Last week’s game was…. not great. The Lobos went to Wyoming and looked completely out of sorts, allowing 42 first-half points on the way to a 42-3 drubbing. On the bright side, they won the second half 3-0. On whatever the opposite of the bright side is, everything else. That leaves the Lobos with a 3-5 record, needing to win three of their remaining four games to assure themselves a third-straight bowl game. If that happens, one of those games almost certainly has to be this one against Utah State. With their backs against the wall, I like to think that the Lobos will be ready for the challenge.

A Little About Utah State

The Season So Far: The Aggies (the second of three sets of Aggies the Lobos face this year) come into this game with a 4-5 record, needing to win two of their remaining three games to make a bowl game. They got to that record by basically beating every team that they should have beat (Idaho State, BYU, SJSU, and UNLV) and losing to every team they should have lost to (Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Boise State, Colorado State, Wyoming). This game is pretty big for them, because they have one more game following that they “should” win and one that they “should” lose. This game is a toss-up, so it could decide the fate of their season.

The Coach: Matt Wells, who is in his seventh season with the Aggies, the last five of which he’s spent as the head coach. He’s actually an Aggie alum, as he played quarterback for them in the mid-90s. He inherited a solid team as they were making the transition from the WAC to the Mountain West, which gave him a couple of solid seasons to start out his head coaching career. However, the past few years, things haven’t been quite as good, as the Aggies haven’t had a winning record since 2014. It’s unclear what expectations are in Logan, given that the past couple of seasons are more in line with how they’ve performed historically than the good seasons they had a few years ago, but I’m sure that fans aren’t super happy with the current state of the program.

Key Players: Redshirt freshman Jordan Love recently took over the starting quarterback job, supplanting junior Kent Myers. Love is not as accurate of a quarterback, but he picks up bigger yards on his completions than Myers. Regardless of who we see, both will run several times each game, with similar success. Their main rusher has been senior Lajuan Hunt, who leads the team in rushing touchdowns with 6. He’s not a big running back, but he’s still effective. WR Ron’Quavion Tarver and TE Dax Raymond are the primary receiving targets, and both are big guys who use their size to their advantage.

On defense, safety Dallin Leavitt and CB Jalen Davis have been ballhawks, picking off a combined 8 passes this season. Davis even has three pick-sixes to his name already this season. Junior LB Suliasi Tamaivena is having a really good season as well, leading the Aggies in tackles and sacks and recovering a couple of fumbles. The Aggies are actually pretty good at creating turnovers as a whole, so the Lobos will need to take good care of the ball if they want to win this one.

Advanced Stat Comparison

Based solely on advanced metrics, these two teams are pretty similar. F/+ has Utah State as the 93rd ranked team and the Lobos as the 99th. S&P+ has them at 80 and 82, respectively, while FEI has them at 98 and 109. That is, none of the metrics particularly like either team. We can see where both teams fit into the college football landscape in the plot below.

If we look at just S&P+ ratings, the similarities stick out even more. Both teams are well below average at offense, a little below average on defense, and really good at special teams. It is worth noting that offensively, they do get to the same point through different means. Utah State relies more on their passing attack than their rushing, while the Lobos are, clearly, the other way around. On defense, the Lobos might be a little better at preventing yardage, but Utah State creates about twice as many turnovers as the Lobos.

Where Things Stand

If we’re being honest, the Lobos are not in a great situation right now. Even without considering what has happened over the past few weeks, the Lobos have to win three of the following four games to become bowl eligible (ESPN win probabilities in parentheses):

• This game against Utah State (44.7%)
• On the road against Texas A&M (7.3%)
• Home against UNLV (54.2%)
• On the road against San Diego State (11.9%)

Based on those probabilities, ESPN gives the Lobos about a 5% chance of making a bowl. I know you’re thinking it, so might as well add it:

It’s not impossible, sure, but it’s clearly not the situation that we were hoping to be in at this point. After all, going into the season, it was easy to pencil in losses against both Texas A&M and SDSU, so it’s not ideal that one of those games has to be a win now.

Prediction

In theory, I think that the Lobos actually match up pretty well against Utah State, so I would like their odds. If they play as well as they did against, say, Tulsa or Colorado State, they should pull out a win. However, if they come out like they did against Fresno State or Wyoming, it’s pretty clear that’s not going to work out well. I’m an optimist, so I think that the Good Lobos will show up and win the game 27-21.

Game Info

Who: New Mexico Lobos (3-5, 1-4) vs Utah State Aggies (4-5, 2-3)

Where: Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

When: Saturday, November 4, 3:30 PM MT

Watch: The channel formerly known as Root Sports (AT&T SportsNet)

Listen: 770 KKOB