The sixth-seeded Lobos (23-9) advanced to the quarterfinals of the MW Tournament with a dominating win against SJSU last night and will take on the third-seeded Wyoming Cowgirls tonight. In the two meetings during the regular season, the Cowgirls went 2-0 with an 11-point win in Wyoming and a 1-point win in The PIT. As we have seen in the past, it can be very difficult to beat a team three times in one year and this time it could help the Lobos. In the first two meetings, Wyoming was able to control the pace of play (both games they were in the 60s) and keep the Lobos from finding separation in either game. There are some adjustments that the Lobos will be looking to make, finding ways to take every single little advantage to position themselves with a birth in the semifinals on Wednesday.

Cherise Beynon:

This probably won’t surprise people, but the Lobos need Cherise Beynon to be the all-caps CHERISE BEYNON. As we have seen throughout her career, she can win games almost by herself when she is in attack mode and is able to hit 45%+ of her shots. However, there are times that she can get caught up trying to do to much and ends up have a very inefficient game. If the Lobos are able to get a 20+ points on 15 or fewer shots, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists, the Lobos should be in a very good spot to advance. If the Lobos don’t get a good game from Beynon, it could be a long night for the Cherry and Silver.

Jaisa Nunn:

As I have mentioned many times on Twitter this year, Jaisa Nunn is Nunnstoppable, capable of doing incredible things during the course of a basketball game. The Lobos need to remember this throughout the course of the game and allow Nunn to have a huge game. Wyoming will try to make it difficult for the Lobos to get the ball to Nunn, but simple dribble drives by Beynon should be able to open things up for the Lobos. There will be times where just getting the ball on the glass could be a good play, as Nunn could dominate the offensive glass and score 10+ points off putbacks and free throws. I’d like to see them make sure that there isn’t a stretch of more than 3 minutes where Nunn doesn’t get a post touch.

3 Point BUCKets:

One thing that will likely decide the game is the three-point line. In the 1-point loss in The PIT, Wyoming hit 10 threes and had a +15 point advantage from the three-point line. Simply put, unless Nunn goes for 35+, the Lobos can’t find themselves -15 from three and expect to win this game. Teesha Buck is huge for this. If Buck is able to hit 4 or 5 threes herself, it will open things up for Beynon and Nunn to be able to attack at different levels. The Lobos need to find a way to hit 10+ threes in the game, and aside from Buck, this is where Madi Washington, Laneah Bryan, and Beynon come in.

Defense:

This Wyoming team reminds me of a few of the Alford-coached teams at UNM, in that they are very effective on offense, but don’t look to push the pace. Wyoming wants this game to be in the 50s or 60s, so the Lobos need to limit the good looks that Liv Roberts gets and make sure that they don’t allow shooters to get wide-open looks. There can’t be any defensive letdowns in this game, because every possession has a larger impact than they do in a game at the pace the Lobos want to play at. Someone that I think can have a huge impact on this game is Antonia Anderson. I wouldn’t mind seeing her get around 20 minutes in this game and see if she can give Roberts or other Wyoming players problems with her length and athletic ability.

Home Crowd:

As we have seen for many years, the Lobos are the one team that gains a home court advantage in the Women’s Tournament. While it won’t be in full force tonight, the crowd will be pro Lobos and that could play a huge factor in this game. If the Lobo faithful are able to make this a true home game, the Lobos should be able to feed of the energy of the crowd and wear down the Wyoming team. The Lobos have been a way better team at home this year, so a good crowd should benefit them greatly.

Prediction:

The Lobos have been playing well on defense since the bad stretch in the middle of the season and have found a good balance of Beynon and Nunn. I think that the Lobos playing yesterday will benefit them, since they were able to get their first-year players experience playing in the tournament and in the Thomas and Mack. I think this will be a game the Lobos could get in the high 60s or low 70s and put Wyoming out of their comfort zone. I expect a huge game from both Beynon and Nunn leading the Lobos to a 5-point victory. It is time to survive and advance and I think the Lobos will do just that.