During the Mountain West Men’s Basketball Media Day, the question was brought up if the Mountian West will be going to a 20-game schedule shortly. The answer is probably yes, but the question is what effect does it have on the Mountain West programs, and the Mountain West at large. Is it a smart thing for the Mountain West to do, and does it make sense in the current landscape of Division 1 College Basketball? There are different ways to look at this question and how it affects the New Mexico Lobos Program. Let’s go through some of those questions here:
What does the landscape say?
Over the course of the last 5 to 10 years, because of the way scheduling is trending for the Big 6 conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac12, and SEC), it has become way more difficult for programs not in those conference to make their schedule (unless you are a Gonzaga type program). Beyond that, it has made it way more difficult for the non-Power Conference programs to earn Top 100 wins, as they basically don’t get chances to play the top teams and if they do, they have to do it on the road. With the added importance of the need for Top 100 wins and the money that comes from NCAA Tournament shares, the Big 6 Conferences have gone away from scheduling teams from the next tier of conferences (AAC, A10, and MW) to limit the chances that they can receive for quality wins, and thus chances to bolster their tournament resumes. It has become a way for the rich to get richer and the gap continues to get wider and wider. Most of the Big 6 Conference teams will have a schedule that consists of an Exempt Tournament, neutral games, conference matchups against another Big 6 conference, other Big 6 home and homes, and a lot of low Division 1 Conference Teams. If the landscape doesn’t allow you to schedule games against Big 6 teams, you are behind in who you can schedule. And if the NCAA Tournament Committee wants to reward Top 100 wins and not taking into account what the teams did to schedule games, it will be very difficult for non-Big 6 Conferences to have more than two teams in the NCAA Tournament. Something else that has happened the last few years is the move to 20 conference games for most of the Big 6 Conferences. The big change for the Mountain West is when the Pac12 moves to a 20-game conference schedule. It greatly impacts Mountain West programs’ scheduling, as that is 24 possible quality non-conference games for Mountain West programs that will go out the window, leaving them with 24 matches that they’ll have to fill with teams from lesser conferences. So, if there is a time to go to a 20-game conference slate for the Mountain West, it is now.
Why are exempt tournaments even more important now?
If you are unable to schedule home and homes with Big 6 Conference programs, and even find it difficult to get road games or neutral games against these programs what do you have to hope for? A great exempt tournament with a great field and the chance to earn a few wins against Big 6 Programs. Most of the exempt tournaments have a few outcomes that you hope doesn’t happen, and if you can avoid the worst-case scenario you should be in good shape going into conference play. For the Lobos this season, they will have Auburn (SEC) in the first game of their tournament in New York and could also have a game against Wisconsin (Big Ten). If they can do well in the tournament, the Lobos will have games that will do well for them come March. For the Mountain West and conferences that are similar to it, it is very important for them to have as many teams in good exempt tournaments and for those teams to do well in those opportunities. Exempt tournaments will continue to gain importance as the years go by as it becomes even harder for teams to schedule Power Conference teams.
Why should we avoid teams with a terrible KenPom rating?
One of the easiest ways to destroy a non-conference schedule and resume is by playing multiple teams with poor ratings (e.g., 300 KenPom or worse) and having them destroy your metrics. You can get by playing one of those games a year in non-Power Conferences, but you can’t schedule more than one of those in a given year. There is no benefit of playing these games (unless it’s a mandated game or a regional team) since a loss destroys any chance of an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. The Lobos last year played UTEP (299 KenPom) and Central Arkansas (302 KenPom) in the non-conference schedule. UTEP is a game that should be played (regional team and a rivalry matchup), but playing both Central Arkansas and Cal State Northridge (253 KenPom) is something you shouldn’t do if you can avoid it. While it really didn’t matter for at-large chances last year, the non-conference schedule last year with those three games and two games against non-Division 1 programs gave the Lobos very few chances to make their case for earning a ticket to the Big Dance. Having two non-conference games taken off the board makes it where you could still play one non-Division 1 game and get rid of scheduling the bottom teams of your schedule. This season the Lobos non-conference schedule has a lot of teams that could finish in the Top 150-175 and have only one non-Division 1 game (ENMU) and one preseason 300+ KenPom game in McNeese State, which is part of the exempt tournament with Auburn and Wisconsin or Richmond. You take that game if it comes with those other two. This year, the two games that probably would have been left of the schedule for a 20-game MW Schedule would be Houston Baptist (282 KenPom) and UC Davis (275 KenPom). While the Lobos schedule this year is lacking big-name programs for home and home, I would be okay with this kind of schedule moving forward.
Aren’t we losing opportunities for good games?
While there is truth to you losing the possibilities for two good non-conference games, those aren’t the games that you are going to get rid of if the MW did move to a 20-game schedule. Why? You don’t get rid of things that are of value for your program and the conference as a whole. Remember that the Mountain West needs as many good programs in the conference for there to be good or great wins in conference and no bad losses that the selection committee can look at for a reason not to include your team. If New Mexico and the other ten programs in the Mountain West are able to put together a good schedule with plenty of Top 150 games, you will enter the conference season with basically every program in the conference with a Top 200 rating (which is huge for the conference). If someone says that they will lose a good game because of the conference schedule, tell them that you would like to see Utah State and New Mexico play twice this season instead of once.
How does this affect the conference tournament?
It makes it clear which team should have which seed. One of the biggest arguments for me for the Mountain West going to a 20-game schedule is the double round-robin that the whole conference would get, meaning that there would be no more silly tie-breakers and we wouldn’t have to see which schools get the schedule breaks to finish higher in the standings. This also means that you would get to see every team come to your school to play, and your team has to go to their building. This culture also helps build rivalries amongst fan bases and programs alike. This also takes away the chance for the best two teams in a given year only playing once, like in 2017 Nevada and Colorado State played once on the last day of the season in Reno, the winner of that game was going to be the 1 seed since they would have the tie-breaker. It was great when the Mountain West was a 9 team league and you played a double round-robin. Take us back to getting a lay of the land of the conference and leave everything on the court, not in debates.
What needs to happen across the MW?
If you have a couple of teams that don’t jump on board with decent scheduling, it can set the whole conference back. This year on KenPom’s Preseason Rankings, the Mountain West has six teams in the Top 106 and nine in the Top 171 which is good for the Mountain West, since all those teams could possibly finish in the Top 150. The problem comes with having two teams towards the bottom, in Wyoming (283) and SJSU (332). The conference needs Wyoming to climb near the Top 200 to help the conference, and hope that SJSU isn’t one of the worst teams in the country this season. SJSU does have a good schedule this year (a lot of good teams) but they need to win a couple to get in the Top 300. Wyoming has a schedule that has Top 75 games, which is great to see them get those games, but a bunch of 200+ games that the conference needs them to win a majority of those games to be a help to the other nine teams. If the conference can get to where every team is a Top 200 team, you don’t have any damaging games that destroy your metrics. You don’t want to find out in March that your team didn’t make the NCAA Tournament because they had a road loss in San Jose.