After several months of buildup, we’ve finally made it to March, and with it comes the Mountain West Conference Tournament. This year seems like it could be especially chaotic, as there are no prohibitive favorites and every single team needs to win the conference tournament to assure themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament. With so much on the line, and so much parity, expect a lot of close games, a lot of emotion, and a lot of heartbreak. Today, we’ll be previewing the first round of games, featuring the 6-11 seeds in the tournament, and will continue our previews throughout the week.
ALSO: If you haven’t already, you should fill out your picks for the tournament! We’re interested in how everyone thinks things will turn out.
Game 1: #8 Utah State vs. #9 San Jose State
Although the Aggies and the Spartans ended up with the same record, they ended the season on different trajectories. The Aggies were in danger of dropping down to the 10 seed until they won two of their last three to jump up to the 8 seed. The Spartans, on the other hand, were in the hunt for a first-round bye before they dropped five of their last 6, going from 6-6 to 7-11 in the process.
These two teams played each other once this season, just a couple of weeks ago, actually. The Aggies won at SJSU by an 81-75 margin, maintaining a lead the whole time. That win gave them the tiebreaker, which in this case, mostly means that they get to wear their home jersey.
Stat Comparison
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
Key Players
Utah State: Jalen Moore (SR Forward, 16.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.6 apg); Koby McEwen (FR Guard, 14.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.0 apg); Sam Merrill (FR Guard, 9.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg)
San Jose St.: Brandon Clarke (SO Forward, 17.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.2 apg); Ryan Welage (SO Forward, 13.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.1 apg); Terrell Brown (FR Guard, 7.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.6 apg)
Prediction
I like Utah State in this game, although it’s easy to envision SJSU winning if they’re making threes. However, I think that the overall talent and experience favors the Aggies, so I’ll pick them to win an 82-75 game.
Game Info
Who: #8 Utah St. (14-16, 7-11) vs. #9 San Jose State (14-15, 7-11)
When: Wednesday, March 8, 2017 at 12pm MT
Watch: Mountain West Network (Stream Only)
Game 2: #7 Wyoming vs. #10 Air Force
After a strong out-of-conference performance, Wyoming became somewhat of a sleeper pick in the conference to earn a top seed in the tournament. However, they proved to be a middle-of-the-road MW team, going 8-10, with 6 of their 8 wins coming against the four teams that finished behind them. Still, given what expectations were coming into the season, a seventh-place finish is commendable.
Air Force, on the other hand, was pretty much what everyone expected: a team fighting to stay out of last place. They only managed four wins in conference play, all of which came in the friendly confines of Clune Arena. Thanks to their three-point shooting, they have the potential to pull out an upset win against anyone, though, making them a team that no one will want to see in this tournament.
In the two times they played each other, Wyoming came out on top with nearly identical scores: 84-72 at Wyoming and 83-74 at Air Force.
Stat Comparison
Key Players
Wyoming: Justin James (SO Guard, 15.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.0 apg); Hayden Dalton (JR Forward, 12.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.6 apg); Jason McManamen (SR Guard, 11.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.5 apg)
Air Force: Hayden Graham (SR Forward, 12.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.0 apg); Frank Toohey (JR Center, 10.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.5 apg); Zach Kocur (SR Guard, 10.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Prediction
Air Force’s best chance is to slow it down, as they aren’t nearly as comfortable playing a quick tempo as Wyoming is. However, even if that happens, it’s still hard to see them pull out a victory unless they go crazy from deep. I’ll take the Cowboys in a 82-75 win.
Game Info
Who: #7 Wyoming (18-13, 8-10) vs. #10 Air Force (11-20, 4-14)
When: Wednesday, March 8, 2017 at 2:30pm MT
Watch: Mountain West Network (Stream Only)
Game 3: #6 San Diego St. vs. #11 UNLV
In some years, this would be a potential championship matchup, not the 6-11 game. But, here we are. Of the two, SDSU had the truly disappointing season, as they went from a team expecting to win the conference regular season to a team trying to claw their way to a first-round bye. They still believe that they have a shot at winning the tournament, but they can’t be thrilled about having to win four games to do it.
UNLV was a mess this year, which wasn’t a surprise given how much of a mess their offseason was. They basically replaced their entire coaching staff, turned over their entire roster, and filled holes with stopgaps. It added up to a 4-14 record and a last place finish in conference play. They were better at home on the road, which will probably give their opponents some worry, but were clearly one of the worst teams in the conference. They do play hard, though, so don’t expect them to go down without a fight.
In their two games against each other, SDSU came out on top both time, winning at San Diego 77-64 and at Las Vegas 64-51. If the Rebels have any hope, it’s because they kept the game close for the first 30 minutes before falling behind at the end. If they can replicate that performance, they could maybe give the hometown fans something to cheer about.
Stat Comparison
Key Players
San Diego St.: Trey Kell (JR Guard, 13.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.8 apg); Dakarai Allen (SR Guard, 8.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg); Jeremy Hemsley (SO Guard, 13.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.1 apg)
UNLV: Jovan Mooring (JR Guard, 16.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.6 apg); Tyrell Green (SR Forward, 14.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.0 apg); Christian Jones (SR Forward, 9.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg)
Prediction
SDSU may have underperformed this season, but they’re still the better team in this matchup by a wide margin. I expect this to be a sloppy game (an Aztec specialty), with SDSU coming out on top 67-53.
Game Info
Who: #6 San Diego St. (17-13, 9-9) vs. #11 UNLV (11-20, 4-14)
When: Wednesday, March 8, 2017 at 5pm MT
Watch: Mountain West Network (Stream Only)