Wow, it feels like it’s been a long time since we’ve had a Lobo football game, doesn’t it? Well, that changes today, as they get back to action in Fresno. The Lobos are currently riding a two-game winning streak and are looking to stay on a run, but Fresno is on a little streak of their own. Should be a fun one.

A Little About Fresno State

The Season So Far: Fresno State has done pretty much exactly what they should have done in their first five games: They beat an FCS team, they got pounded by two top-5 teams, then they pulled out wins against some of the worst teams in the conference. Because of that, it’s a little hard to judge how well their season is going. However, sitting at 3-2, they’re in a pretty good position in terms of qualifying for a bowl game, as they still have teams like UNLV, Hawaii, and (weird to say that this isn’t a tough game) BYU left on the schedule. Definitely a rebound season after last year’s 1-11 campaign.

The Coach: With that 1-11 record last season, it’s no surprise that there’s a new guy at the helm. That guy, Jeff Tedford, happens to be a pretty accomplished coach already, as he spent 11 season as the coach at Cal, building that program into a regular top-25 team before fading towards the end of his tenure. He has a reputation of developing quarterbacks, including some guy named Aaron Rodgers. Not a bad line on your resume, for sure. He also used to coach at Fresno State back in the 90’s making this something of a reunion. All in all, looks to be a pretty good hire from my vantage point.

Key Players: On offense, Marcus McMaryion is the starting quarterback, having earned that position a few games ago. He’s been good for the Bulldogs this season, completing almost 70% of his passes, racking up 7.6 yards per attempt, and throwing 4 touchdowns to 1 interception. Da’Mari Scott and KeeSean Johnson have been the primary targets, each collecting over 25 catches so far this season. Out of the backfield, Ronnie Rivers shoulders the bulk of the rushing load, although Jordan Mims and Josh Hokit also see plenty of action. All three are threats to catch a pass as well.

On defense, safety JuJu Hughes was just named MW defensive player of the week for his performance against SJSU. He had six tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and an interception. Linebacker Jeffery Allison leads the team in tackles with 41 and cornerback Jaron Bryant leads the team with 3 interceptions.

Advanced Stat Comparison

Advanced metrics aren’t really sure what to make of Fresno State, as one Football Outsiders metric, S&P+ has them as the 89th best team while another, FEI, has them as the worst team in FBS. So, naturally, their combined stat, F/+ puts them somewhere in between, at 107th. The Lobos, on the other hand, have more agreement about them, as they are 71st in S&P+, 75th in FEI, and 74th in F/+. The full F/+ ratings are below, with FSU and UNM highlighted.

If we look at just S&P+ ratings, we see that the Lobos have good offense, a good special teams unit, and a below-average defense. Fresno State is better at defense than the Lobos, but is noticeably worse on both offense and special teams.

Scattered Thoughts

• I feel like I’ve read several previews that have mentioned the Lobos getting drilled by Fresno State last time the two teams played in Fresno, so here’s the obligatory mention. It clearly doesn’t matter much, if at all, given that the game happened two years ago. Of course, that kind of highlights how the two division setup has affected the conference, especially with several of the newer teams in the West division. The Lobos rarely play the Bulldogs, so the only storylines we can pull are from games that none of these players participated in. Plus, these teams don’t really have much past history either, so it would be easy to forget that they’re even in the same conference, honestly.
• Richard McQuarley was ridiculous against Air Force, although I don’t think you needed me to tell you that. But, his performance was also a sign that the offensive line could be gelling. They were just named to the Joe Moore Mid-Season Honor Roll for offensive line play and I think that they’re getting better. If they keep it up, I doubt Rock will be the only one with huge games.
• I doubt anyone else cares about this, but I wrote a whole article about them a couple of years ago, so here’s my question: what happened to all the helmet variants? If I did a ranking again this year, it would be super easy, as we’ve only seen two looks (white with the Lobo shield and white with the Zia). I got spoiled, I guess.

Prediction

Maybe I’m still riding high from the Air Force and Tulsa wins, but I’m feeling pretty good about the Lobos right now. If they can run the ball like they did last game, I think that they’ll be able to come away with an important road win. I’ll take them to win 27-21.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (3-2, 1-1) at Fresno State Bulldogs (3-2, 2-0)

Where: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, CA

When: Saturday, October 14, 8:08 PM MT

Watch: Root Sports/AT&T Sports

Listen: 770 KKOB