The Lobos (12-12, 7-4) have a huge game Tuesday night against second-place Boise State (19-4, 9-2) at The PIT. The Lobos have positioned themselves well through 11 games of conference play, as they sit all alone in third place. During their first meeting in Boise, the Broncos jumped out to a huge lead in the first half, giving the Lobos only a small chance of winning the game. The interesting thing about the first game was that the Broncos didn’t hit a ton of three’s to claim their huge lead, instead relying almost fully on layups. It would not be a surprise to see them try to replicate that success tonight.
In my opinion, it is easy to see that Nevada and Boise State are the top two teams in the conference.That said, the group from 3-8 could end up in a lot of different ways. Because of that, there is a lot at stake for the Lobos tonight, with effects that could continue over the next few weeks.
Conference Tournament Seeding:
There is a very good chance that both Nevada and Boise State’s finish with a conference record no lower than 13-5, which in all probability means the top two seeds are set (in some order) for the MWC Tournament. That means the race for the next three seeds, and the first round bye that comes with them, will be between six teams: UNM, Wyoming, Fresno State, SDSU, UNLV and USU. If a team is able to get to 12 wins, they should be in great shape to claim the number three seed and 11 wins should claim you a top five seed. The Lobos have 7 wins through 11 games, so they would need to win 5 of 7 to have a great shot to earn the 3 seed, while winning 4 of 7 should claim them either the 3rd, 4th or 5th seed.
Tiebreakers:
The Lobos are in an interesting spot. They only have the one game against Nevada this year, which the Lobos lost, meaning that any team with a win over Nevada would have the tiebreaker over the Lobos if they split the two games against the Lobos and Nevada wins the league. Given that not many teams have or will beat Nevada this year, the results against Boise could start to come into play. If the Lobos are able to beat Boise State tonight to go 1-1, that could give them the advantage in several tiebreakers.
As for specific teams, the Lobos have the tiebreaker over SDSU if they do end up with the same record, as the Lobos won the lone meeting. The Lobos could end up 1-1 against a number of teams, as they have won the first meetings against Wyoming (home), UNLV (road), while losing the first meetings (all on the road) against Fresno State and Utah State. That also means that with wins, the Lobos could earn head-to-head tiebreakers with Wyoming and UNLV, and take away the head-to-head tiebreakers with home wins against Fresno State and Utah State. Perhaps the most important of these would be the game against Wyoming, as they have a win vs. Nevada, giving them a potential advantage in several tiebreakers. Of course, other teams still have shots at Nevada that could give them a similar advantage.
Remaining Games:
The Lobos head down the stretch with seven remaining games: Boise State, at AFA, Utah State, at CSU, UNLV, at Wyoming, Fresno State. With the Lobos having four remaining home games, they could reach the 11 win mark if they just win their home games. Going 2-1 on the road is realistic, meaning that they do have some margin for error to remain a top 5 team in the standings. One thing that makes this game against Boise State a huge game, is it is followed by four games that the Lobos should be favored to win. That gives them the opportunity tog et to the 11 win mark with two games left on the schedule. Lobo fans should show up for these four remaining games to help the Lobos reach their absolute ceiling during this conference season.
Conference Tournament:
As we all should know by now, the Mountain West is a 11-team basketball conference, where every team participates in the conference tournament. The top five teams in the conference regular season standings are given first round byes in the Tournament and will have to win three games in three days to earn the auto-bid into the NCAA Tournament. The bottom six teams will all play in a first round game and would have to win four games in four days. How important is finishing top five to the Lobos come Conference Tournament time? Given their style of play and their depth issues, it could be huge to play one fewer game. On top of that, the Lobos play a style that could give teams huge fits if they play later in the tournament, and the fresher their legs, the more impactful that style can be. I do think the Lobos would benefit greatly being on the same side of the bracket as Boise State instead of Nevada, so the third seed is the target here. I think we can all agree that Nevada is the best team, which does play a factor into this, but I rather play the team that basically plays a 6 man rotation in their third game instead of their second.
Putting The Conference On Notice:
After the first-game showing against Boise State, there were huge questions about how the Lobos would do the rest of the conference season. As it turns out, so far, that the first Boise State game was the outlier and not the game against Nevada. And really, the Lobos have been in every game except that game against Boise State. This has shown teams that you have to be prepared for the Lobos or they will beat you. What Coach Weir has done this season is nothing short of a miracle. Not bad for a team picked 9th in the preseason polls.
