The Lobos (16-9, 9-0) return home after finishing off UNLV last weekend for their third straight conference series sweep and a midweek win at NMSU on Tuesday. After dropping six straight games a couple of weeks ago the Lobos have rebounded with a five-game win streak. The pitching has been great for the Lobos for all but two games this season (AFA 24-16 win, OSU 13-0 loss), and it will need to continue to be great this week, as they face a very talented Fresno State (14-0, 5-4) squad that won the MW Regular Season Championship last season. With a series win this weekend, the Lobos could create huge separation between them and FSU just 12 games into a 30-game conference schedule. This is a huge series for both teams this weekend, but you could make the case that it is a bigger series for FSU, after dropping 2 of 3 at home last weekend against SDSU. With another series loss this weekend, FSU’s title hopes will be very slim just 12 games in. This series should be a great matchup between two of the most talented teams in the conference, and the west coast in general.
FSU Bulldogs:
Coming off a year where they won the regular season title, the Bulldogs haven’t started this conference season the way they wanted to. After winning both of their first two series 2-1, they had a tough week at home against SDSU and were just able to salvage the finale with a come-from-behind, walk-off win. The Bulldogs have a chance to give every team in the Mountain West trouble and could still challenge the Lobos and SDSU for the regular season title, but it’s an uphill climb at this point. The Bulldogs have a top 3 offense and a top 2 pitching staff in the conference, which will give them a chance to earn some series sweeps like the Lobos have enjoyed early in the season.
FSU Notes:
- The Bulldogs have a very talented Friday night starter in Left-Hander Ricky Tyler Thomas, who has a 3.05 ERA with 52 strikeouts compared to only 15 walks in 38.1 innings. Thomas will be one of the most talented pitchers the Lobos will see this season and will give them a chance to prove they can hit great pitching. Thomas, who starred last year on the USA College National Team, will be a sought-after pitching prospect in the first couple of rounds of this year’s MLB Draft.
- The Bulldogs have a very deep lineup, with seven everyday players hitting over .280. The one good thing for the Lobos pitching staff is that the Bulldogs only have one player, Aaron Arruda, who is likely to have a huge power weekend.
- The Bulldogs will need to get a great start from Thomas to have a good shot to win the series, as the Lobos should have the pitching advantage in the last two games of the series. If the Lobos are able to get to Thomas and knock him out before he finishes 6 innings, the Lobos should have a good shot at getting the series sweep.
Lobos News and Notes:
- I expect there to be a good number of MLB scouts at the games this weekend. The key matchup that the scouts will be watching will be the at bats between Luis Gonzalez and Ricky Tyler Thomas. With both players expected to be drafted in the first couple of rounds, it will give teams good looks of the two players. Lobos that can also take advantage of this opportunity against Thomas are Carl Stajduhar and Jack Zoellner for this year’s draft and Andrew Pratt and Jared Mang for next year’s draft. Going against Thomas on Friday Night will be Tyler Stevens, who could improve his draft stock a lot with a great start.
- The Lobos’ bullpen has been fantastic to start the year, and the Lobos have something they haven’t had maybe ever: three legit relief pitchers in Sophomore closer Christian Tripp and Freshmen Justin Slaten and Cody Dye. This is probably a one year thing with the three of them, since both Slaten and Dye could end up being the Friday and Saturday starters next season.
Team Stats Comparison:
Offensive Stats:
| Stat | Lobos | Bulldog |
| Batting Average | .314 | .297 |
| On Base % | .402 | .377 |
| Slugging % | .510 | .443 |
| Walks + HBP | 123 + 19 | 98 + 17 |
| Strikeouts | 167 | 194 |
| Doubles | 66 | 51 |
| Triples | 11 | 10 |
| Home Runs | 30 | 19 |
| Stolen Bases/ Caught Stealing | 28/33 | 16/25 |
| Runs Per Game | 8.333 | 6.087 |
Pitching Stats:
| Stat | Lobos | Rebels |
| Earned Run Average | 4.84 | 4.85 |
| Batting Average Against | .303 | .260 |
| Walks + HBP | 73 + 21 | 121 + 27 |
| Strikeouts | 153 | 213 |
| Doubles | 55 | 34 |
| Triples | 4 | 4 |
| Home Runs | 11 | 13 |
| Stolen Bases | 22/30 | 14/19 |
| Fielding Percentage | .978 | .962 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.286 | 6.087 |
The Lobos have the advantage in every offensive statistical category and are relatively even in pitching. One thing that is easy to see is how Lobo pitchers pitch to contact while the Bulldogs like to get more strikeouts.
Conference Standings:
| Team | Conference Record |
| UNM | 9-0 |
| SDSU | 6-3 |
| FSU | 5-4 |
| SJSU | 5-4 |
| UNLV | 5-7 |
| Nevada | 4-8 |
| AFA | 2-10 |
Conference Series This Weekend:
UNM vs. FSU
SDSU vs. SJSU
Interesting weekend in MW Baseball, as there are only two conference series while the other three teams are playing non-conference series. Both conference series are big ones as the #1 plays one of the teams tied for #3 and #2 plays the other team tied for #3 in the conference standings. If there are any sweeps this weekend, it could play a huge factor in the conference standing at the end of the year.
Series Prediction:
The Lobos hosting FSU early in the conference could pay huge dividends for the Lobos in long run and allow the Lobos to clinch the regular season title early and lock the MW Conference Tournament in Albuquerque. I really like the Lobo chances for a series win, as they are playing well and the pressure is more on FSU than the Lobos this weekend. I give the odds of the Lobos sweeping the series at 23%, Lobos winning the series 2-1 at 42%, FSU winning the series 2-1 at 28%, and FSU sweeping the series at 7%. I have the Lobos sweeping the series, with a close game Friday, a 3-5 run win on Saturday and a blowout win on Saturday. Come out and watch the Lobos this weekend, and come early on Friday to watch Men’s Tennis (4 PM) and Softball (5 PM).
Series Information:
Who: New Mexico Lobos (16-9, 9-0) at Fresno State Bulldogs (14-10, 5-4)
When: Friday March 31st 6:30 PM, Saturday April 1st 2 PM, Sunday April 2nd Noon
Where: Santa Ana Star Field, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Stream: Mountain West Network
Radio: 101.7 The Team