer, although he does get into the double-digits occasionally, but he is an excellent offensive rebounder, picking up nearly half of his boards on that end of the court. He can find himself in foul trouble, though, which could be something for the Lobos to try to exploit, given CSU’s lack of depth.
Some Relevant Stats
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
The two teams rate out pretty evenly on offense, although the Lobos do have a slight edge. CSU is better at a few things, namely taking care of the ball, offensive rebounding, and shooting threes, but the Lobos make up for that with their two-point efficiency and their free throw shooting. We can also see that CSU has a low assist rate, which isn’t a surprise if you watch them play, as they have multiple guys who they’ll go iso with regularly. Also, it’s worth noting that CSU likes to play at a slow pace, which makes sense, as they only have seven scholarship players. The Lobos will likely try to make them run in hopes of tiring them out.
CSU looks to be the better defensive team, driven by the fact that they just don’t let their opponents shoot well from the field. That’s particularly true for three-pointers, where they allow the 14th-lowest percentage in the country. They also are good at preventing teams from taking a lot of free throws or from moving the ball around. In other words, on paper, their defense seems almost designed to frustrate the Lobos. Where the Rams do struggle a little is in forcing turnovers and giving up offensive rebounds.
Scattered Thoughts
- The game against Fresno State was one of the more frustrating games to watch this season simply because of how big the implications of the game were, how the game was imminently winnable, and how the Lobos just didn’t seize the opportunity. The Lobos played poorly overall, especially on offense, but still hung around in the game until the very end, when the Lobos missing desperation threes and FSU making free throws made the final score seem less close than the game really was. I mean, the Lobos had the ball down four with 3:30 left to play. The game was there for the taking.
There were a couple of surprises in the game that led to the Lobos loss. First, they weren’t able to get to the free throw line with nearly the regularity that I would have expected, given how much the Lobos like getting to the line and how much the Bulldogs like putting their opponents there. For a team that gets a huge chunk of its points from the charity stripe, whenever the Lobos allow the other team to shoot nearly twice as many free throws as them will almost always result in a loss. The second thing was how poorly the guys shot, particularly Elijah Brown and Dane Kuiper. They combined to go 1-9 from three, with the one make bouncing 20 feet in the air before it came back down through the net. They are arguably the two best three point shooters on the team, so I’m ready to chalk it up to an off night. Hopefully they’ll get back to normal against CSU. - With the loss against Fresno State, the Lobos will need a lot to happen to get a share of the conference regular season title. First off, they need to win out, otherwise the chances go from slim to none. Then, they need all three teams ahead of them – CSU, Nevada, and Boise State – to lose at least two games each, as they are all sitting at 10-4 right now. Here are each of their remaining four games:
CSU: at New Mexico, vs SDSU, vs Wyoming, at Nevada
Nevada: vs Boise St., at UNLV, at SJSU, vs CSU
Boise St: at Nevada, vs SJSU, vs Fresno St., at Air Force
It’s not hard to see CSU losing at least two games, as they clearly have the toughest schedule of the three remaining, but it’s a little more difficult to imagine both Nevada and Boise St. going 2-2 or worse. In other words, it’s definitely not impossible for the Lobos to still win the conference, but when a big part of the plan is for San Jose St. to pull off some upsets, you don’t feel great about the chances of it happening. - In reality, what might be more important for the Lobos is to hang on to one of the top five seeds in the conference tournament to avoid having to play four games instead of three. Right now, they sit in the fourth position, half a game ahead of SDSU and one game ahead of Fresno St. That means that if the Lobos win out, then they will be guaranteed a top-five seed, easy enough. However, they can’t afford too many slip-ups, otherwise they’ll be relying on other teams to lose as well, which isn’t a great position to be in.
(In conclusion, I believe that the best thing for the Lobos to do right now is to win their remaining games. The hottest of takes.) - In a weird quirk of the schedule, CSU had each of their byes right before playing the Lobos, giving them a full week to prepare each time. It didn’t help them last time (and as Geoff Grammer pointed out, the Lobos are 3-1 against teams coming off byes), but it’s odd nonetheless.
Prediction
The Lobos won the game up in Ft. Collins, but a lot has changed since then. On one side, the Lobos have been figuring out their identity without Tim Williams, which has had mixed results. On the other side, the Rams seem to have found their identity, which has made them one of the hottest teams in the conference. I think that this will be a close one, but my guess is that the Lobos, with their backs to the wall, find a way to win. I’ll pick them to win 73-70.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (16-11, 9-6) at Colorado St. Rams (18-9, 10-4)
When: Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 8pm MT
Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB