With the loss at home against Colorado St., the Lobos now have lost two in a row and eliminated themselves from a top-three seed in the conference tournament. However, there’s still plenty for the Lobos to play for, as a first-round bye is still very much in reach and if they’re playing well, anything can happen in Vegas. They’ll look to get back on track up at Wyoming, facing a Cowboys squad looking for a strong finish of their own.

A Little About Wyoming

What they’ve done since last time:

After the Lobos’ 78-71 victory in the Pit, the Cowboys have struggled a bit, going 3-5 over that stretch. That pushed them down to a 6-9 record, effectively eliminating them from a potential first-round bye in the conference tournament. However, in their past five games, they won a game at Air Force, beat Fresno State at home in FOUR overtimes, and played Colorado St. and Boise St. tough in consecutive games. Especially given the way they play, with a high reliance on threes, they’re capable of beating anyone in the conference, so a strong finish to their season might give them the confidence necessary to make at least a little run in the tournament.

Coach:

With Larry Shyatt stepping down in the offseason, Wyoming promoted Allen Edwards to the top spot. Edwards had spent the previous five seasons as an assistant coach for Shyatt, so most people figured that he would carry on the grinding style of play that the Cowboys became known for. Nope! They went from being one of the slowest tempo teams in the country to one of the fastest, making their games almost unrecognizable. Edwards has bounced around a lot of places, from Kentucky to VCU to Western Kentucky, so he’s clearly got his own style built from a wide variety of experiences. Time will tell if his style will work in Laramie, but early returns seem positive, even if conference play didn’t go as well as it looked like it might at one point.

Probable Starters:

#11 Jeremy Lieberman (6’1” Guard, Junior): After a really rough non-conference season, Lieberman has picked it up in conference play, shooting 65.6% from two and 39.4% from three in those games. He doesn’t rebound much or get to the free throw line often, but if he keeps his shooting up, I doubt Wyoming cares.

#24 Lewis Adams (6’4” Guard, Junior): Adams has been a starter off and on this season, but it looks like it’s one of those “on” periods right now. He spends most of his time driving towards the basket in hopes of either finishing at the rim or getting fouled, which has been an effective strategy for him. He shoots a lot of free throws when he’s in the game and makes them at a 78% clip. To keep teams honest, he’ll shoot the occasional three, making 37% of his attempts from out there.

#23 Jason McManamen (6’5” Guard, Senior): McManamen plays the most for the Cowboys, averaging almost 34 minutes per game. That combined with his style of play has led him to shooting over 200 threes so far this season. Unfortunately for him, and the team, he’s only making 31.5% of those attempts, a number that has dropped down to 27% in conference play. Still, he’s fully capable of getting hot occasionally, like he did against Fresno State a few weeks ago, when he scored 30 points on 7-13 shooting from deep.

#5 Alan Herndon (6’9” Forward, Junior): Herndon also plays a bunch for the Cowboys, likely because he’s one of their best interior defenders and rebounders. However, he’s still dangerous on offense, capable of scoring either down low or from range. He’ll actually take a similar number of shots from two and from three, so him playing on the perimeter is not for show.

#33 Jordan Naughton (6’10” Center, Sophomore): Naughton is the Cowboys’ “true big” in the rotation, although he’s seen his numbers start to dwindle recently, as the Cowboys have opted to play either Hayden Dalton with Herndon or a four-guard lineup more regularly. When Naughton is in, he’s not a threat to score from deep, but he’s pretty effective down low, making 54.2% of his shots. He’s also probably the best offensive rebounder in the rotation, but that might just be because he’s the only one who doesn’t hang out on the perimeter.

Some Relevant Stats

(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)

Wyoming has focused mainly on three things this season: playing fast, taking a bunch of threes, and getting to the free throw line. However, because they haven’t been shooting well, that strategy hasn’t worked out particularly well, leaving the Cowboys as a below-average offensive team overall. They’re also not a strong offensive rebounding team, which is nice, as the Lobos have been struggling with that recently.

Wyoming is the better defensive team, thanks to their ability to prevent opponents from shooting a high percentage. They’re also good at blocking shots and preventing offensive rebounds. They don’t force many turnovers, though, so hopefully the Lobos can prevent points off of turnovers in this one, something they have been struggling at recently.

Scattered Thoughts

• It’s not a huge surprise that the Lobos lost to CSU, as they’re playing as well as anyone in the conference and the Lobos are still hobbled, but it was a bummer to see. After all, that loss removed any chance of the Lobos taking a top-3 seed in the conference and put them in danger of missing out on a first-round bye entirely. However, there are still some positives to take away from that game. One big takeaway was that the Lobo defense looked pretty solid for the majority of the game, forcing CSU to take tough shots and only allowing them to shoot 27% from three. Clavell might have scored 24 points, but he had to take 21 shots to get there, so it wasn’t exactly like he was setting the nets on fire. Dane Kuiper deserves a lot of credit for making Clavell work so hard and Sam Logwood did similar work on Omogbo. If those guys can play defense like that the rest of the season, the Lobos will have a shot in the rest of their games, even if Tim Williams can’t return. The offense is still a work in progress, especially when they’re having difficulty getting to the free throw line, so if they can get that worked out (i.e., have a healthy Tim Williams return to the lineup), they still have a shot in Vegas.
• In case you missed it, I.B. Luc wrote up an overview of a bunch of the potential ways the seeding for the conference tournament can turn out. Check it out here, if you haven’t already.
• Say what you want about Wise Pies Arena AKA The Pit, but I still think that Arena-Auditorium is a dumber name.

Prediction

The Lobos have a lot to play for in this one and I’m sure they know it, which gives me some confidence in this one. Plus, I think that the Lobos are still the better team and that they match up well with the Cowboys. And, they’re on the road, which seems to be a positive this season. So, I’ll pick them to win 82-79.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (16-12, 9-7) at Wyoming Cowboys (16-12, 6-9)

When: Saturday, February 25, 2017 at 4PM MT

Where: Arena-Auditorium, Laramie, WY

Watch: CBS Sports Network

Listen: 770/94.5 KKOB