The Lobos got absolutely steamrolled last weekend at Fresno State, losing 38-0, so one has to think that they’re ready to get back on the field to forget about that beating. Unfortunately, their opponent, Colorado State, is another team that the Lobos haven’t had much success against in the recent past. It won’t be easy, but with the Lobos’ backs against the wall, I’m not going to count them out.

A Little About Colorado State

The Season So Far: The Rams have had a strong start to the season, bringing a 5-2 record into this matchup. They opened their year with a convincing 58-27 win against Oregon State, that looked better then compared to now, followed by a disappointing performance against Colorado. Their next big game came when they traveled to Alabama and got beat down by the Crimson Tide, which there’s no shame in this season. After that, they started their conference season, where they have won three straight (at Hawaii, at Utah State, vs Nevada). At this point, they’re one of the three undefeated teams in the division, so they absolutely have their eyes set on a title right now.

The Coach: Mike Bobo is now in his third season with the Rams, having gone 7-6 in each of the past two years. He’s an SEC veteran, having spent 14 years at Georgia, so one has to think that he has his eyes set on a P5 job at some point. And, given how his team is playing this season, that could come sooner than later. In fact, some in Colorado are already wringing their hands about it. However, the school is clearly trying to build up its program to be as attractive as a P5 program (and maybe even try to be a P5 program…), so there’s no guarantee that he’ll want to leave. If they end up winning the conference, it might be an interesting offseason for the Rams, though.

Key Players: Quarterback Nick Stevens has been off to a great start in his senior season, throwing 18 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and recording 2260 yards coming into this game. His main target is WR Michael Gallup, who leads the country with a bonkers 953 yards receiving. For reference, the next highest in the conference has 667 yards (the leader for the Lobos has 248…). In the backfield, the Rams rely on the 1-2 punch of Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews. They have different running styles, as Matthews is significantly bigger and uses that to his advantage, but they’re both effective rushers.

On defense, Josh Watson is their star linebacker, as was selected to preseason all-conference teams by a couple of publications and he leads the team in tackles and passes defended. Defensive backs Kevin Nutt Jr. and Jamal Hicks lead the team in interceptions, with 2 each, and both are in the top 5 tacklers for the Rams. No one Ram seems to be the sack leader, but instead, just about everyone in the front seven is capable of pressuring the quarterback.

Advanced Stat Comparison

Like, Fresno State, advanced metrics aren’t really sure what to make of Colorado State, as one Football Outsiders metric, S&P+ has them as the 35th best team while another, FEI, has them at 86th. Because of that, their combined stat, F/+ puts them as being about average, as the 63rd best team. The Lobos, saw a big drop after last week’s game, falling from the 74th ranked team to the 91st. That’s what a 38-0 loss will get you, I suppose. The full F/+ ratings are below, with CSU and UNM highlighted.

If we look at just S&P+ ratings, we see that Colorado State ranks higher in all three facets of the game. Their offense relies on a strong, explosive passing game that is backed by a solid ground game. On defense, they don’t rate out quite as they are vulnerable to good passing games and  big plays as well. However, they do have a solid run defense.

Scattered Thoughts

• Lamar Jordan did not have a particularly good game at Fresno State – although maybe only Corey Bojorquez could claim that he did – and that led to his benching at halftime. To me, he looked afraid to get hit, as he would often scamper to the sidelines rather than turn upfield into traffic. That cost the Lobos at least a couple times, as those decisions turned first downs into punts. I can’t help but think back to that hit he took at Boise State that left him wobbling off the field and caused him to miss a game. If he isn’t well, or if he understandably doesn’t want to take any more big hits, it’s going to be hard for him to perform at the level he’s capable of, which is going to make it hard for the Lobos to do well. He’s supposed to be starting this game again, so hopefully that was a one-game thing. I’m definitely rooting for him.
• The Lobos have six games left and need to win three of them to be bowl eligible. And looking at the schedule, they need to either beat CSU or Wyoming, as I don’t want to have to count on them beating Texas A&M or SDSU on the road. They’re in a tough position right now, and a loss tonight will only make it tougher. Suffice to say, the season might just be on the line tonight.
• Two games ago, I complained about the run game not being effective, the Richard McQuarley went beast mode all over Air Force. Then, last game, I complained about the diversity of the helmets and they bust out the turquoise uniforms. I think I have a superpower.

Prediction

The Rams seem perfectly designed to beat the Lobos, as they’re a good passing team that is strong on defense against the run. If the Lobos can win the turnover battle, they’ll have a chance, but if they lose it again like they did last week, it could get ugly. I’ll pick the Rams to win 42-27. I hope I’m wrong.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (3-2, 1-1) vs Colorado State Rams (5-2, 3-0)

Where: Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

When: Friday, October 20, 8:15 PM MT

Watch: ESPN2

Listen: 770 KKOB