The Lobos (12-9, 6-0) return to conference play after going 1-6 over the week and a half of non-conference games. While the Lobos did struggle during a six-game losing streak, five of those games were against Oklahoma State (2 midweek games) and Cal State Fullerton (3 games), both of whom are nationally-ranked. The Lobos did have chances in just about every game to come out with the win, including Saturday’s game against Fullerton, where they had a 4-1 lead at one point. The interesting thing about the struggles during this seven-game stretch was that the issues stemmed from the offense and not the pitching. This is good news for the Lobos as they get back into conference play and face other nationally-ranked teams later in the season, so hopefully their bats can come around for good by then. It was great to see the offense click on Wednesday against Grand Canyon, when they scored 22 runs.
The Lobos will return to conference play this weekend with a trip to Las Vegas to take on UNLV (10-13, 5-4). This is a big series for the Lobos, as they can create huge separation from the rest of the conference with seven series remaining. The Lobos have already swept AFA on the road and SJSU at home (SJSU is 5-1 in their other conference games), so if the Lobos can sweep another series to start conference play 9-0 with two road sweeps, they’ll be in a great spot for the regular season title. In fact, if they do get another sweep, it won’t be long before fans can start planning on hosting another Mountain West Tournament here in Albuquerque. First things first, the Lobos need to take care of business against a much-improved UNLV team that has beaten some good teams this season. If the Lobos can get good starting pitching again, I really like the Lobos chances of winning the series.
UNLV Rebels:
In the rare case where the most famous or well-known coach on the team isn’t the head coach or even a full time paid assistant, the Rebels have Hall of Fame Pitcher Greg Maddux as their volunteer assistant and pitching coach. You’d expect that the Rebel pitching staff has benefitted from Maddux, and the numbers back that up, as their team ERA has improved by almost a run. The Rebels will continue to improve as a pitching staff with Maddux in charge, especially as the pitchers find their roles on the team. It would be a great benefit if the Rebels are able to be a consistent force in the conference, but their history shows a few great years here and there and more of a .500 type program as a whole.
UNLV Notes:
- Lobo assistant Buddy Gouldsmith is no stranger to UNLV, as he is a former assistant (2 years under Jim Schlossnagle) and head coach (7 years, taking over after Schlossnagle took the TCU job).
- Friday night starter Alan Strong is the Rebels best weekend starting pitcher. He carries a 3-0 record with a 3.00 ERA, but with spotty control, as he has 15 walks in 24 innings.
- Saturday and Sunday starters will try to keep the Rebels in the game, but their numbers don’t show anything that should scare the Lobo lineup. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rebels look to use their bullpen early in those two games.
- The Rebels line up boasts six hitters with at least a .300 batting average. The Lobos will look to control the impact of Byson Stott (.370/.442/.430) at the top of the order, and make sure that their two power hitters, Justin James (.359/.429/.577, 4 HR) and Nick Ames (.326/.400/.539, 5 HR), don’t have runners on base if they get a hold of one.
- UNLV has been a much better team at home (8-6) than on the road (2-7). This isn’t really a surprise, since most teams will have this kind of split between home and road.
Lobos News and Notes:
- CF/P Luis Gonzalez continues his great play and has continued to see his MLB Draft stock rise. Baseball America released their Top 100 Draft Prospects this week and had Gonzalez up to 71 on the list. That’s a big jump, as he started the season as the 91st ranked college eligible player. When I asked Hudson Belinsky of Baseball America what he thought of Gonzalez and his draft stock, he replied “Empty college bat class will benefit him. Performance is very loud, solid tools.” Based on this early list Gonzalez, would be looking at a top 2 or 3 round selection, which would be huge for him and the Lobo Baseball Program. It is a common thing for college bats to rise higher in the draft as it approaches, so this will be something to keep an eye on.
- Probably the main concern that I had during the six-game losing streak was the offensive approach from most of the hitters in the lineup. One thing I noticed is that the hitters had a tendency to allow hittable pitches early in the count to go by them, which would lead to a lot of 0-2 counts. That allowed the great pitchers of OSU and Fullerton to throw anything they wanted. It will be interesting to see if there is a change in approach from the Lobos later this year against better pitching.
- It appears that Andrew Pratt is starting to click offensively, which is great news for the Lobos. After all, we saw at the end of last year how much of an impact his bat can have. In both midweek games, he hit a home run, including a mammoth 500-foot homerun on Tuesday.
- Tyler Stevens has been great lately in the Friday night role. If he is able to pitch like he has his last two starts (SJSU and Fullerton), the Lobos should win most of if not all-of his starts. Stevens is another Lobo junior that could see his MLB Draft stock rise if he continues to pitch well.
Team Stats Comparison:
Offensive Stats:
| Stat | Lobos | Rebels |
| Batting Average | .315 | .303 |
| On Base % | .398 | .383 |
| Slugging % | .504 | .414 |
| Walks + HBP | 97 + 15 | 89 + 23 |
| Strikeouts | 140 | 164 |
| Doubles | 58 | 43 |
| Triples | 7 | 7 |
| Home Runs | 24 | 12 |
| Stolen Bases/ Caught Stealing | 23/28 | 24/30 |
| Runs Per Game | 8.333 | 6.087 |
Pitching Stats:
| Stat | Lobos | Rebels |
| Earned Run Average | 5.06 | 5.16 |
| Batting Average Against | .304 | .278 |
| Walks + HBP | 67 + 19 | 97 + 19 |
| Strikeouts | 128 | 136 |
| Doubles | 48 | 47 |
| Triples | 3 | 12 |
| Home Runs | 10 | 16 |
| Stolen Bases | 21/29 | 19/23 |
| Fielding Percentage | .979 | .965 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.286 | 6.087 |
It shouldn’t be a surprise that New Mexico has the advantage in almost every category, as they are the better team. Really, the only category that UNLV has the edge is in Batting Average Against.
Conference Standings:
| Team | Conference Record |
| UNM | 6-0 |
| SDSU | 4-2 |
| FSU | 4-2 |
| SJSU | 5-4 |
| UNLV | 5-4 |
| Nevada | 2-7 |
| AFA | 1-8 |
Conference Series This Weekend:
UNM @ UNLV
AFA @ NV
SDSU @ FSU
The SDSU and FSU series is huge for both of those teams and UNM. If the series goes 2-1, it really won’t create separation for UNM and the winner, but if a team is able to sweep the series, it could make the conference race a two-team race just a few weeks in.
Series Prediction:
I think that the six-game losing streak woke up the Lobos and it could pay huge dividends in the long run. The Lobos are in Las Vegas to make a statement to UNLV and the rest of the conference that they are the team to beat and they mean business. I have the Lobos as a heavy favorite in this series, with a huge advantage on Saturday and Sunday. I give the Lobos a 20% chance of a sweep and a 55% chance of winning the series 2-1. I am giving UNLV an 18% chance of winning the series 2-1, and a 7% chance of sweeping the Lobos. I have the Lobos sweeping the series with a close game on Friday, a blow out on Saturday, and a relatively easy win on Sunday.
Series Information:
Who: New Mexico Lobos (12-9, 6-0) at UNLV Rebels (10-13, 5-4)
When: Friday March 24th 7:05 PM, Saturday March 25th 7:05 PM, Sunday March 26th 2:05 PM
Where: Earl E. Wilson Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Stream: Mountain West Network
Radio: 101.7 The Team (Saturday and Sunday)