Men’s Basketball Seeding Possibilities

by Zach

The end of the regular season for the Lobos and the rest of the Mountain West basketball teams is coming up – after all, the conference tournament is starting in less than two weeks – and there isn’t a team locked into a seed line yet for the tournament. What happens over the next week and a half will decide every seed line and even the regular season champion, or co-champions. While the Lobos aren’t in the running for the regular season championship anymore, they have plenty to play for over the next week and a half. To get a better sense of that, we’re looking at all the possible scenarios that could play out, and how those scenarios affect each team in the conference. And in particular, in the very likely case that we’ll see some teams tied in the standings, who holds the tiebreakers?

Current Standings:

  • Nevada 11-4
  • CSU 11-4
  • BSU 10-5
  • FSU 9-7
  • UNM 9-7
  • SDSU 8-7
  • SJSU 7-8
  • WYO 6-9
  • USU 6-10
  • AFA 4-11
  • UNLV 3-12

Remaining Schedules:

  • Nevada: @UNLV, @SJSU, CSU
  • CSU: SDSU, WYO, @Nevada
  • BSU: SJSU, FSU, @AFA
  • FSU: @BSU, UNLV
  • UNM: @WYO, SDSU
  • SDSU: @CSU, AFA, @UNM
  • SJSU: @BSU, Nevada, @WYO
  • WYO: UNM, @CSU, SJSU
  • USU: AFA, @UNLV
  • AFA: @USU, @SDSU, BSU
  • UNLV: Nevada, USU, @FSU

Games of Note:

  1. Nevada vs. CSU (March 4): There is a good chance that this game will end up determining the regular season champion. Beyond that, since this the only meeting between the two teams, the winner would hold the tie breaker if there is a tie.
  2. UNM vs. SDSU (March 4): This could be a game that decides who gets a first-round bye and who has to win four games in four days to win the conference tournament.
  3. CSU vs. SDSU (February 25): This game will have an impact on the top 6 teams, and could change a few scenarios for teams.
  4. BSU vs. FSU (February 28): A win here for FSU would almost lock them in a top-5 seed, while BSU needs to go 3-0 to have a shot to win the Title.
  5. WYO vs. SJSU (March 4): This game will be lower in the priority on the last day of the regular season, but it could end up deciding the 7-9 seeds.

Seeding Tiers:

  • 1-3: The top 3 seeds in the Tournament are going to be Nevada, CSU and BSU.
  • 4-6: This group of 3 will most likely be FSU, UNM and SDSU. Two of them will play each other in the second round of the tournament, so the seeding there will mostly determine what color jerseys are worn, while the remaining team will have to face the 11 seed in the first round.
  • 7-9: This group of 3 will probably be SJSU, WYO and USU, where the top seed of the three would get to be on the other side of the bracket from the top seed. Depending on how things shake out, that may or may not seem like a positive.
  • 10-11: AFA and UNLV will likely be the bottom two seeds, unless either team gets uncharacteristically hot over the next week and a half.

Lobo Outcomes:

Good:

  • If Lobos go 2-0, they will either be the 4 or 5 seed and get the first-round bye. Easy enough.
  • In fact, if the Lobos just beat SDSU, they will either be the 4 or 5 seed and get the first-round bye, unless SJSU wins out.
  • If the Lobos beat Wyoming, lose to SDSU, and either BSU or CSU wins the regular season title, the Lobos should be in a good position, as they’ll hold some important tiebreakers.

Bad:

  • If the Lobos go 0-2, they won’t be a top-5 seed, unless some crazy outcomes happen otherwise, and they must play in the first-round.
  • If Lobos beat Wyoming, lose to SDSU, and Nevada wins the title, they’ll probably need SDSU and FSU to lose some of their remaining games as well to avoid the first round.

Seeding Possibilities:

  1. Nevada or CSU: The winner of the regular season finale between Nevada and CSU will have the inside track for the 1 seed, as they’re tied right now and that is the only game between them. Nevada is in a really good position right now, as not only do they have an easier remaining schedule than CSU, they hold the tiebreaker against BSU. Plus, that game against CSU is at home. BSU could leapfrog them if they win out, Nevada loses to CSU and someone else, AND if CSU loses to either Wyoming or SDSU.
  2. Nevada, CSU or BSU: If there is a three-way tie, BSU will end up in this spot, as they’ll be 2-2 against the combination of CSU and Nevada, while Nevada would finish higher and CSU would finish lower. BSU also holds the head-to-head tiebreaker against CSU, but not against Nevada.
  3. Nevada, CSU or BSU: Again, if there’s a three-way tie, this will be CSU, but there are plenty of scenarios for BSU to end up here as well. Although it can happen, it would be a bit of a surprise for Nevada to slip to this spot.
  4. FSU or UNM: It will be one of these two teams unless both teams go 0-2 and SDSU goes 3-0, which would give the Aztecs the 4 seed. If the teams end up in a tie, whoever ends up in first place in the conference will probably determine which team gets to wear their home jerseys in the tournament.
  5. FSU, UNM or SDSU: Again, the most likely between FSU and UNM, but the odds for SDSU do go up for this seeding. They need several breaks to get a first-round bye, though.
  6. UNM or SDSU: If the Lobos lose to Wyoming and SDSU goes at least 1-1, the winner of the March 4th game would have the first round bye. If the Lobos win at Wyoming and SDSU goes 0-2, the Lobos would already have a top-5 seed locked up.
  7. SJSU, WYO or USU: These three teams will probably end up with the 7-9 seeds. Although SJSU has the best record right now, they probably have the toughest schedule remaining and, if they lose to Wyoming, won’t hold any tiebreakers over either team. They’ll need a strong finish to end up here.
  8. SJSU, WYO or USU: Wyoming has the tiebreaker against SJSU, but unless they manage to beat CSU, and CSU finishes ahead of Nevada, they won’t have the tiebreaker against USU, head-to-head. In fact, thanks to their win against Nevada, USU is in a really good spot among this group, tiebreaker-wise.
  9. SJSU, WYO or USU: Weirdly enough, even though they are ahead of the other two, it wouldn’t be a shock to see SJSU in this spot, thanks to their weak tiebreakers against the other two teams. In fact, any order of these three teams wouldn’t be surprising. What would be surprising is if either SJSU wins out and moves up a tier or one of Air Force or UNLV wins out and steals the 9-seed.
  10. AFA or UNLV: The Falcons have the inside track on the 10 seed right now, although UNLV might have a slightly easier remaining schedule. The tiebreaker could end up coming down to which of the two ends up with a win against a higher seed
  11. AFA or UNLV: There is a very real chance that the host, UNLV, will end up with the 11 seed in the tournament, having to play either FSU, UNM, or SDSU in their first game.