The first day of the MW Men’s Basketball Championship is behind us, with a couple of teams advancing with blowouts and another team needing a comeback and overtime to survive. That takes us to the quarterfinals, where the top five seeds get their first taste of the action. Again, each of these teams likely need to win the tournament to go dancing, so you better believe that emotions will be riding high.
Game 4: #1 Nevada vs. #8 Utah State
The Aggies downed San Jose St. with a huge second half, dropping 59 points in those 20 minutes to turn a game that was tied at halftime into a blowout. Kobe McEwen and Jalen Moore had big games, as you’d expect to see in a Utah St. win, and the team shot 56% from the field overall. Just as impressive was their defense, as they held the Spartans to only 64 points in a fast-paced game.
They’ll need to play just as well to have a chance against the top-seeded Nevada, who earned that spot with their 14-4 record over league play. They’re certainly the favorite in this tournament and, if they win a couple of games, are the only team with any sort of shot to make the NCAA Tournament without winning the tournament. Odds are, they’ll still have to win the tournament, though.
In each of their two games this season, the home team pulled out a comfortable win, with the Aggies winning 74-57 in Logan while the Wolf Pack won 77-66 in Reno. So, with the season-series split, it’s fitting that they’ll get one more shot at each other on a neutral court.
Stat Comparison
(To read the plots, the further away from the center, the better the team is at each stat. That is, for each stat, the best team will have a value on the outside of the radar plot while the worst team will have a value on the very inside of the plot. For an explanation of the stats, click here. All stats taken from kenpom.com)
Key Players
Nevada: Marcus Marshall (SR Guard, 19.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.6 apg); Cameron Oliver (SO Forward, 15.7 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.9 apg); Jordan Caroline (SO Forward, 14.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Utah State: Jalen Moore (SR Forward, 16.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.6 apg); Koby McEwen (FR Guard, 14.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.0 apg); Sam Merrill (FR Guard, 9.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg)
Prediction
Nevada has to be the favorite in this game, but one has to think that they would have much rather seen SJSU. If the Aggies score like they did on Wednesday, they could pull out the upset, but I’ll pick Nevada to win 79-73. I’m not alone in that thought, as in our bracket challenge that some Lobo fans filled out, 100% of the responders selected the Wolf Pack to move on to the semifinals.
Game Info
Who: #1 Nevada (25-6, 14-4) vs. #8 Utah St. (15-16, 8-11)
When: Thursday, March 9, 2017 at 1pm MT
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Game 5: #4 Fresno State vs. #5 New Mexico
After looking pretty much dead in the water, the Bulldogs managed to rip off five straight wins to close out conference play to move from 6-7 to 11-7. That run managed to not just give them a first-round bye, it almost put them in position to steal the 3rd seed on the last day of the season. Last year, they rode a 6-game win streak into the tournament and ended up winning the whole thing, so they’re hoping history can repeat itself.
The Lobos, on the other hand, had to weather a month-long injury to a potential first-team all-conference player, Tim Williams, just to avoid the first round. They did just enough to hang on to the five seed, which ultimately was the goal. They’re now close to being at full strength (although they would love to have their sixth man, Xavier Adams back), which once again makes them a dangerous team capable of beating anyone.
These teams split their season series, with the home team winning each time. The Lobos pulled out a 78-73 win to open conference play, while the Bulldogs won their home game 71-61 just a few weeks ago. Both teams can probably point to injuries as to why they lost the game that they did, so this game should settle matters once and for all.
Stat Comparison
Key Players
Fresno State: Jamel Taylor (JR Guard, 11.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.9 apg); Jaron Hopkins (JR Guard, 13.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.5 apg); Deshon Taylor (SO Guard, 11.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.1 apg)
New Mexico: Elijah Brown (JR Guard, 18.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.1 apg); Tim Williams (SR Forward, 17.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.5 apg); Sam Logwood (JR Forward, 7.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Prediction
Whoever wins this game might come down to which team shoots more free throws, as the winning team shot over 30 attempts in each of their two matchups thus far. With Tim Williams back, I like to think that favors the Lobos, as not only is he effective at drawing fouls, he makes Elijah Brown more effective in that regard as well. I’ll pick the Lobos to win 75-71, thanks to the power of Pit West. Lobo fans are just as optimistic as me, with 100% of the respondents picking the Lobos to move on.
