The Lobos (12-7-2) are in the Mountain West Championship Match tonight, after forcing two draws and ultimately advancing in the shoot-outs against FSU and SJSU. They will take on SDSU (11-7-2), who won their first match of the tournament in the Semifinals with a 1-0 win over BSU. So far during the tournament, the Lobos have had ups and downs, but in the end it is all smiles, having tied and advanced to the championship. For both teams, this match will be a win and advance to the NCAA Tournament, or lose and go home.
Last Meeting:
It wasn’t long ago that the two sides met, as just last weekend the Lobos hosted the Aztecs in the regular season finale with the Aztecs winning 4-3, scoring the final goal with just seconds left in the 2nd overtime period. In reality, the goal shouldn’t have counted, due to College Soccer having a running clock. It was a strange match from the beginning, with the Aztecs scoring in the first and last minute of the match and also scoring on an own goal with a few minutes left in regulation. The Lobos scored 3 goals in the middle part of the match, but in the end were unable to get the result.
Claire Lynch Is Back:
After picking up a yellow and a red (there are no second yellows) in the quarterfinal match, Lynch had to sit out the semifinal match against SJSU. The card that sent Lynch off was one of the worst second cards I have ever seen, so it’s a good thing for the Lobos that this didn’t keep them from advancing and allowing Lynch to play at least one more match in the Lobo uniform. Lynch leads the Lobos in scoring and has been great at getting big goals in big matches. I expect for Lynch to have a big championship match.
Jessie Hix:
It can’t be stated enough how good Hix has been for the Lobos this season. She has controlled the middle of the field in every match this season with her defense in the midfield and has provided a lot of help on offense. She is second on the team with 8 goals (6 coming on headers). She reminds me a lot of a former Lobo men’s player in Brandon Moss, although one thing that Hix provides that Moss really didn’t was the scoring punch. Here are a couple other reasons Hix reminds me of Moss: both played high school at Eldorado winning state titles and both play/played center mid at UNM while wearing number 7. I can’t wait to watch what Hix will do these next two years at UNM.
Stat Comparison:
| SDSU | Opponents | |
| Goals | 32 (11 1st half, 21 2nd half) | 23 (10 1st half, 13 half) |
| Goals Per Match | 1.60 | 1.15 |
| Shots on Goal/Shots | 119/253 | 93/217 |
| Shots Per Match | 12.6 | 10.9 |
| Assists | 24 | 19 |
| Corner Kicks | 95 | 106 |
| Fouls | 158 | 184 |
| Saves | 70 | 87 |
| Goals Against Average | 1.10 | 1.52 |
| Shutouts | 7 | 4 |
- Mia Root leads the Aztecs with 9 goals on the season, so the Lobos defense needs to limit her impact on the match.
- Aliyah Utush has been the Aztecs best playmaker, as she has 6 goals and 7 assists on the season.
| Lobos | Opponents | |
| Goals | 34 (13 1st half, 21 2nd half) | 27 (10 1st half, 17 2nd half) |
| Goals Per Match | 1.62 | 1.29 |
| Shots on Goal/Shots | 143/350 | 87/235 |
| Shots Per Match | 16.9 | 11.2 |
| Assists | 21 | 20 |
| Corner Kicks | 118 | 82 |
| Fouls | 228 | 179 |
| Saves | 60 | 109 |
| Goals Against Average | 1.24 | 1.56 |
| Shutouts | 6 | 4 |
- Claire Lynch leads the Lobos with 10 goals, while Jessie Hix is second with 8 goals.
- The Lobos have had 12 players score a goal and 13 players have an assist this season.
As we can see in the stats, both teams are very even. The two things that can lead to a huge Lobo advantage: corner kicks (long throws) and shots.
Match Prediction:
The two sides match up extremely well, so on a neutral field without penalty kicks I would give the odds of the match to be 25% chance for each side winning and 50% chance of a draw. I would put the odds at the same in this match, but give the Lobos a slight advantage to advance if things go to a shoot-out. I give the Lobos a 55% chance of advancing. I have the Lobos winning the match 2-1 with goals from Lynch and Hix, giving the Lobos the ticket to the NCAA Tournament. In the event the Lobos win, I expect Hix to be the MVP of the tournament.
Championship Match Info:
Who: New Mexico Lobos (12-7-2) vs. SDSU Aztecs (11-7-2)
When: Saturday, November 4th, 8:00 P.M. MT
Where: UNLV, Las Vegas, Nevada
Stream: MW Network (Stadium)