The Lobos bounced back last week against a good Colorado State team, but ultimately couldn’t pull off the upset. I didn’t have great expectations for the Lobos going into that game, but given the way the game went, it felt like a missed opportunity. After all, if the holding penalty had been called a safety, if they had scored quickly at the end of the game, if that last pass had been ruled a completion, or any number of small things that happened in the game, they could have walked out with a win. It’s amazing how those small things stick in your mind in a close loss…

Regardless, the season marches forward and the Lobos still have work to do. They’re in Wyoming this weekend, looking to repeat last season’s performance against the Cowboys with a solid drubbing of the boys in brown. A win will get their season back on track, while a loss will make things really difficult. Needless to say, this is an important one.

A Little About Wyoming

The Season So Far: The Cowboys are currently sitting at 4-3, with the three losses coming against Iowa, Oregon, and Boise State. That loss against Boise State came just last weekend and snapped a three-game win streak, and also gave them their only conference loss so far. They don’t have an easy road ahead of them, though, as after the Lobos, they get CSU, Air Force, and Fresno State, all of which will be fairly tough games. That means that they’re in a good position to become bowl eligible right now, but a loss against the Lobos could put them in a tough spot.

The Coach: Craig Bohl, who won three straight FCS championships with North Dakota State before coming to Wyoming. He’s now in his fourth season with the Cowboys and has done a solid job of turning the program around. Last season, they ended up 8-6, which was a massive improvement from the 2-10 season they had the year before and earned him MW Coach of the Year. This season still has potential to end up as good as or better than last, which would show that the program is on fairly stable ground.

Key Players: Quarterback Josh Allen is a name you’ll hear quite a bit, as he’s apparently a top QB prospect for next year’s NFL Draft. His numbers have taken a hit this season, however, as he lost his top three receiving targets and his two best rushers. With a major downgrade in talent, he’s clearly the guy that everyone is going to focus on.

On defense, safety Andrew Wingard is the star, as he leads the team in tackles and has added two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Some other guys to look out for are sophomore linebacker Logan Wilson, who has already solidified himself at the heart of the defense, defensive end Carl Granderson, who has managed to pick up six sacks already, and cornerback Rico Gafford, who leads the team with four interceptions.

Advanced Stat Comparison

As a whole, advanced stats don’t love Wyoming. They’re ranked 90th in Football Outsiders’ F/+, 83rd in S&P+, and 96th in FEI (compared to 80th, 74th, and 88th for the Lobos). The full F/+ ratings are below, with CSU and UNM highlighted.

If we look at just S&P+ ratings, we see that Wyoming’s main issue seems to lie on offense. They’re ranked in the bottom 10 in that regard, which maybe isn’t a huge surprise as they’re averaging under 300 yards per game. They haven’t had a particularly explosive offense, but they’ll probably try to take shots at UNM’s secondary, as most teams have. Their offensive struggles are a little strange, as they were actually pretty solid in that category last season. I guess their graduating players left bigger holes than they were expecting. On defense, however, they’re pretty good. They are particularly good at forcing turnovers, with 2.4 takeaways per game this season. It’s also worth noting that between Jason Sanders and Corey Bojorquez, UNM’s special teams has been a legitimate strength this season.

About Bowl Eligibility

I mentioned last week that the Lobos really needed to win at least one of the CSU-WYO set of games if they want to be bowl eligible and now that a loss to CSU is in the books, they really need to beat Wyoming. To illustrate this, I made the plot below, which shows the probability of the Lobos finishing with either 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 wins, based on ESPN’s win probabilities, given where things stand currently, where things will be with a loss, and where things will be with a win.

As we can see, right now, ESPN only gives the Lobos a 21% chance of becoming bowl eligible (that is, ending with 6 or more wins). That a little less than the probability that someone’s first two children are both girls, which is absolutely not out of the realm of possibility. However, a loss would sink that probability to just 8.1%, which is the probability that the person sitting next to you at the game was born in April. On the other hand, a win would shoot the probability up to 44.9%, which is, I don’t know, a little less than the probability a coin flip lands head. I’m out of fun examples. Regardless, a win today gives the Lobos a decent shot to make another bowl game. A loss puts them in a really rough spot.

Prediction

I like the Lobos’ chances in this one, as they have had good success against the Cowboys in recent years and I think that they’ll be able to contain the Wyoming offense. It will probably be an ugly, low-scoring game, but I think the Lobos will win 27-21.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (3-4, 1-3) vs Wyoming Cowboys (4-3, 2-1)

Where: War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, WY

When: Saturday, October 28, 5:30 PM MT

Watch: ESPNU

Listen: 770 KKOB