Game Info
Who: #4 Fresno St. (19-11, 11-7) vs. #5 New Mexico (17-13, 10-8)
When: Thursday, March 9, 2017 at 3:30pm MT
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Game 6: #2 Colorado State vs. #10 Air Force
Colorado State had one of the most impressive conference runs this season, as they managed to be in contention for a title up until their final game of the year and they did so with only 7 scholarship players. For their efforts, Gian Clavell earned player of the year awards and Larry Eustachy was selected coach of the year. One has to wonder if they’ll be able to win three games in three days with such a small roster, but they seem to relish proving people wrong.
Air Force was the biggest surprise in the first round, as they jumped out to a 25-0 lead against Wyoming and never looked back, finishing off the Cowboys 83-68. They did this partially with a strong offensive performance, particularly in the first half, but their defense was solid as well, forcing 20 turnovers out of Wyoming. They’ll need a complete performance again if they’re going to move on any further in the tournament.
These two teams only played each other once this season, with the Rams winning in dominating fashion at home, 85-58. Of course, that was over two months ago, so who knows how relevant that result is anymore.
Stat Comparison
Key Players
Wyoming: Gian Clavell (SR Guard, 15.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.0 apg); Emmanuel Omogbo (SR Forward, 12.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.6 apg); Printiss Nixon (SO Guard, 11.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.5 apg)
Air Force: Hayden Graham (SR Forward, 12.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.0 apg); Frank Toohey (JR Center, 10.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.5 apg); Zach Kocur (SR Guard, 10.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Prediction
I have a hard time seeing Air Force win this game, as CSU is playing as well as anyone in the conference and, quite frankly, is just a better team. I think that the Rams will move on comfortably, 82-65. Most Lobo fans seem to agree with me, as all but one person chose the Rams to move on. That other person picked Wyoming.
Game Info
Who: #2 Colorado St. (21-10, 13-5) vs. #10 Air Force (12-20, 5-14)
When: Thursday, March 9, 2017 at 7pm MT
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Game 7: #3 Boise State vs. #6 San Diego State
Boise State kind of flew under the radar as a top team this season, as most of the focus seemed to be on Nevada and CSU. Despite that, the Broncos managed a solid 12-6 record in conference play to finish in the third seed. One thing that has to give them confidence is that they didn’t lose to any of the teams on their side of the bracket this season. In fact, all of their losses in conference play came against Nevada, Fresno St., and UNM. So, if they make it to the finals, they’d probably like to see Utah St.
SDSU managed to survive their game on Wednesday against UNLV, clawing back from a large halftime lead to force overtime, then outscoring the Rebels 12-2 in the extra time to pull out the win, 62-52. On one hand, a win is a win, but on the other, that’s not an encouraging start for the Aztecs. They’ll need to regain their composure if they’re going to have any chance against Boise St.
These two teams only played each other once, with Boise St. picking up a 78-66 win at home early in the year. That was one of the Aztecs’ worst defensive performances of the season, so it wouldn’t be a shock if this game ends up being lower-scoring.
Stat Comparison
Key Players
Boise St.: Chandler Hutchison (JR Guard, 17.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.8 apg); Nick Duncan (SR Forward, 9.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.8 apg); Paris Austin (SR Forward, 12.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.8 apg)
San Diego St.: Trey Kell (JR Guard, 13.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.8 apg); Dakarai Allen (SR Guard, 8.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg); Jeremy Hemsley (SO Guard, 13.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.1 apg)
Prediction
I was all set to pick the Aztecs, as I and 56% of our respondents did in our bracket challenge, but I’m a little hesitant after watching them struggle against UNLV. I’ll stick to my guns and pick the Aztecs to win, 66-62, but I absolutely don’t feel good about it.
Game Info
Who: #3 Boise St. (19-10, 12-6) vs. #6 San Diego St. (18-13, 10-9)
When: Thursday, March 9, 2017 at 9:30pm MT
Watch: CBS Sports Network