As we hit the first full offseason of the Paul Weir Era of Lobo Men’s Basketball, wee see that a lot has changed in the last 13+ months. Just about everything from last March, from the general perception of the program to the roster makeup. Going into next season, there are only two players on the roster, Seniors Dane Kuiper and Anthony Mathis, that were recruited and played for Craig Neal. Mathis, for his part, was almost gone too, but thankfully ended up staying and playing a huge part in the 2017-2018 season. It is absolutely incredible that Weir has been able to turn the roster over in such a short period of time and end up with a team expected to be at the top of the Mountain West.
Today, we’re looking at where the roster stands right now (I don’t foresee any more changes), what its strengths and weaknesses are, and what the team could achieve this upcoming season.
Returning Scholarship Players:
Senior Guard Anthony Mathis
Senior Wing Dane Kuiper
Sophomore Wing Makuach Maluach
Sophomore Post Vladimir Pinchuk
While there are only four players on this year’s roster that played this season, there is plenty to like about this group. After struggling to find playing time his first two years at UNM, Mathis became a cheat code on offense, and in the process becoming a Third Team All-Mountain West selection by both the Media and Coaches. While Kuiper struggled with his shot after hurting a finger on his shooting hand, he was a key cog on the Lobos roster with his very good/great defense. Maluach was a welcomed sight for Lobo fans, as he showed signs of an All-Mountain West player and was up there with Brandon McCoy and Jalen McDaniels as the top Mountain West Freshman. Maluach also (IMO) put together the best Freshman Season by a Lobo since Kendall Williams. While some fans would get frustrated by the play of Pinchuk, he showed some nice flashes and was farther along as a Freshman big than Joe Furstinger, Cam Bairstow, and Daniel Faris were. I am intrigued by what Pinchuk could become in the next couple of years.
Eligible Scholarship Players:
Junior Guard JaQuan Lyle
Junior Post Carlton Bragg
Sophomore Wing Vance Jackson
Lyle and Jackson have been on campus all of last season and were able to practice and work out with the team. Bragg, who will be eligible either at the start of the season or end of the first semester (depending on an appeal), was at Arizona State for the first part of last season. All three players elevate the talent level of the roster, and all three players have experience playing basketball at a very high level. Lyle started most of his two years at Ohio State, averaging over 10 points a game. Bragg started his career at Kansas, where he was never able to find consistent playing time and has the talent to take off in the Mountain West. Jackson played his Freshman season at Connecticut, where he averaged 8 points a game and shot 40% from 3. The Lobos will probably go as far as these three players take them.
Incoming Scholarship Players:
Junior Forward Corey Manigault
Junior Forward Tajuan Agee
Junior Forward Karim Ezzeddine
Sophomore Guard Keith McGee
Freshman Guard Drue Drinnon
Freshman Wing Tavian Percy
A talented group of three Junior College Forwards that will ad great length and athletic ability to a team that wants to press and get into passing lanes. While I don’t know if any of the three will find their way into the starting lineup this year (unless everyone ends up in the starting lineup again), there is a lot to like between the three. I am intrigued to see how Coach Weir will use them in the rotation.
After losing both point guards on the roster last year, Coach Weir was able to add two very talented replacements in Sophomore Keith McGee and Freshman Drue Drinnon. McGee was named MVP of the JuCo National Championship, where he lead his team to the Championship. Drinnon was the point guard for the team that finished second in the country in High School Basketball. Both players will be fighting for playing time at the position and could end up seeing an even split between the two. Freshman Wing Percy is an exciting late get for Coach Weir and staff, and while his role on this year’s team is unknown at this point, he is someone to keep an eye on that could surprise like Maluach last season.
Roster Breakdown by Class:
Seniors (2): Anthony Mathis, Dane Kuiper
Juniors (5): JaQuan Lyle, Carlton Bragg, Corey Manigault, Tajuan Agee, Karim Ezzeddine
Sophomores (4): Makuach Maluach, Vladimir Pinchuk, Vance Jackson, Keith McGee
Freshman (2): Drue Drinnon, Tavian Percy
Strengths:
Top Level Talent: The first thing that stands out to me is the level of talent at the top of the roster. When you can run a lineup that has Lyle, Jackson, Mathis, Bragg, and Maluach, you have to like where you stand in the Mountain West. All five of those players have the potential to be All-Mountain West caliber players. If you want a 6th player that has three years of experience, the Lobos have Kuiper. Nevada (with the Martin twins) is the only team that I would give a top-end talent edge to in the Conference.
Size: The Lobos will be loaded with players between 6’5-6’10, as they have 10 players in that range, which will help on defense and rebounding. The Lobos will also have a lot of players that will be able to play 2 or 3 spots on the floor. The Lobos could run a lineup with 6’5 Lyle, 6’5 Maluach, 6’7 Kuiper, 6’8 Jackson, and 6’10 Bragg. Talk about a nightmare for opponents.
Shooting: The Lobos will shoot a lot of 3 pointers like they did this last year, and they will also hit a lot of 3 pointers. Mathis is on the short list of best shooters in College Basketball, while Lyle, Jackson, Maluach, and Kuiper have all shown they can shoot 38+% from distance. On Thursday, I asked Kevin Sweeney (Twitter: @CBB_Central) how many 3 pointers Mathis would hit this year. His answer was 120 (which is roughly 4 per game). As a whole, I would expect the Lobos to average 10-12 made 3 pointers per game.
Depth:
After only having 10 Scholarship players last season and a couple of games where they had barely enough players for a layup line, the Lobos will not have that problem this year, as they will have 13 players that are all eligible to play. And, I don’t have a fear of any of those players not being capable. This depth in year two of a total rebuild is very impressive and there is a lot of credit that needs to be given to Coach Weir, Coach Harriman, Coach Mason, and Coach Robinson. Weir will have a lot of options at his disposal and should be able to do creative things for all the little advantages that can be gained on the opponent.
Weaknesses:
Point Guard Experience: I want to be clear that I don’t doubt the talent of either McGee and Drinnon, but a concern I do have is their experience of playing the position at the Division 1 level. I think this is a position where we could see some growing pains early in the season and we may see Lyle or Mathis play some at the position. However, I expect both McGee and Drinnon playing key roles on the team when Conference play comes along.
Front Court Experience: The Lobos lost key cogs to their frontcourt with the graduations of Furstinger and Logwood, and it could be a struggle early if Bragg isn’t ruled eligible to start the season. If Bragg is eligible, this concern is lessened some because of the experience he and Jackson have playing at the Division 1 level. The Lobos have a lot of options at the 4 and 5 spots, so they should be able to find opportunities for each player to make an impact.
The Outlook For the 2018-2019 Season:
Things are very early and they will change from now to the start of conference play. Right now, you have to have Nevada as the favorite in the Mountain West, as they could be a Top 10 team in the country if the Martin twins do return to school (although, how their scholarship situation plays out could prove fascinating in its own right). After them, I think you have to give the nod to the Lobos. I think if things do go right, it isn’t crazy to think that the Lobos could challenge Nevada for the Conference Title. If this team gels, you are looking at a team that could make some national noise and could be in the hunt for an at-large bid, which would make for an extremely exciting year of Lobo basketball.