After a tough loss at Boise last Thursday, the Lobos get back to action this morning with a road game against Tulsa. Both teams have had rough starts to the season, which has all of the sudden turned this game into must-win for both sides. And with the Lobos as banged up as they are, they’ll need to pull out all the stops to grab that much-needed victory.

Because this is brunch football (for me out in California, at least), instead of my usual preview, here are a few bullet points of things that are on my mind heading into this game:

• First things first, Tulsa may be struggling so far this season, with their only win coming at home against Louisiana-Lafayette, but they can still be a scary team. After all, their offense has been really good this year, averaging 549 yards total with 363.7 of those yards coming on the ground. To be honest, if either of these teams game into the game with those stats, I would have bet an unreasonable sum of money that it was the Lobos running all over their opponents. What worries me beyond that is the same thing that worried me two years ago: Tulsa has a bunch of big receivers. Those have been a weakness to the Lobos for the past few years, and the jury’s still out about this year.
  However, the reason that Tulsa has been struggling is that their defense has been all sorts of bad. Their opponents are averaging 51.7 points and 638.3 yards per game against them. They’ve been vulnerable to the running and the passing game, so it doesn’t seem like teams are exploiting a single weakness. In other words, if the Lobo defense can find a way to slow down Tulsa’s offense, the Lobos have a good shot of coming out with a win. Otherwise, it’s going to be a shootout, and I’m afraid that Tulsa is better suited for that sort of game than the Lobos right now.
• On the Lobos’ side, at what point do we start worrying about the run game? Going into this season, I figured that, if anything, the run offense would be just as dynamic as last year, but so far, it’s been a little shaky. One of the most noticeable things is the lack of huge individual games. The most yards in a single game right now is 65, by Romell Jordan against ACU. Last year, four different players had 100-yard rushing games, and three of them are still on the roster. I’m all for one or two guys busting out some huge runs soon and today seems as good a day as any.
• I’m sure you really came here for a chart of the two teams’ current F/+ rankings, didn’t you? Well who am I to disappoint? As we can see, Tulsa rates out better overall (81st to 103rd), but they’re still a below-average team. It won’t be an easy game, but they’re beatable.
  
• Lamar Jordan is out for this game after getting pummeled by a Boise State defensive lineman, a hit that triggered an ejection for targeting. It’s obviously a blow to the team and I’m hoping that Coltin Gerhart can make the most of his opportunity, but watching that clip of Jordan staggering off the field make the rounds nationally honestly made it a little difficult to get excited for another football game. I really hope that he’s okay.
• As far as predictions go, I think that the Lobos keep it close, but ultimately lose something like 45-38. The defense has been good against the run, though, which could slow Tulsa down a bit. If they do, the Lobos could come home with the upset victory. Would be a nice way to start the day.