It all comes down to this, as we all expected. UNM vs. San Diego St. playing in the final game of the season with a lot on the line for both teams. Of course, when we were imagining this scenario before the season started, we figured that it would be for the conference championship, but that’s clearly not the case. Instead, the teams are fighting for the all-important fifth seed in the conference, which would allow the winner to avoid having to win four games in four days to win the conference tourney next week. That might not be a conference championship, but you know that both teams really want that seed at this point. Hopefully the Pit is rocking tonight.
A Little About San Diego St.
What they’ve done since last time:
Well, given that the last time these two teams faced each other, it was the Aztecs’ first conference game, they’ve played quite a few games. They’ve been a little streaky, starting off conference play losing three in a row, then winning three in a row, then losing two in a row, ect., and because of that, they’re in real danger of having to play in a Wednesday game. In fact, they’ve already secured their worst conference finish since 2005. However, because the conference tournament is likely to be chaotic, they should still be in the conversation for potential champions.
Coach:
Steve Fisher is synonymous with SDSU basketball at this point, having coached the Aztec for almost two decades. He’s compiled a 384-207 record during his tenure at SDSU and a 568-289 record overall. He’s also made it to 8 NCAA Tournaments with the Aztecs, which is particularly impressive if you can remember where the program was 20 years ago. At 71 years old, he’s been subject to retirement rumors for a while, but keeps signing contract extensions, so who knows how much longer he’ll be around. When he finally does leave, it’s going to be a tough loss for his school, and for the Mountain West conference as a whole.
Probable Starters:
#42 Jeremy Hemsley (6’3” Guard, Sophomore): After a great non-conference season, Hemsley has really cooled off in conference play. He shot 55.3% from deep before MW play started, but has shot literally half that since, making only 26.8% of his threes. He has been slightly more effective at shooting twos, but one has to think that the Aztecs would trade any modest improvement there for a return to form from deep.
#3 Trey Kell (6’4” Guard, Junior): Kell also hasn’t been shooting well from deep this season, only making 26.2% of his attempts for the whole season. Despite that, he’s still be the team’s leading scorer in conference play, partially thanks to his high usage rate and partially thanks to his ability to get to the free throw line. He’s also the teams’ leading assist man and provides about five boards a game, so he’s still producing for the Aztecs overall.
#4 Dakarai Allen (6’5” Guard, Senior): Allen is probably the Aztecs’ best perimeter defender, but since conference play started, he’s also been their most effective offensive weapon. He’s a pretty good three-point shooter, making 36% of his attempts in conference play, but he’s been excellent from two, making 64% of his attempts from close to the basket. I doubt I would have put money on him being the best two-way player for the Aztecs in conference play, but as it stands, he’s probably most deserving of a spot on an all-conference team.
#14 Zylan Cheatham (6’9” Forward, Sophomore): Cheatham has had a slightly disappointing season, partially due to some nagging injuries that caused him to miss a couple of games. Still, he’s been the Aztecs’ best rebounder, particularly on the offensive end, and can be a menace defensively. If and when he gets back to full strength, the Aztecs will be a more dynamic team as a whole.
#21 Malik Pope (6’10” Forward, Junior): Pope has been playing well of late, scoring in double-digits in 8 of their last 10 games. On offense, he doesn’t take a ton of threes, but he’s pretty effective when he does. He’s also been a solid rebounder and is a very good shot-blocker. Like Cheatham, he’s struggled with injuries this season, but the Aztecs are a better team when he’s available.
Stat Comparison
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
Last time these two teams faced each other, they had nearly identical offensive efficiencies. The Lobos have stayed pretty much the same, but as we can see, the Aztecs have dropped back a bit. That can mostly be blamed on their poor shooting, as they’re bad both behind the arc and within it. They still take a bunch of threes, which is strange to see out of an Aztec team, but they’re only shooting 31.5% from out there.
As we might expect, the Aztecs are still a good defensive team. They aren’t a team that turns over their opponents a bunch, which is part of the reason why their offense has been struggling, but they’re really effective at preventing their opponents from getting good looks. In fact, they allow the 12th best effective field goal percentage in the country, so don’t be shocked if the Lobos have another tough shooting night. They are a little vulnerable to offensive rebounds, so hopefully the Lobos can take advantage of that.
Scattered Thoughts
- Tim Williams is (probably, hopefully) back for this game, and it couldn’t come at a better time. It’s been rough having him out – after all, he’s probably the most valuable and irreplaceable player on the team – but if he can make a difference in this game and be full speed next week, the Lobos have as good of a shot as anyone to win the conference title. Plus, it’s his senior night, and I’d love to see him go out with a bang.
- I think that in some years, getting the sixth seed might actually be preferable to the fifth seed as you a) face the worst team in the conference and b) end up on the other side of the bracket from the top seed. This year, neither thing seems true. For one, you’ll probably end up playing the home team in the first round, which is never easy. Then, it’s hard to tell who really is best team in the conference, so who knows which side of the bracket is easier to be on? Just a weird year in the conference, as a whole.
Prediction
Both teams are desperate for a win, both teams have had disappointing seasons, and both teams would love to win this rivalry game. It’s probably going to be close and, given the way the Aztecs play these days, probably an ugly game of basketball. I’ll pick the Lobos to pull out a 60-55 win, giving them an extra day off next week.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (16-13, 9-8) vs. San Diego St. Aztecs (17-12, 9-8)
When: Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 8pm MT
Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Listen: 770 AM/94.5 FM KKOB