Potential Conference Awards:
I think it is pretty easy to say that if the Lobos finish out the season strong, that Coach Weir will be in the conversation for Coach of the Year. And in that case, I think the only way he doesn’t win the award is if Nevada finishes with only 1 loss, winning the league by four or more games and the Lobos finish 5th or 6th. At this point, I am confident in saying that this award is a two coach race between Weir and Musselman.
The Lobos have four players that could factor into All-Conference teams in Joe Furstinger, Antino Jackson, Anthony Mathis and Makuach Maluach. While it is hard to see the Lobos landing one on the first team, the Lobos could land 3 on the second or third team.
At Stake For Boise State:
While this game isn’t a make or break for them to win the conference regular season, a win would put them in a decent position to win win the conference, depending on their game against Nevada. A loss against UNM could potentially hurt them in tiebreaker scenarios if the Lobos finish in third place, since Nevada would be 1-0 against UNM and Boise State would be 1-1. While the Lobos have played well as of late, they don’t bring much in terms of RPI, which would hurt Boise State chances of an at-large bid with a loss.
Chandler Hutchison has a legit shot, and is probably the favorite, to win the MWC Player of the Year Award. One thing that is going to affect the outcome of the POY Award will be the separation between Nevada and Boise State. If Nevada ends up winning the conference by 2 or more games, it would become more likely that Nevada would have the Player of the Year on their team.
Jono’s Rooting Interests for Tonight/Tomorrow:
UNM over Boise State: Obviously.
CSU over AFA: Having CSU end up in the 8-9 game is probably a better scenario than having them in the 7-10. However, this game probably doesn’t matter much.
SDSU over FSU: Both teams are just one loss back of the Lobos, so when in doubt, don’t give someone a road win. (I’m okay watching the Aztecs lose)
USU over Wyoming: I’m more worried about Wyoming than Utah State, so it feels like giving the Cowboys another loss would give the Lobos a little more margin of error.
Nevada over UNLV: UNLV with win over the likely regular season champions would give them a huge advantage in tiebreaker scenarios, so avoiding that would be good. And, in all honesty, Nevada winning out, and then not winning the conference tournament, might be our best chance of a two-bid MWC at this point.
Conference Standings:
| Team | Record (Conference +/-) |
| Nevada | 9-1 (+4) |
| Boise State | 9-2 (+3) |
| New Mexico | 7-4 (+2) |
| Wyoming | 6-4 (+1) |
| Utah State | 6-5 (0) |
| Fresno State | 6-5 (0) |
| UNLV | 5-5 (0) |
| SDSU | 5-5 (0) |
| CSU | 3-9 (-3) |
| AFA | 2-7 (-1) |
| SJSU | 0-11 (-6) |
Remaining Games:
| Team | Remaining Games |
| Nevada | UNLV, SDSU, @ BSU, @USU, SJSU, CSU, @ UNLV, @ SDSU |
| Boise State | @ UNM, @ USU, Nevada, AFA, @ CSU, @ SDSU, WYO |
| New Mexico | BSU, @ AFA, USU, @ WYO, UNLV, @CSU, FSU |
| Wyoming | USU, @ UNLV, @ SDSU, SJSU, UNM, @ FSU, AFA, @ BSU |
| Utah State | @ WYO, BSU, @ UNM, Nevada, @ AFA, @ SJSU, UNLV |
| Fresno State | SDSU, @ SJSU, CSU, @ UNLV, WYO, @ AFA, @ UNM |
| UNLV | @ Nevada, WYO, AFA, @ SDSU, FSU, @UNM, Nevada, @ USU |
| SDSU | @ FSU, @ Nevada, WYO, UNLV, @ AFA, @SJSU, BSU, Nevada |
| CSU | @ AFA, SJSU, @ FSU, BSU, @ Nevada, UNM |
| AFA | CSU, UNM, @ UNLV, @ BSU, SDSU, USU, FSU, @ WYO, SJSU |
| SJSU | @ CSU, FSU, @ WYO, @ Nevada, SDSU, USU, @ AFA |