The non-conference schedule is finished for the Lobos (12-1) and the second season, Mountain West play, begins on Tonight. The Lobos have started the season on fire with good wins over Marquette, Western Michigan, UTEP, NMSU (rivalry games x2), Lamar, Illinois and Navy. The only loss on the Lobos schedule was against a very good Oklahoma team when they were without Jaisa Nunn. After being picked 4th in the preseason poll, the Lobos have inserted themselves as the clear favorite to win the MW this season. Looking back at the preseason awards, the Lobos had the Preseason Player of the Year (Cherise Beynon), Newcomer of the Year (Tesha Buck), and Rookie of the Year (N’Dea Flye). All three players have a good shot of winning those awards, with Beynon’s most likely challengers being teammates in Nunn and Buck. You could make a case the Lobos have the 3 best players in the MW this season.
At Large Chances:
Since the conference realignment happened a handful of years ago (losing Utah, BYU and TCU), the MW has basically been a one-bid league. Once again, that would be the likely outcome if the Lobos win the Conference Tournament in March. The question now is where do the Lobos stand for a chance at an at-large bid? The Lobos RPI right now is 18 ,which is a great number and on its face, deserving of an at-large bid. However, the problem that the Lobos could run into is that there isn’t another Top 100 win left on their schedule, so the number will probably finish in the 40 range. I think the Lobos will be in great shape for an at-large bid if they are able to go 16-2 or better in MW play and make it to the MW Tournament championship game (and lose, as they wouldn’t need an at-large bid if they win). That would have their record at 29-4 against Division 1 opponents and likely winning their conference by a handful of games. I don’t see the selection committee leaving out that kind of team that did play a good non-conference schedule.
Conference Stats Comparison:
While advanced stats are lacking for Women’s Basketball, I have looked at some important basic stats and given teams 1-11 points based on their conference ranking, with 1st place getting 11 points and so on. The more points you have the better chance you have of doing well in conference play.
Points Per Game Differential:
| Points For | Points Against | Differential | Points | |
| UNM | 86.3 | 71.5 | 14.8 | 11 |
| BSU | 70.8 | 60.0 | 10.8 | 10 |
| CSU | 64.5 | 56.4 | 8.1 | 9 |
| WYO | 59.5 | 54.9 | 4.5 | 8 |
| Nevada | 68.6 | 68.6 | 0 | 7 |
| SDSU | 66.0 | 66.5 | -.5 | 6 |
| FSU | 65.5 | 69.5 | -4.0 | 5 |
| UNLV | 66.6 | 71.4 | -4.8 | 4 |
| USU | 63.4 | 72.0 | -8.6 | 3 |
| AFA | 56.0 | 67.4 | -11.4 | 2 |
| SJSU | 72.8 | 88.2 | -15.4 | 1 |
With the level of opponents being different for each team, the margin of victory could have some flaws. The key to this stat is to get an idea of what kind of style and pace the teams play.
Offensive Field Goal Percentage:
| Field Goal Percentage | Points | |
| UNM | 43.9% | 11 |
| CSU | 43.1% | 10 |
| BSU | 41.9% | 9 |
| Nevada | 40.8% | 8 |
| WYO | 39.8% | 7 |
| USU | 39.5% | 6 |
| SDSU | 39.2% | 5 |
| FSU | 37.5% | 4 |
| SJSU | 37.4% | 3 |
| UNLV | 36.6% | 2 |
| AFA | 33.8% | 1 |
Defensive Field Goal Percentage:
| Field Goal Percentage | Points | |
| CSU | 33.7% | 11 |
| BSU | 37.1% | 10 |
| UNM | 38.8% | 9 |
| WYO | 38.8% | 9 |
| SDSU | 41.0% | 7 |
| UNLV | 41.1% | 6 |
| USU | 42.5% | 5 |
| FSU | 42.7% | 4 |
| AFA | 43.8% | 3 |
| Nevada | 44.1% | 2 |
| SJSU | 44.5% | 1 |
Offensive 3 Point Percentage:
| 3 Point Percentage | Points | |
| UNM | 39.0% | 11 |
| Nevada | 36.6% | 10 |
| FSU | 35.5% | 9 |
| SDSU | 35.4% | 8 |
| SJSU | 34.9% | 7 |
| CSU | 33.3% | 6 |
| WYO | 31.2% | 5 |
| USU | 28.6% | 4 |
| BSU | 28.6% | 4 |
| AFA | 25.8% | 2 |
| UNLV | 25.7% | 1 |
Defensive 3 Point Percentage:
| 3 Point Percentage | Points | |
| CSU | 25.5% | 11 |
| WYO | 25.9% | 10 |
| BSU | 26.2% | 9 |
| AFA | 28.9% | 8 |
| FSU | 29.4% | 7 |
| SJSU | 29.8% | 6 |
| UNLV | 30.0% | 5 |
| SDSU | 32.1% | 4 |
| UNM | 32.2% | 3 |
| USU | 35.7% | 2 |
| Nevada | 41.0% | 1 |
3 Point Differential:
| 3s Made Differential | Points | |
