The FBS Season wrapped up on Monday with Alabama beating Georgia, earning the Crimson Tide yet another National Championship. That is, unless you ask the folks out in Orlando, who believe the National Championship was decided the week before, when UCF finished their perfect season. That started us emailing back and forth about some of the flaws that we see in the sport, particularly in regard to how the playing field is tilted such that so-called Group of 5 schools, like UNM, have a nearly impossible path to even compete for the National Championship. Here is our discussion on the matter:
Jono: So, now that the college football season is over, who do you believe to be the one, true National Champion, and why is it UCF?
Zach: There is only one undefeated team in the country, and that is UCF. If we are looking for a National Champion, it should be based on the results of that season alone and not off a coach’s or school’s history. This isn’t to say that I think UCF is the most talented team, but as we have seen across sports history, the “best team” doesn’t always win the championship. Results are what matter and they went 13-0 this year. In fact, they probably would have gone 14-0 if they didn’t have a game cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. UCF did everything in their power to schedule well out of conference and with the American Athletic Conference, you could make the argument that it was the 4th best conference this year behind the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12. The second-best team in the AAC was Memphis, who finished the regular season 10-2, and both of those losses were to, get this, UCF. That sounds like a team that should have at least been in the playoff and not ranked 12th in the last College Football Playoff Rankings.
J: And on top of all that, I think it’s worth mentioning that UCF doesn’t have a ton of control over who it plays in a given season. I mean, all of these non-conference games are scheduled years in advance to the point where it’s impossible to predict whether or not that will be a good schedule or not. For example, the Lobos have Texas A&M on the schedule for 2021. Will that be a quality win that year? Probably, but maybe not. Duke probably thought that having win against Baylor this year would have looked good on their resume when they scheduled it. I have a really hard time faulting a team in college football for their schedule, especially if they’re a G5 team.
But beside the cases for UCF, I think it’s worth making the case against Alabama. And really, the case comes down to that they really shouldn’t have been in the playoffs to begin with. In my mind, the point of the playoff is to figure out who the best team is. To do this in the current four-team setup, teams should be selected such that we don’t really know if one of the teams is better than another. Is Oklahoma better than Clemson? Who knows? Let’s find out. However, with the assumption that the conference season is to determine who is the best team in the conference, then Alabama can’t be the best team in the country because they’re not even the best team in their conference.
“But wait!”, you might say. “Alabama just beat Georgia, proving they were better than the best team in the SEC!” Sure, but anything can happen in a single game, or even in two games. If Alabama only had a 40% chance of winning each of those games, then they would have a 16% of winning both. That’s rolling a dice and getting a six. Not exactly unheard of.
With only four slots in the playoffs, then there’s just no reason for a team that didn’t win its conference, or even make its conference championship game, to take up one of those slots.
Z: You are absolutely right about schedules. Did you know that UNM has a game scheduled against UCLA in 2025 and, get this, Nebraska with new Head Coach Scott Frost (and the rest of the former UCF staff) will be traveling to Tucson to take on Arizona in 2031? There is no way that you can or should gripe about a G5 non-conference schedule, when those games are scheduled 7 or more years in the future. Most people that bring up the schedule being a red flag, wouldn’t say a word if a P5 school played the same exact schedule.
You bring up great points about Alabama, who won the College Football Playoff and are named National Champions because of this. You know what should have been an elimination game for the CFP? The game between Alabama and Auburn for the SEC West Division Title, which they lost 26-14. Not exactly a last-second field goal loss. Auburn and Wisconsin would have been in the playoff if they didn’t have to play in their respective conference championship games, which Alabama didn’t even qualify for. This takes me back to 2007, when Missouri beat Kansas and went to the Big 12 Title Game, which they lost to Oklahoma. Because of that, Kansas was rewarded with a BCS Bowl Game while Missouri was sent to a smaller bowl. A lot of people say that every game matters, but it doesn’t matter if Alabama doesn’t make the SEC Title game?
On top of that, you know who UCF beat in their bowl game? Auburn, who beat both Alabama and Georgia this season.
People say that Alabama passed the “eye test”, so they should be in the College Football, why is the eye test a silly argument for deciding the four teams that should be in the playoff?
J: I think there are probably a few reasons why it’s flawed, but the biggest is that it becomes really subjective really quickly. That is, if the committee was made up of a different group of people, then the four teams might not be the same. Maybe this group really thinks that SEC teams are awesome and will give them the benefit of the doubt while a different group is all about that Big10 action. It doesn’t really provide a clear path to the championship except to win and to look good while doing it. In UCF’s case, they won, but I guess they didn’t look good enough doing it?
Z: UCF dominated their conference and every game they played during the regular season. Their only close game was in the AAC Title game against the very good Memphis team, so I don’t know that they weren’t winning big enough.
