We’re now a couple weeks into the Men’s Basketball season and I think it’s fair to say that we’ve now learned a few things about this version of the Lobos. For one, anyone who was predicting a perfect season is already disappointed. But that was inevitable. However, this is a team that plays hard, doesn’t give up, and, in my opinion, will continue to get better as the season goes on. I’m still having fun, at least.

Preseason Poll

Before the first (D-1) game, we asked our twitter followers to fill out their preseason MWC. We got 9 responses, which isn’t a ton, but it still gave us some interesting results. As you can see below, optimism was pretty high at that moment.

Rank	Team	Points
1	Nevada (6)	94
2-T	San Diego State (2)	79
2-T	Fresno State	79
4-T	New Mexico (1)	68
4-T	Boise State	68
6	Colorado State	49
7	UNLV	44
8	Wyoming	37
9	Utah State	32
10	Air Force	24
11	San Jose State	20

Aside from the Lobos jumping to 4th, everything else shook out pretty similarly to the MW Preseason media poll, although Lobo fans seem to be a little more skeptical of Boise State than the media. In both polls, Nevada is the clear favorite, SDSU, FSU and Boise State make up the next tier, CSU, UNLV, and Wyoming are the third tier, while USU, Air Force, and SJSU are the bottom tier. Obviously Lobo fans and the media disagree about the Lobos, although my guess is that the media give a lower bound while the fans are giving an upper bound. Would it be a surprise if the Lobos finished anywhere between 5th and 8th? Probably not.

We also had a couple of Lobo-specific predictions that also showed a lot of optimism. My guess is that if I asked these questions again right now, they’d tell a different story, but it’s safe to say that there were high hopes coming in.

Lobos Win Total: 21.1 (Low: 19, High: 26)

Final KenPom Rank: 97 (Best: 45, Worst: 124)

It’s going to be a little, but not impossible for the Lobos to get to 21 wins at this point, as they are 2-4 with 25 games left. However, I don’t know if a KenPom rank of 97 is out of the question. If one of these two hit, that’s probably the one.

Four Factors Update

As mentioned in my preseason post, Coach Weir appears to be a subscriber to the four factors of basketball: effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and free throw rate, all of which are important on both offense and defense. So, how have the Lobos been doing so far?

To be honest, not great. On offense, they’ve been a little above average in turnover percentage and offensive rebound percentage, but well below average on effective field goal percentage and free throw rate. On defense, they’ve been great at creating turnovers, but bad to terrible at the other three factors. The end result has been a below-average offense and an average defense.

What is perhaps most interesting about all this is when we look at a game-by-game basis. A very clear thing on offense is that when the Lobos are shooting poorly, they’re going to have a hard time winning. Part of that is because their above-average rebounding mostly comes from their first two games, as they’ve been below average since. That means that they don’t get a lot of second chances, so if they’re missing the first chances, they’re in trouble.

Likewise on defense, the Lobos have been beat when one of two things happens: either their opponents shoot well, or their opponents own the offensive glass. It’s also appears as though if their defense is going to be effective, they need to turn their opponents over a bunch. In every game, they’ve had an above average turnover percentage on defense, but just being above average doesn’t seem to be enough. And I suppose that it makes sense. Because they give up a lot of offensive rebounds, and thus extra possessions, they need to take away possessions in other ways. If they don’t do that, their opponents are going to score a lot of points.

Scattered Thoughts

• I think that it’s worth talking about the returning players, given that we knew the most about them coming into this season. Sam Logwood looks like a completely different player this season, as he’s playing aggressively and with confidence. He’s also shooting a ton of free throws and making them at an 83% clip. Likewise, Anthony Mathis has become the sharpshooter that we always expected him to become, as he’s shooting over 50% from deep right now. It’s amazing how a fresh slate seems to have affected them both. Dane Kuiper is playing with an injured finger on his shooting hand (at least that’s what Zach told me…), so it’s not super surprising that he’s not shooting well. Hopefully that heals up soon. He’s still playing hard defense and is rebounding well, though. Joe Furstinger has been asked to do a lot on defense and has been doing pretty well, becoming a solid shot blocker. He’s also started shooting threes, with no success so far, but given that he’s 14-15 from the free throw line, there’s some hope that those shots will start falling soon.
• Chris McNeal is a stud. I don’t have a lot to add there at this point, to be honest, except that it’s fun to have a point guard like him around.
• The Lobos’ lack of size has been noticeable so far this season, especially when Joe gets into foul trouble. Vlad Pinchuk can hold his own offensively right now, but on defense, there’s a pretty big drop-off between Joe and him. That makes the press less effective, as opponents have been getting to the rim way too easily when they break it. I’m not sure how much longer Connor will be out, but when he comes back, hopefully he’s ready to be a defensive anchor as well.
• Evansville is up next. They shoot threes well, but they do turn the ball over a decent amount, they play slow, and they don’t have great offensive rebounding. Should be a good opportunity for the Lobos to try to impose their style of play.