It’s been a little while since we’ve check in with Men’s Basketball and, unsurprisingly, a lot has happened, both on and off the court. Given that today is the start of Mountain West Conference play, it’s worth taking a look to see how things are going on the court right now.
How The Lobos Are Doing
It’s been kind of a strange non-conference season this year, with the Lobos having games that give fans hope that that could beat anyone (see: TCU, Arizona), and then games that make fans question whether or not they can beat anyone (see: Tennessee Tech, UTEP). That inconsistency shouldn’t be that big of a surprise, if we’re being realistic. After all, this team is full of players who are playing with each other for the first time, with a new system, against new opponents. There are going to be some growing pains. The hope is that as the season progresses, the consistency will come. And even if it doesn’t, this year is all about building a foundation.
If we look at the game-by-game performance of the Lobos on both offense and defense (looking at the Four Factors of Basketball, where the green dots are wins, the red dots are losses, and the blue line shows the average across college basketball.), we see exactly what that inconsistency looks like, especially on the defensive end. The Lobos have games where they can limit offensive boards and prevent shots from going in, but then they have other games where the other team can score at will and when they miss, they just get an offensive rebound. Part of that is absolutely opponent-driven, in that better teams will perform better against the Lobos, but we’ve already let some bad teams score at will against us.
One thing that really sticks out to me is how important rebounding appears to be to this Lobo team. If they can control the boards, they have a decent shot at winning. For example, when they have an above-average offensive rebounding rate, they’re 4-1. When they don’t, they’re 1-7. Now, with their lack of size, that’s not an easy task, but rebounding is not just about being bigger than the other team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that if the Lobos start to have success at some point this season, it will be because they started to control the boards on both sides of the court.
Where Things Stand, Conference-Wise
Based on what I’ve seen and read, I think that we can separate the conference into five tiers going into conference play. The top two tiers are all teams that wouldn’t shock me if if they happened to be the top seed in the conference tournament, while the bottom tier would shock me if they didn’t end up as the 10th and 11th seed.
Tier 1: Nevada, SDSU
Tier 2: Boise State, UNLV, Fresno State
(BIG GAP)
Tier 3: Wyoming, Utah State
Tier 4: New Mexico, Colorado State
(BIG GAP)
Tier 5: Air Force, SJSU
A Little About Air Force
The Season So Far: The Falcons are 6-6 so far, but don’t be fooled, that’s against a pretty easy schedule. Their toughest game was at Colorado, which by KenPom rankings, was the Lobos’ sixth-toughest game. They haven’t played any other games against teams in the top 150, by KenPom, and their best win was against #187 Canisius. They have been playing the same sort of style that you’d expect, with a slow pace, a lot of threes, and a zone defense. What has been plaguing them so far is that the shots just haven’t been falling. Their effective field goal percentage is 45.2%, which puts them at 322nd in the country. They also turn the ball over a lot and their opponents shoot well against them. However, they are good at forcing turnovers and they’re very good at shooting free throws.
Coach: Dave Pilipovich is in his sixth season with the Falcons, having gone 78-100 so far. He’s yet to have a really good year with Air Force, with only one season on the books with a winning record, but that’s not entirely his fault. After all, coaching at Air Force is super difficult, with a limited pool of players to recruit, lots of player obligations to plan around, and the chance that players will leave after their sophomore year because they don’t want to stay in the military. So, if he’s happy to be there and they’re okay with the level the program is at, he could be there indefinitely.
Key Players: 6’6” senior forward Ryan Manning has been the Falcon’s best player this season, averaging 11.4 points and 4.9 rebounds, both of which lead the team. He hasn’t been a great three-point shooter, but that hasn’t stopped him from taking them regularly. However, he has been good at drawing fouls and getting to the line, where he’s converting at an 81% clip. 6’6” sophomore Lavelle Scottie has been the best underclassman for the Falcons, averaging 10.3 points and 3.8 rebounds. Unlike Manning, he takes most of his shots inside the arc, although he hasn’t been particularly efficient at doing so. Another senior, 6’4” guard Trevor Lyons plays the most on the team and is averaging 9.7 points and 4.8 boards. He’s also making 51% of his threes, so he’s the most obvious guy that you don’t want to leave open.
Prediction: I think that the Lobos should win this one, as not only do I think they are they the better team, they match up well with the Falcons too. I’ll pick them to win 84-72.
Game Info
Who: New Mexico Lobos (5-8, 0-0) vs. Air Force Falcons (6-6, 0-0)
When: Wednesday, December 27, 2017 at 7pm MT
Where: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Watch: AT&T Rocky Mountain
Listen: 770 KOB