In my mind, basing the eye test off of pure talent and recruiting stars and pro potential is easy to get trapped in. Keep in mind that the BIG NAME Schools are the teams that get almost all of the 5 star players and the next sure-thing-Hall-of-Famer in the NFL. The likes of Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State will have 35+ pros on a given team. How many times do you listen to a broadcast and they elaborate how good of a recruit they were (Freshman and Sophomore year) and how high in the draft they will go in the draft (Junior and Senior year). Keep in mind that ESPN controls the rights for broadcasting the College Football Playoff and the NFL Draft, so they have a stake in this too. The media can shape the water cooler talk and the narrative of who the “best” four teams are.
It reminds me of the year when Boise State (WAC) and TCU (MW) were both top 8 teams in College Football, and both made BCS Bowl Games. What did the people making the decisions do? They had them play each other instead of letting them play the “name” schools. People didn’t want to see that matchup, not because it wouldn’t be a great game, it was because everyone wanted to see them play the “Goliaths” of College Football. It is hard to break in when the gatekeepers just will not let you in.
J: It has become harder and harder to shake the belief that everything in the FBS, from recruiting to revenue to shots at the National Championship, are rigged so that the rich get richer. So, given that we’re a Lobo blog, it’s worth thinking about how this affects the underclass.
Something I’ve been thinking a lot about recently is how many seasons in a row do you think the Lobos would have to go undefeated to finally get an invite to the CFP in its current form?
Z: As we saw with UCF this year, that it will take more than one undefeated season, andtwo would be pushing it. Plus, the Lobos at that point would be losing most if not all of their coaching staff like UCF did. Why? Because P5 schools can hire and pay their 8th, 9th and 10th assistants more money than DC/OC’s at the UNM level. I think you could make the case that UNM or CSU having back-2-back undefeated season would make the Pac 12 or Big 12 think about adding them to their conference, which might be an easier path to the playoffs. I think it would be year 3 or 4 before UNM would have enough respect to even be in the CFP conversation. Which tells you how the current system has huge flaws.
J: That’s kind of depressing. I think the optimist in me thinks that two would do it (like, if UCF went undefeated again this next year, even with a new coaching staff, they might have enough visibility to get an invite). The realist in me thinks it would take at least three. And then, if they, or another G5 school got an invite, and they happened to lose the first game, it will just be confirmation that they don’t belong and set all of the G5 back further. Pay no mind to the fact that the Big 12 has yet to win a game in the CFP.
Z: Great point about the Big 12. Keep in mind that the NCAA gave in to allow a league with 10 members a championship game (rule is you have to have at least 12 until this happened), but money talks.
So, what do you think are possible solutions to fix this system that is geared towards helping the rich?
J: The only thing I can think of is to force them to give the others a seat at the table. That would almost certainly include expanding the playoffs to at least 8 teams, if not go full FCS and have 24(!). 8 feels more likely, so here would be my proposal: you have to win your conference championship to be eligible to make the CFP. If there were 16 or 24 teams, then sure, we can have at-larges, but not with such a limited number. I don’t want to expand the number of teams just to see four SEC teams make it (this year would have apparently had three SEC, two Big 10, and one from each of the other P5 conferences).
So, with 8 slots and 10 eligible teams, then you can have a committee decide who the top 8 teams are and what their seeding should be. Based on the CFP rankings, here is what the seedings would have been this year:
- Clemson
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Ohio State
- USC
- UCF
- Boise State
- FAU (Making a judgement call there. No other G5 teams were in the top-25 CFP rankings)
But what about Notre Dame or BYU or any other independents? Make them join a conference. I don’t really care.
This could potentially have a bunch of ripple effects, where some schools could consider dropping down from a P5 conference to a G5 to give them a better shot at making the CFP, recruits could find non-P5 schools appealing because they would still have a shot to play for a championship, and money would be spread out.
Feels like that would make College Football healthier, in general.
Z: I agree that having at least an 8-team playoff is needed. I would be a bigger fan of 12, 16, 24 or even 32. That said, I absolutely agree that you on making a rule where you have to be in a conference to make the playoff. That would make BYU come back to the MW and have Notre Dame joining the ACC for all sports.
One of the biggest problems I have with the FBS is the fact that UNM and other schools in the G5 have no realistic shot of winning the National Title. It is the only sport in the NCAA where only the select few have a shot to win a title going into the year. Think about how awesome it has been the last few years with the UNM Women’s Cross Country team. They had one of the most dominant teams in NCAA history in 2015, but in college football, they wouldn’t have had the chance to win the National Championship if things were rigged the same way. I am ready for change to come to the FBS, and I hope that the changes come soon.