| SJSU | 2.1 | 11 |
| UNM | 2.0 | 10 |
| BSU | 2.0 | 10 |
| FSU | 1.9 | 8 |
| WYO | 1.8 | 7 |
| SDSU | .6 | 6 |
| CSU | .5 | 5 |
| AFA | 0 | 4 |
| Nevada | -1.8 | 3 |
| UNLV | -1.9 | 2 |
| USU | -1.9 | 2 |
Free Throw Percentage:
| Free Throw Percentage | Points | |
| WYO | 75.1% | 11 |
| UNM | 73.2% | 10 |
| FSU | 72.2% | 9 |
| BSU | 70.5% | 8 |
| Nevada | 70.0% | 7 |
| UNLV | 67.4% | 6 |
| AFA | 67.2% | 5 |
| SDSU | 66.9% | 4 |
| SJSU | 66.1% | 3 |
| USU | 66.1% | 3 |
| CSU | 66.0% | 1 |
Free Throws Made Differential:
| Free Throw Differential | Points | |
| UNM | 6.1 | 11 |
| Nevada | 6.1 | 11 |
| WYO | 2.4 | 9 |
| UNLV | 1.3 | 8 |
| USU | .3 | 7 |
| SDSU | .1 | 6 |
| FSU | .1 | 6 |
| BSU | -.3 | 4 |
| CSU | -1.7 | 3 |
| SJSU | -1.8 | 2 |
| AFA | -3.9 | 1 |
Rebound Differential:
| Rebound Differential | Points | |
| BSU | 8.9 | 11 |
| UNLV | 4.0 | 10 |
| Nevada | 2.3 | 9 |
| CSU | 1.3 | 8 |
| SDSU | .9 | 7 |
| WYO | -.1 | 6 |
| UNM | -1.5 | 5 |
| USU | -3.6 | 4 |
| FSU | -5.4 | 3 |
| SJSU | -9.9 | 2 |
| AFA | -10.5 | 1 |
Assists Differential:
| Assists Differential | Points | |
| BSU | 4.5 | 11 |
| WYO | 4.0 | 10 |
| CSU | 3.1 | 9 |
| UNM | 1.5 | 8 |
| Nevada | .2 | 7 |
| AFA | -.1 | 6 |
| FSU | -2.0 | 5 |
| SDSU | -2.9 | 4 |
| USU | -3.0 | 3 |
| SJSU | -3.5 | 2 |
| UNLV | -4.5 | 1 |
Turnover Margin Per Game:
| Turnover Margin Per Game | Points | |
| UNM | 4.8 | 11 |
| AFA | 4.3 | 10 |
| Nevada | 2.0 | 9 |
| FSU | .9 | 8 |
| WYO | .5 | 7 |
| CSU | .2 | 6 |
| SDSU | .2 | 6 |
| UNLV | 0 | 4 |
| BSU | -1.8 | 3 |
| USU | -1.9 | 2 |
| SJSU | -2.5 | 1 |
Steals/Blocks Per Game
| Steals/Blocks Per Game | Points | |
| AFA | 15.1 | 11 |
| UNM | 12.6 | 10 |
| SJSU | 12.1 | 9 |
| USU | 11.6 | 8 |
| FSU | 11.4 | 7 |
| BSU | 10.3 | 6 |
| UNLV | 9.9 | 5 |
| SDSU | 9.6 | 4 |
| Nevada | 9.6 | 4 |
| CSU | 9.5 | 2 |
| WYO | 7.9 | 1 |
Steals and Blocks Differential:
| Steals/Blocks Differential | Points | |
| UNM | 2.5 | 11 |
| AFA | 2.0 | 10 |
| UNLV | .8 | 9 |
| BSU | .6 | 8 |
| FSU | 0 | 7 |
| SDSU | -.2 | 6 |
| CSU | -.2 | 6 |
| WYO | -.7 | 4 |
| USU | -.9 | 3 |
| SJSU | -2.4 | 2 |
| Nevada | -3.5 | 1 |
Total Points:
(143 is the maximum possible points)
| Points | |
| UNM | 121 |
| BSU | 108 |
| WYO | 94 |
| CSU | 87 |
| FSU | 82 |
| Nevada | 79 |
| SDSU | 72 |
| AFA | 65 |
| UNLV | 63 |
| USU | 52 |
| SJSU | 50 |
Notes:
- UNLV’s numbers are skewed a little due to a difficult schedule, but I think the expectation would be in the 3-7 range behind UNM and BSU.
- UNM was number 1 in SIX of the 13 different stats, and were top 3 in all but 3.
- Right now I would have UNM and BSU as Tier 1. WYO, CSU, UNLV, and FSU as Tier 2. Nevada and SDSU as Tier 3. AFA, USU and SJSU as Tier 4.
AFA Falcons:
In the first conference game of the season, the Lobos head to Colorado Springs, Colorado to take on Air Force. While Clune Arena has been a nightmare for the Lobo Men’s Team (and other Men’s Teams) over the years, the Lobos shouldn’t have too much difficulty winning the game this year. The Lobos will have the advantage in almost every single statistical category and will have the better talent on the floor. The one thing that Air Force is great at is creating turnovers, so if the Lobos are able to keep their turnover number under 15, they should have no problems winning this game. This is a game that the big 3 for the Lobos should be able to have huge games and get rest in the 4th quarter. This looks to be a better Air Force teams than the last few years, so the Lobos better show up and play or Air Force could make things very interesting in Clune Arena.
MW Predictions:
- UNM
- BSU
- WYO
- CSU
- UNLV
- FSU
- Nevada
- SDSU
- AFA
- USU
- SJSU
Coach of the Year: Mike Bradbury – UNM
Player of the Year: Jaisa Nunn – UNM
Newcomer of the Year: Tesha Buck – UNM
Rookie of the Year: N’Dea Flye – UNM
First Team- All MW: Jaisa Nunn – UNM, Cherise Beynon – UNM, Tesha Buck – UNM, Candice White – FSU, Marta Hermida – BSU
Game Info:
Who: New Mexico Lobos (12-1, 0-0) at Air Force Academy Falcons (0-11, 0-0)
When: Thursday December 28th, 6:00 PM MT
Where: Clune Arena, USAFA, Colorado Springs, Colorado
Radio: 610 AM
Stream: MW Network